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petec

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SafetyinNumbers Veteran

SafetyinNumbers

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Crip1 said:

Two dispirate thoughts:

 

What a change from a decade ago when conversations like this would be focused on “How badly they did on an investment their getting rid of” as opposed to the current “How can we calculate how much money they made on this investment”. 


Fairfax and EuroBank are down today on the news. That’s not remotely bothersome, but it’s curious as I can’t see anything here that can be painted as a negative to the short, intermediate or long term value of either firm. Just strange. Years ago there would seem to be a 2-3 day delay in FFH pricing appreciation when they released positive earnings. It was really odd, but it was consistent for multiple quarters. Maybe a redux of that? Either way, this looks to be another example of monetizing value that we had very little, if any, knowledge of. 

 

-Crip
 


I know most here are long term so my flow explanations for short term moves may be annoying but I think FFH was weak today along with other P&C names because institutions were rotating into more economically sensitive names like banks, Brookfield etc… Just another opportunity to add for those that are looking to establish a position. It’s also easier to sell FFH this time of year as the stock tends to underperform XFN from June 30-Oct 31 b/c of hurricane season. I think this year can be an exception b/c of the exceptional Q2 that seems to be coming and a potential add to the RBC Focus List and the elusive S&PTSX 60. 
 

FFH has only outperformed XFN twice in the past 10 years during this period.

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Parsad
Parsad

Yeah, that would be nicer and more fair to those that don't want to sell and understand the value of the company, but really, in a capitalist market, we're bitching about a company making a capitalist

petec
petec

This board makes me smile.    COBF when Prem bought at $6.50: oh FFS. Why can’t he just pay up for quality growth like everyone else?   COBF when Prem offers $14.45 to minorities:

lessthaniv
lessthaniv

They are simply offering a price they are willing to pay to acquire the outstanding shares.  I’m sure most of us have placed a low ball bid on the shares of a company we like at some point.   B

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Viking Grand Master

Viking

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Crip1 said:

Two dispirate thoughts:

 

What a change from a decade ago when conversations like this would be focused on “How badly they did on an investment their getting rid of” as opposed to the current “How can we calculate how much money they made on this investment”. 


Fairfax and EuroBank are down today on the news. That’s not remotely bothersome, but it’s curious as I can’t see anything here that can be painted as a negative to the short, intermediate or long term value of either firm. Just strange. Years ago there would seem to be a 2-3 day delay in FFH pricing appreciation when they released positive earnings. It was really odd, but it was consistent for multiple quarters. Maybe a redux of that? Either way, this looks to be another example of monetizing value that we had very little, if any, knowledge of. 

 

-Crip


The key takeaway for me from the Praktiker news is further confirmation that Fairfax continues to execute exceptionally well with its collection of equity holdings. It really is amazing what they have been able to accomplish since about 2018. 
 

Praktiker was one of the legacy holdings (purchased before 2018) that they decided to keep. It is now being monetized for what looks like an exceptional gain.

 

Praktiker was a consolidated holding. It is a good example of the significant value that has been building for years at Fairfax with this bucket of holdings (economic value that was not being captured in the reported accounting results).
 

In recent years, Fairfax has significantly increased the size and number of companies in this bucket (recent additions: Recipe, Grivalia Hospitality, Sleep Country, Meadow Foods and Peak Achievement). It will be interesting to follow reported results for this group of holdings. My guess is economic value creation will continue to run ahead of the accounting results. Over time, this will provide another large and growing stream of ‘surprise’ earnings for Fairfax (when Fairfax monetizes the ‘hidden’ asset). 
 

@Crip1, you make a great point. We have stopped complaining about the equities that Fairfax owns. And now we are debating how much money they have made on their equities - is it a really big number? Or an obscenely big number? As a long term follower of the company, it is an incredible shift in the narrative (that has been slowly playing out over a couple of years). A similar shift is playing out with their P/C insurance business.
 

