Fairfax stock positions

[nwoodman]

A swag of announcements on Metlen's LSE listing.  A short  MS note attached

 

https://www.metlengroup.com/share-exchange/news-announcemets/

METLEN_20250626_1216.pdf

[SafetyinNumbers]

16 minutes ago, nwoodman said:

A swag of announcements on Metlen's LSE listing.  A short  MS note attached

 

https://www.metlengroup.com/share-exchange/news-announcemets/

METLEN_20250626_1216.pdf 190.51 kB · 4 downloads

Thanks for sharing!

 

This looks like another attempt by a Fairfax company to take advantage of market structure. Metlen will attract a lot more passive buying listed in London. A big part of Strathcona’s bid for MEG is also to take advantage of market structure as none of SCR’s float is in any benchmarks. 

[Hoodlum]

Another interview with Murad Al-Katib of AGT Foods. 

 

What I found interesting was his comment at 20 min where he mentioned that AGT is doing relatively well during this time of significant economic strife, due to only 27% of AGT Foods sales coming from the US, China and India combined.  I would have expected the combined sales to these 3 regions to represent a larger percentage of their sales.  They are certainly well diversified globally and should be able to withstand any geo-political shocks that other companies will go through. 
 

 

Edited June 28, 2025 by Hoodlum

[nwoodman]

1 minute ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Thanks for sharing!

 

This looks like another attempt by a Fairfax company to take advantage of market structure. Metlen will attract a lot more passive buying listed in London. A big part of Strathcona’s bid for MEG is also to take advantage of market structure as none of SCR’s float is in any benchmarks. 

I was revisiting the numbers, and it still looks quite interesting.   I tried to buy it a while back, but was told the Greek bourse was off-limits.  It's still relatively inexpensive, so I may give it another try.  Its a great story with a long runway. Either way, you win via Fairfax. 

 

"It is expected that Admission will become effective and that unconditional dealings will commence at

8:00 a.m. (UK time) on 4 August 2025."

 

Prospectus attached

metlen_energy_metals_plc_prospectus.pdf the_articles_of_association.pdf

[Hoodlum]

45 minutes ago, nwoodman said:

A swag of announcements on Metlen's LSE listing.  A short  MS note attached

 

https://www.metlengroup.com/share-exchange/news-announcemets/

METLEN_20250626_1216.pdf 190.51 kB · 4 downloads

Thanks for posting this.  After accounting for the additional shares from the convertible debt that was provided to Metlen in March, Fairfax would own 8.35% of Metlen.  This is now a $680M investment for Fairfax, quickly approaching $1B.  

[nwoodman]

2 hours ago, Hoodlum said:

Thanks for posting this.  After accounting for the additional shares from the convertible debt that was provided to Metlen in March, Fairfax would own 8.35% of Metlen.  This is now a $680M investment for Fairfax, quickly approaching $1B.  

Yep, it’s a decent chunk upon conversion. I like the sound of another holding reaching the billion dollar club.

 

A recent interview with Evangelos, starts at the 21 min mark and covered here (Note: I had to VPN to watch the video)

 

 

[Hoodlum]

Natalia Strafti has stepped down as CEO of Grivali Hospitality after 18 months in her new role. She was also deputy CEO since 2021.  Natalia started at Eurobank in 2000, moving to Grivalia 10 years ago. She will be a big loss for Grivali and I wonder where they will look for their new CEO.  
 

https://money-tourism.gr/en/natalia-strafti-leaves-as-ceo-of-grivalia-hospitality/

Edited June 28, 2025 by Hoodlum

[Viking]

The Greek Freak (Eurobank) is making a strong push to be MVP of Fairfax's equity holdings in 2025. The market value of Eurobank is up $908m in Q2 (currency is a tailwind). Since inception, the total return from this investment is now about $3.34b. It is nuts what this investment has delivered for Fairfax over the past 5 years. And at Euro 2.916 the stock still look like good value (i.e. it does not look overpriced). 

 

Excess of FV over MV is about $1.6b (my estimate for June 30, 2025), or about $74/share pre-tax. This is economic value that is being created at Fairfax that is not being  captured in accounting value (EPS and book value). 

