Fairfax India new issue

[Saluki]

 

I came across this yesterday. It's only got 25 views, so I assume it hasn't been posted on here. 

 

Good summary of the holdings and valuation.

[73 Reds]

1 hour ago, Saluki said:

 

I came across this yesterday. It's only got 25 views, so I assume it hasn't been posted on here. 

 

Good summary of the holdings and valuation.

@Saluki Thanks for that.  Nice overview.  

[Saluki]

2 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

@Saluki Thanks for that.  Nice overview.  

 

You're welcome. I stumbled upon his Youtube channel because he was pitching another stock on MOI and I went to see if he had other ideas. He's got a few on there. 

 

I started buying FF India in 2018, so the return has been nothing to write home about, but the value of the underlying keeps getting better, so I try to think of it as part of my coffee can portfolio (along with BRK, JOE and CPNG).

 

IMHO, the management fee structure will continue to keep it trading at a discount unless they figure out a way to close that gap (buybacks might help). Although Prem has been more than fair with FF India in getting payment in a way that benefits FFI instead of the Fairfax mother ship, people are probably looking at others who use these structures to try to self-deal, like Ackman with the HHH management fee, and just pass rather than dig deeper. 

[backtothebeach]

Looks like there was a dedicated seller today:

[villainx]

Interesting, must be how I got my order filled.  Wait a couple of years before being thankful?

 

Edit:  oops, partially filled.

Edited October 10, 2025 by villainx

[giulio]

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-rbl-bank-climbs-reports-emirates-nbd-is-advanced-talks-stake-buy-2025-10-14/

What does this mean for the IDBI process? 

Seems like Emirates is close to buying a majority stake in another indian bank...

[Viking]

33 minutes ago, giulio said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-rbl-bank-climbs-reports-emirates-nbd-is-advanced-talks-stake-buy-2025-10-14/

What does this mean for the IDBI process? 

Seems like Emirates is close to buying a majority stake in another indian bank...

 

@giulio, thanks for posting. This continues to simmer away on the back burner... 

Edited October 15, 2025 by Viking

[villainx]

IDBI maneuvers is like experiment in game theory!

 

[Hoodlum]

On 10/15/2025 at 2:01 PM, giulio said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-rbl-bank-climbs-reports-emirates-nbd-is-advanced-talks-stake-buy-2025-10-14/

What does this mean for the IDBI process? 

Seems like Emirates is close to buying a majority stake in another indian bank...

 

It looks NBD has pulled out of the bidding for IDBI.   That would explain their decision to buy a stake in RBL

 

https://www.retailbankerinternational.com/news/emirates-nbd-to-quit-idbi-deal/

 

Emirates NBD has decided to quit the proposed acquisition of IDBI Bank and is expected to seek a majority stake in RBL Bank, reported The Hindu Businessline, citing sources. 
 

The Dubai-based financial institution offered $6bn to $7bn for a 61% stake in IDBI Bank in May this year, after talks with the Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM). 
 

However, Emirates NBD is shifting its focus to RBL Bank, due to delays in the completion of the IDBI bank deal, said the publication. 

 

Edited October 17, 2025 by Hoodlum

[hobbit]

On 10/17/2025 at 9:20 AM, Hoodlum said:

 

It looks NBD has pulled out of the bidding for IDBI.   That would explain their decision to buy a stake in RBL

 

https://www.retailbankerinternational.com/news/emirates-nbd-to-quit-idbi-deal/

 

Emirates NBD has decided to quit the proposed acquisition of IDBI Bank and is expected to seek a majority stake in RBL Bank, reported The Hindu Businessline, citing sources. 
 

The Dubai-based financial institution offered $6bn to $7bn for a 61% stake in IDBI Bank in May this year, after talks with the Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM). 
 

However, Emirates NBD is shifting its focus to RBL Bank, due to delays in the completion of the IDBI bank deal, said the publication. 

 

Does this leave Fairfax India as the only legitimate bidder? IDBI seems to be a little too big for Kotak

[villainx]

Upthread someone asked is IDBI a good investment too. Especially at whatever the price it’ll end up being. 

[gfp]

The NBD news certainly increases Fairfax India's chances of "winning."  I can imagine a deal structure that is creative and works but who knows how it works out.  I assume if Fairfax India wins IDBI they will move quickly to merge CSB into IDBI with IDBI the surviving "brand."  You can bet Fairfax parent and the usual suspects of fair and friendly preferred partners will have to help out

[Viking]

2 hours ago, gfp said:

The NBD news certainly increases Fairfax India's chances of "winning."  I can imagine a deal structure that is creative and works but who knows how it works out.  I assume if Fairfax India wins IDBI they will move quickly to merge CSB into IDBI with IDBI the surviving "brand."  You can bet Fairfax parent and the usual suspects of fair and friendly preferred partners will have to help out

If Fairfax India is successful in buying IDBI, yes, it will be interesting to see the details.