In terms of narrative for Fairfax as a company, we reached maximum pessimism in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, the narrative continued to be quite negative on the company. In wasn’t until 2023 that it was ok for an investor to admit they owned Fairfax - but even then, detractors felt it was a head fake (and therefore likely a stupid idea to own the stock). In 2024, it became indisputable that Fairfax results had been transformed (and for the better). But the multiple given to the stock continued to be low (small premium to BV, but still well below peers). In 2024, the sentiment gauge for Fairfax probably got back to 5 out of 10. Half way through 2025 (today), my guess is the sentiment gauge for Fairfax is probably around 6 out of 10. Much better than it was 5 short years ago. Some optimism is building - but it is not excessive. And it is certainly not euphoric. 

 

It will be interesting to see how the next couple of years play out. It really has been - and is - a special time to own this company. For investors who made Fairfax a concentrated position in 2020, it has been like winning the lottery every year for 5-straight years - it has been a very surreal experience (for me anyways).

Edited by Viking
MMM20 Grand Master

MMM20

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Viking said:

In terms of narrative for Fairfax as a company, we reached maximum pessimism in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, the narrative continued to be quite negative on the company. In wasn’t until 2023 that it was ok for an investor to admit they owned Fairfax - but even then, detractors felt it was a head fake (and therefore likely a stupid idea to own the stock). In 2024, it became indisputable that Fairfax results had been transformed (and for the better). But the multiple given to the stock continued to be low (small premium to BV, but still well below peers). In 2024, the sentiment gauge for Fairfax probably got back to 5 out of 10. Half way through 2025 (today), my guess is the sentiment gauge for Fairfax is probably around 6 out of 10. Much better than it was 5 short years ago. Some optimism is building - but it is not excessive. And it is certainly not euphoric. 

 

Agree with this framing. Maybe we need a new big data algorithmic AI proprietary indicator:

 

image.thumb.png.7274c14305a926ca0e49e33523b2da5b.png

 

Edited by MMM20
Hoodlum Experienced

Hoodlum

Posted
Posted

It will be interesting to see if Fairfax acquired additional CLF stock recently.  It is almost back to where it was last fall after a 50% runup this month.

gfp Grand Master

gfp

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

It will be interesting to see if Fairfax acquired additional CLF stock recently.  It is almost back to where it was last fall after a 50% runup this month.

 

The only thing we know so far is that they didn't go above 10% on it, even at the lows where that wasn't a lot of money.  

Viking Grand Master

Viking

Posted
Posted

Orla Mining has reported an issue requiring the company to temporarily halt operations at its Camino Rojo mine. The stock is currently down 13.5%. This will be something to monitor.

 

https://orlamining.com/news/orla-mining-reports-pit-wall-event-at-camino-rojo/

 

Vancouver, BC – July 23, 2025 – Orla Mining Ltd. (TSX: OLA; NYSE: ORLA) (“Orla” or the “Company”) reports that an uncontrolled material movement event occurred today on the pit wall at its Camino Rojo Oxide Mine in Zacatecas, Mexico. 

 

The event occurred along the temporary north wall of the open pit, which included ore material expected to be mined as part of the ultimate open pit. There were no injuries or equipment damage as a result of the material movement, which was detected early by the pit monitoring systems. The event was caused by significant rain. There was no environmental damage resulting from the incident; however, rainwater diversion channels will need to be re-established to prevent further material subsidence in the pit.

 

While the main access throughout the pit was not affected, mining in the pit has been temporarily suspended. Pit access has been restricted to the necessary technical and operating personnel to support the appropriate geotechnical assessments required for safe remediation and resumption of mining activities. Crushing and stacking of stockpiled material onto the heap leach will continue in the interim. The Company is currently assessing any potential impact of the pit wall event on its full-year production guidance for Camino Rojo.

 

The relevant authorities are being notified as appropriate, and Orla is implementing appropriate remediation measures. The safety of all personnel remains the Company’s top priority as it undertakes a comprehensive analysis to ensure the ongoing stability of mining operations. 