 

Edited June 30, 2025 by Viking

[petec]

43 minutes ago, Viking said:

The market value of Eurobank is up $908m in Q2

 

This is just an astonishing statistic. The value of patience!

[nwoodman]

2 hours ago, Viking said:

Excess of FV over MV is about $1.6b (my estimate for June 30, 2025), or about $74/share pre-tax. This is economic value that is being created at Fairfax that is not being  captured in accounting value (EPS and book value). 

 

A great reminder that the “B” in P/B for Fairfax often doesn’t reflect economic reality.  This will likely be a $5bn position for Fairfax before we even have to question whether it is fairly valued i.e it’s a 75c dollar today and growing. That FX kicker may well prove material in time too.

Edited July 1, 2025 by nwoodman

[Viking]

Estimate of change in MV of Fairfax’s equity portfolio in Q2, 2025

 

In Q2-2025, Fairfax’s equity portfolio (the holdings that I track) increased in market value by about $2.0 billion (pre-tax), or 8.5%. In Q1-2025, the increase in market value was about $785 million (pre-tax), or 3.5%. The market value of Fairfax’s equity holdings has increased substantially over the first 6 months of 2025. 

 

The equity portfolio had a total value of about $25.1 billion at June 30, 2025. 

 

Included in our estimates are details from Fairfax’s Q1-2025 interim earnings report and 13F. 

 

 

Notes: 

• The FFH-TRS position is included in the mark to market bucket and at its notional value (this position has a market value of $3.2 billion). Convertible bonds, warrants and debentures are also included in the mark to market bucket.
• Digit: My tracker does not include Digit, Fairfax’s publicly traded P/C insurance company in India. Part of Fairfax’s ownership position in Digit is market to market. Digit’s shares were up quite a bit in Q2. This should result in a nice sized unrealized gain for Fairfax in Q2.
• Currency: US$ weakness is another tailwind for Fairfax. Where the benefit shows up in reported results is a little complicated (net income or OCI). 

The ‘tracker portfolio’ is not an exact match to Fairfax’s actual holdings. It is useful only as a tool to understand the rough change in value of Fairfax’s equity portfolio (and not the precise change).

 

Split of holdings by accounting treatment

 

About 49% of Fairfax’s equity holdings are mark to market - and will fluctuate each quarter with changes in equity markets. The other 51% are Associates and Consolidated holdings. 

 

 

Split of total gains by accounting treatment

• The total change is an increase of about $2.0 billion = $91/share (pre-tax)
• The mark to market change is an increase of about $784 million = $36.35/share. 

 

 

What were the big movers in the equity portfolio in Q2, 2025?

 

The usual suspects – Eurobank and FFH-TRS - continue to perform very well (yes, this is an understatement). Lots of other holdings had strong quarters: Metlen, Thomas Cook India, Fairfax India and Orla. The biggest laggard was Occidental. 

 

 

Excess of fair value over carrying value

 

For associate and consolidated holdings, the excess of fair value to carrying value is about $2.7 billion or $126/share (pre-tax). The 'excess of FV to CV’ has been materially increasing in recent years. This is economic value that has been created by Fairfax that is not captured in accounting value (earnings or book value) – it is one good example of how book value is understated at Fairfax. (Note, the carrying value we use in our tracker for associate and consolidated holdings is from March 31, 2025 so our number will likely be a little high).

 

Excess of FV over CV = $2.7 billion = $126/share (pre-tax)

• Associates        = $1.9 billion
• Consolidated    = $0.8 billion

----------

 

This spreadsheet contains errors. It also contains some information that is dated (like the carrying value for associate and consolidated holdings). Please keep this in mind. The spreadsheet is updated as new information becomes available.

 

 

 

Fairfax June 30 2025.xlsx

Edited July 1, 2025 by Viking

[awagner85]

21 hours ago, Viking said:

The Greek Freak (Eurobank) is making a strong push to be MVP of Fairfax's equity holdings in 2025. The market value of Eurobank is up $908m in Q2 (currency is a tailwind). Since inception, the total return from this investment is now about $3.34b. It is nuts what this investment has delivered for Fairfax over the past 5 years. And at Euro 2.916 the stock still look like good value (i.e. it does not look overpriced). 