TwoCitiesCapital Grand Master

TwoCitiesCapital

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Viking said:

Orla Mining has reported an issue requiring the company to temporarily halt operations at its Camino Rojo mine. The stock is currently down 13.5%. This will be something to monitor.

 

https://orlamining.com/news/orla-mining-reports-pit-wall-event-at-camino-rojo/

 

 

Vancouver, BC – July 23, 2025 – Orla Mining Ltd. (TSX: OLA; NYSE: ORLA) (“Orla” or the “Company”) reports that an uncontrolled material movement event occurred today on the pit wall at its Camino Rojo Oxide Mine in Zacatecas, Mexico. 

 

The event occurred along the temporary north wall of the open pit, which included ore material expected to be mined as part of the ultimate open pit. There were no injuries or equipment damage as a result of the material movement, which was detected early by the pit monitoring systems. The event was caused by significant rain. There was no environmental damage resulting from the incident; however, rainwater diversion channels will need to be re-established to prevent further material subsidence in the pit.

 

While the main access throughout the pit was not affected, mining in the pit has been temporarily suspended. Pit access has been restricted to the necessary technical and operating personnel to support the appropriate geotechnical assessments required for safe remediation and resumption of mining activities. Crushing and stacking of stockpiled material onto the heap leach will continue in the interim. The Company is currently assessing any potential impact of the pit wall event on its full-year production guidance for Camino Rojo.

 

The relevant authorities are being notified as appropriate, and Orla is implementing appropriate remediation measures. The safety of all personnel remains the Company’s top priority as it undertakes a comprehensive analysis to ensure the ongoing stability of mining operations. 

 

Any idea how long it takes to dig channels?  Seems like an over reaction to something I'm guessing is a few weeks? 

Hoodlum Experienced

Hoodlum

Posted
Posted (edited)

I came across this interview of Caroline Shin, Vacatia CEO.  It provides some insight into what they see as the benefits of being a private vs a public company.  It also discusses some of the integrations occurring with Berkley group.
 

It could be a while before we see how this plays out due to the more complex nature of this equity and debt structured deal.  We will receive our first insight with the 2025 full year results. 
 

https://resorttrades.com/vacatias-bold-move-a-new-era-for-independent-resorts/amp/

Edited by Hoodlum
Hoodlum Experienced

Hoodlum

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

@SafetyinNumbers 

 

You are correct on the Fairfax ownership level in Waterous Energy Fund 3.  I was curious and looked it up

 

image.thumb.png.31f98e63f9e14c26b093d29f3c496f9b.png


so just over a $1B investment by Fairfax.  It will be interesting to see how this is invested. 

SafetyinNumbers Veteran

SafetyinNumbers

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:


so just over a $1B investment by Fairfax.  It will be interesting to see how this is invested. 


It’s mostly covered between GFR and the subscription receipts for the SCR/MEG proposal as it stands.

Xerxes Grand Master

Xerxes

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, gfp said:

Are you Anthony Xerxes?


lol not even close. 

I am same age as you. (I think; if I remember the “what is your age thread” correctly). 
 

ps: I should have probably worded differently. I see now that it sounds like I am the podcast host. 

Edited by Xerxes
Hoodlum Experienced

Hoodlum

Posted
Posted (edited)

Metlen has completed the requirements to list on the LSE.  Metlen is expected to start trading on the LSE this coming Monday.

 

https://www.metlengroup.com/news/press-releases/tender-offer-results-announcement/

 

 

ACCEPTANCE PREREQUISITE
 

During the Acceptance Period, which ended on 25 July 2025, 129,024,224 Metlen S.A. Shares corresponding to approximately 90.16% of the share capital and voting rights of Metlen S.A. were lawfully and validly tendered, including the 30,899,783 Metlen S.A. Shares which are directly held by Mr. Evangelos Mytilineos and his controlled companies, Frezia Ltd, Kilteo Ltd and Melvet Investments Ltd.