 

Excess of FV over MV is about $1.6b (my estimate for June 30, 2025), or about $74/share pre-tax. This is economic value that is being created at Fairfax that is not being  captured in accounting value (EPS and book value). 

 

https://www.eurobankholdings.gr/en/grafeio-tupou/etairiki-anakoinosi-07-02-2025

 

I'm a bit confused on the actual Eurobank shares FFH owns. The link above cites them owning 1,209 after selling 80 million shares in January. This would put FFH closer to 1,289 shares owned before versus the 1,266 shares cited in the FFH annual report. Any insight or what am I missing?

[Viking]

21 minutes ago, awagner85 said:

https://www.eurobankholdings.gr/en/grafeio-tupou/etairiki-anakoinosi-07-02-2025

 

I'm a bit confused on the actual Eurobank shares FFH owns. The link above cites them owning 1,209 after selling 80 million shares in January. This would put FFH closer to 1,289 shares owned before versus the 1,266 shares cited in the FFH annual report. Any insight or what am I missing?

@awagner85, sorry, I don’t have an answer for you. For the number I use in my spreadsheet I took the number Fairfax published in the 2024AR and subtracted 80 million. With Eurobank now buying back shares (and Fairfax selling on a pro-rated basis) it is going to get even more difficult to have an exact number. 
 

But not having an exact number doesn’t bother me. I know I am going to be off with lots of my share count numbers for different holdings. Over time, we will get updates - when we do, I do my best to update my numbers then. With my spreadsheet, my goal is to be roughly right - that is good enough for me. 

Edited July 1, 2025 by Viking

[dartmonkey]

Eurobank is on quite the tear. Not only is its share price up from $2.23 to 2.97 since the beginning of 2025, the EUR:USD exchange rate has kicked in another 10%, up from 1.04 to 1.18. Not to mention the Euro 10c dividend. Combining the 3 effects, Fairfax's biggest share investment (equity accounting) is up 56%, at least for the roughly 33% stake they have held on to. They had to sell 80m shares in January, to keep their stake under 33% as required regulators in Greece and Bulgaria, subsequent to which they owned 1209m shares, or 32.89%.

 

Since then, Eurobank has announced its intention to repurchase up to 10% of its shares, and mentioned in May that it had been informed by Fairfax of Fairfax's intention to 'participate' in this share buyback programme, whatever that is supposed to mean. It may mean that they have sold some of their shares to Eurobank, to keep under the 33% limit. Obviously, to keep the same percentage stake, this would mean that Fairfax would need to sell up to 10% of its shares (about 121m), so the current number of shares owned may be less than 1209m. Indeed, as of Mar 31st, Fairfax said in their Q2 report that the fair value of its stake was $3160.6m, suggesting that they owned 1183.6 shares at that point, i.e. that they had sold about 25m more shares since the January sale. And the number may well have changed (i.e. decreased further) since then.

[dartmonkey]

22 hours ago, Viking said:

@awagner85, sorry, I don’t have an answer for you. For the number I use in my spreadsheet I took the number Fairfax published in the 2024AR and subtracted 80 million. With Eurobank now buying back shares (and Fairfax selling on a pro-rated basis) it is going to get even more difficult to have an exact number. 
 

But not having an exact number doesn’t bother me. I know I am going to be off with lots of my share count numbers for different holdings. Over time, we will get updates - when we do, I do my best to update my numbers then. With my spreadsheet, my goal is to be roughly right - that is good enough for me. 

Viking's used 1186m as the share count number, which would indeed be 1266m (from the AR) minus 80m from the January sale. It is hard to understand why Eurobank would have said in February that Fairfax owned 1209.2m shares after that sale, especially since we can calculate that by March 31st, Fairfax was down to 1183.6m shares. Bottom line is, we don't really know exactly how many shares they have, but it is probably less than 1183.6m now. For instance, we know that Eurobank repurchased 3.8m shares in June, suggesting that Fairfax must have sold another 1.3m or so. So a good guess is that we are at about 1182m shares now. We will get more news when Fairfax reports on Q2 in about a month. If Eurobank then also reports a higher number, perhaps we can infer that they are counting differently - for instance, maybe Eurobank is counting shares controlled by Watsa but not by Fairfax? Who knows.