 

As a result, the prerequisite that Metlen S.A. Shares representing at least 90% of the share capital and voting rights of Metlen S.A. be lawfully and validly tendered and not withdrawn, has been satisfied.

 

 

 

ADMISSION CONDITION

 

On 25 July 2025 and on 28 July 2025, the FCA and the LSE acknowledged respectively, that the application for admission of the Consideration Shares to the equity shares (commercial companies) segment of the Official List and to trading on the LSE's main market for listed securities has been approved. This approval is subject to, among other things, receipt of a shareholder statement evidencing satisfaction of the applicable minimum free float requirement (10 per cent., which was met as of the end of the Acceptance Period) will be met at Admission and issuance of the Consideration Shares to be issued in the Tender Offer.

 

As a result, the Admission Condition has been satisfied.

 

Edited by Hoodlum
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nwoodman Mentor

nwoodman

Posted
Posted (edited)

Background article on Sleep Country’s advertising ramp with Eugene Levy as brand ambassador.

 

https://mediaincanada.com/2025/07/08/sleep-country-largest-media-buy-in-30-years/

 

“It really took off, especially on YouTube and connected TV, with consumers resonating strongly with the messaging. We saw significant lift – nearly 20% in the first couple of weeks – and those learnings helped us further refine our messaging for Sleep Daddy,” Bamberg says. “This gave us confidence that levity can spark serious conversations about sleep health, driving awareness and consideration in a way that resonates with consumers.”


The new campaign is based on a Sleep Country and Leger study of 1,619 Canadian adults conducted last month, which revealed that 69% of respondents desire a better night’s sleep. The poll also indicated that 26% of participants reported obtaining the necessary seven to eight hours of sleep, while 65% slept for six hours or less.

 

The Publicis pitch:

https://www.publicis.ca/work/sleep-daddy-reignites-canadas-relationship-with-sleep

Edited by nwoodman
nwoodman Mentor

nwoodman

Posted
Posted (edited)

Eurobank reported Q2.

 

https://www.eurobankholdings.gr/-/media/holding/omilos/grafeio-tupou/etairikes-anakoinoseis/2025/2q2025/2q-2025-results-presentation.pdf

 A quick round up:
The Good

  • TBV/share €2.38 (+7.6% YTD, post-dividend)
  • SEE diversification paying off: 53% of adjusted net profit now from international ops (€374m), with Cyprus +42% YoY and Bulgaria +10.6%
  • Fee income acceleration: Commission income surged 28.9% YoY to €364m, driven by wealth management and CNP Insurance acquisition
  • Credit quality momentum: NPE ratio improved to 2.8%, coverage at 92.8%, net NPEs down to just €0.1bn
  • Strong capital position: CET1 15.5%, CAD 19.8%, MREL buffer of 290bps above target
  • Organic loan growth: €2.2bn in 1H25, with strong pipeline across all markets
  • Shareholder returns: 2025 interim dividend of €170m (~4.7 cent/share) declared, following 2024 DPS of 10.6 cent/share
  • Bargain acquisition: €38m negative goodwill from CNP Cyprus deal - got assets for less than fair value (but one off, so kind of bad in terms of masking earnings)

The Bad

  • Profitability decline: Adjusted net profit down 2.9% YoY to €711m; EPS fell to €0.19 vs €0.20
  • NIM compression accelerating: Down 32bps YoY to 2.51% as deposit repricing outpaces loan adjustments
  • Cost inflation biting: OpEx up 34.3% YoY (6% like-for-like); cost/income ratio deteriorated to 37%
  • Margin defense struggling: Deposit betas remain elevated while loan repricing lags ECB cuts

Things that make you go hmmm

  • Cyprus profit pressure: Core PPI down 19.5% YoY despite strong market position - rate sensitivity higher than expected
  • Operating leverage reversing: Revenue growth (+13.8%) not keeping pace with cost growth (+34.3%)

Bottom line: Still a well-capitalised, geographically balanced bank with strong recurring earnings, but the operating leverage is heading the wrong way for now. Management execution in 2H25 (on cost control and margin defence) will be key.

Edited by nwoodman
Viking Grand Master

Viking

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

The Keg Royalties Income Fund unit holders voted 99% in favour of Fairfax’s acquisition.  In the Q2 report Fairfax mentioned that this would close in Q3 if approved. 

 

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/08/01/3126151/0/en/The-Keg-Royalties-Income-Fund-Obtains-Unitholder-Approval-for-the-Transaction-with-Fairfax.html


@Hoodlum, thanks for posting these updates. It is much appreciated.

 

This will put a bow tie on a busy years for Recipe and Fairfax:

  1. Takeout of minority partner’s 16% stake - securing 100% of Recipe for Fairfax.
  2. Takeout of KRIF - securing 100% of the Keg banner for Recipe.
  3. Purchase of rights/restaurants of Olive Garden Canada. 

This does a couple of things for Recipe. 

  1. Simplifies Recipe’s ownership structure. Gives Fairfax 100% control.
  2. Gives Recipe 100% control over all of its restaurant banners.
  3. Provides Recipe with some growth opportunities, like expanding Olive Garden in Canada (there are only 8 locations, all in Western Canada) and perhaps The Keg in the US. 
  4. The Keg (KRIF) will provide a nice pickup in earnings for Recipe.
  5. Recipe will provide a nice pickup in earnings for Fairfax (16% will no longer be going to the minority partner).

This also likely gives Fairfax the option to IPO Recipe (all or part) at some point down the road. I really like that flexibility this gives Fairfax with this asset moving forward.
—————

Regarding KRIF, here is what the press release said for timing: “Subject to the satisfaction or waiver of all conditions to the Transaction, the Transaction is expected to be completed on or about August 13, 2025.”

Hoodlum Experienced

Hoodlum

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Viking said:


@Hoodlum, thanks for posting these updates. It is much appreciated.

 

This will put a bow tie on a busy years for Recipe and Fairfax:

  1. Takeout of minority partner’s 16% stake - securing 100% of Recipe for Fairfax.
  2. Takeout of KRIF - securing 100% of the Keg banner for Recipe.
  3. Purchase of rights/restaurants of Olive Garden Canada. 

This does a couple of things for Recipe. 

  1. Simplifies Recipe’s ownership structure. Gives Fairfax 100% control.
  2. Gives Recipe 100% control over all of its restaurant banners.
  3. Provides Recipe with some growth opportunities, like expanding Olive Garden in Canada (there are only 8 locations, all in Western Canada) and perhaps The Keg in the US. 
  4. The Keg (KRIF) will provide a nice pickup in earnings for Recipe.
  5. Recipe will provide a nice pickup in earnings for Fairfax (16% will no longer be going to the minority partner).

This also likely gives Fairfax the option to IPO Recipe (all or part) at some point down the road. I really like that flexibility this gives Fairfax with this asset moving forward.
—————

Regarding KRIF, here is what the press release said for timing: “Subject to the satisfaction or waiver of all conditions to the Transaction, the Transaction is expected to be completed on or about August 13, 2025.”


@Viking. I really like the simplified structure of Recipe now.  I suspect they have plan for growth with the Keg.  Recipe has also committed to open 30 additional Olive Garden restaurants over the next 10 years. 
 

https://www.nrn.com/casual-dining/darden-seeks-to-spin-off-28-unit-bahama-breeze


Cardenas said Darden also “signed a definitive agreement to sell the eight Olive Garden locations in Canada to Recipe Unlimited, the largest full-service operator in Canada, and we are on track to close that deal soon.”

 

Recipe Unlimited has agreed to open 30 more Olive Garden units over the next 10 years, he said.

 

 

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