[gfp]

EUROB has been repurchasing its own shares daily.  Fairfax owned 32.26% of EUROB on 3/31 and will participate in the EUROB repurchase (sell shares directly to EUROB) in order to keep their ownership "close to, but below" 33%

 

"in order to maintain its total equity stake in Eurobank Holdings close to, but below, the regulatory threshold of 33% of Eurobank Holdings’ voting rights."

[Santayana]

For my purposes, I'm comfortable knowing they hold "a lot".   Should be a very nice earnings report next month.

[SafetyinNumbers]

3 hours ago, Santayana said:

For my purposes, I'm comfortable knowing they hold "a lot".   Should be a very nice earnings report next month.

The increase in the Eurobank share price won’t help the earnings to be clear but FV over CV should increase a lot which in theory should help with multiple expansion.

[Santayana]

1 hour ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

The increase in the Eurobank share price won’t help the earnings to be clear but FV over CV should increase a lot which in theory should help with multiple expansion.

Right, I wasn't considering that they're not marked to market.  I still think we're going to some very nice earnings for a host of other reasons which @Viking has so nicely mentioned above.

 

[nwoodman]

it’s only a number, but worth a post
 

[Redskin212]

Great article in Bloomberg on Greece's turnaround that prominently features Prem

 

Greece's Economy Rewards Believers in Turnaround From 2015 - Bloomberg

[nwoodman]

1 hour ago, Redskin212 said:

Great article in Bloomberg on Greece's turnaround that prominently features Prem

 

Greece's Economy Rewards Believers in Turnaround From 2015 - Bloomberg

Thanks, an amazing story for Greece and Fairfax.  Though not without some heartache and pain considering the relatively easy win with BoI.

 

I loved this anecdote:

 

Alexis Tsipras, the leader of the Coalition of the Radical Left, or Syriza, won power in 2015 with a promise to tear up the bailout agreement. After months of impasse with Greece’s fellow euro members, he called the referendum on whether to stick with the

terms. Watsa met him and asked him straight.

 

“I said to him, ‘you know, if you want us to leave, we’ll leave, that’s fine,’ and he said, ‘No, I want you to stay, you’re exactly the kind of investor Greece needs’,” Watsa recalled.

Edited July 4, 2025 by nwoodman

[Hoodlum]

Fairfax exercised their rights under the Metlen bonds issued on 03/28, that had an exercise price of €40/share.  Metlen's closing price today was €56, so a nice gain in just 90 days (even greater in US$).  Fairfax now owns 8.34% of Metlen's outstanding shares.   

 

Fairfax was likely required to convert to shares now, in advance of the LSE inclusion.  

 

https://www.metlengroup.com/news/ase-announcements/insiders-announcements/announcement-of-regulated-information-04-07-2025/

 

[nwoodman]

6 hours ago, Hoodlum said:

Fairfax exercised their rights under the Metlen bonds issued on 03/28, that had an exercise price of €40/share.  Metlen's closing price today was €56, so a nice gain in just 90 days (even greater in US$).  Fairfax now owns 8.34% of Metlen's outstanding shares.   

 

Fairfax was likely required to convert to shares now, in advance of the LSE inclusion.  

 

https://www.metlengroup.com/news/ase-announcements/insiders-announcements/announcement-of-regulated-information-04-07-2025/

 

Thanks for this I must confess I find it a bit of a head scratcher.    There’s no regulatory or listing requirement that I can find that mandates conversion prior to admission. Logically, you’d expect them to retain optionality, collect interest, keep a senior claim, and convert when the equity rerates post-float. These came up as possible reasons after polling various AI sources, none of them overly convincing:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Does seem strange as the exchangeable were initiated in March 2025 and the LSE listing was well and truly on the cards then. I also can’t see a tax angle either.  So perhaps it’s a simple as optics.

 

BTW I think that closing price in your post may be a bit early but will be the case at some point

[Hoodlum]

8 minutes ago, nwoodman said:

 

BTW I think that closing price in your post may be a bit early but will be the case at some point

oops. I was looking at the wrong ticker.