• Amount paid
• Valuation
• How it is paid for (where the cash comes from):
  • Fairfax India/Fairfax/External partners
• Restrictions/demands from government
• Creativity used in how the deal is structured
• Impact on CSB

It will also be interesting to see how investors react to the news/details. The reaction from investors will likely be focussed on the short term (price paid versus value received). It wouldn’t surprise me to see a lot of negativity. But we will see (perhaps I am living too much in the past).

Edited October 21, 2025 by Viking

[hobbit]

2 hours ago, Viking said:

If Fairfax India is successful in buying IDBI, yes, it will be interesting to see the details.

• Amount paid
• Valuation
• How it is paid for (where the cash comes from):
  • Fairfax India/Fairfax/External partners
• Restrictions/demands from government
• Creativity used in how the deal is structured
• Impact on CSB

It will also be interesting to see how investors react to the news/details. The reaction from investors will likely be focussed on the short term (price paid versus value received). It wouldn’t surprise me to see a lot of negativity. But we will see (perhaps I am living too much in the past).

if the proposed structure generates some sort of investment fee stream for fairfax india which offsets the fees being paid to FFH, i would assume that it would certainly be positive for FIH.

 

Can they also just sell CSB if they get a decent premium to generate cash for the deal and not having to worry about integrating two banks which are on different tech stacks.

[nwoodman]

10 hours ago, hobbit said:

Does this leave Fairfax India as the only legitimate bidder? IDBI seems to be a little too big for Kotak

I believe Oaktree/Brookfield are still in the running.  Reputation will likely feature prominently  in considerations.  Fairfax via CSB and that whole patient capital thing may have an edge.  If it comes to pass, then it will still be a decent chunk of capital but the fact that this has been on a go slow, probably suits Fairfax at the moment.  
 

Price is everything but there is an elegance in having a really big idea waiting at the end of a hard market that could potentially move the needle over the next decade. That’s the sort of Fairfax optionality that is not lost on this forum but the market still doesn’t get.

Edited October 21, 2025 by nwoodman

[Hoodlum]

The IDBI bank sale could get delayed.

 

https://www.ndtvprofit.com/markets/rbl-bank-emirates-nbd-deal-may-delay-idbi-stake-sale-ndtv-profit-exclusive

 

Sources told NDTV Profit that the process requires at least two serious, competing bids to move forward effectively. Both Emirates NBD and Fairfax were previously seen as the primary suitors for IDBI Bank and had even conducted the due diligence process.

But with Emirates NBD now focusing on its announced $3 billion infusion for a majority stake in RBL Bank, Fairfax is left as the main competitive suitor.

 

Other firms are in the fray, but they are few and far between. The likes of Oaktree Capital and Kotak Mahindra Bank have emerged as potential alternatives, but they have only shown 'sluggish interest' so far.

 

This lack of a strong second bidder may serve as a real blow to the IDBI sale, casting doubt on DIPAM's goal to complete the privatisation within the 2026 fiscal year

 

Edited October 23, 2025 by Hoodlum

[Castanza]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/chit-chat-stocks/id1437766060?i=1000732945433

 

New podcast that focuses on Fairfax India 

Edited October 23, 2025 by Castanza

[netcash1]

Looks like we are about to find out what city is getting a new airport 150KM from BIAL.  Will Fairfax participate and have a seat at the table?

 

This announcement possibly could shine a spotlight on the inherent, intrinsic value of BIAL.  

[hobbit]

48 million + passengers likely this year for BIAL out of which 7 million will be international passengers

this is impressive growth. With these numbers, 6B for airport seems like a base case in an IPO.

https://www.businesstoday.in/magazine/deep-dive/story/can-bengaluru-international-airport-overtake-mumbai-and-delhi-499611-2025-10-27

Edited October 27, 2025 by hobbit

[sholland]

1 hour ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Not going to happen with Fairfax India. Private Indian companies won’t get the same capital treatment as a TSX listed company. 

Quote from a different topic predicting FIH will be bought out like KW, but thought I should follow up here.  I would love to own some Fairfax India, but have passed because of the high ownership by Fairfax Financial, and I am worried about a takeunder.  Please elaborate why Fairfax Financial wouldn’t take advantage of a market downdraft and execute an takeunder with Fairfax India.

[SafetyinNumbers]

2 hours ago, sholland said:

Quote from a different topic predicting FIH will be bought out like KW, but thought I should follow up here.  I would love to own some Fairfax India, but have passed because of the high ownership by Fairfax Financial, and I am worried about a takeunder.  Please elaborate why Fairfax Financial wouldn’t take advantage of a market downdraft and execute an takeunder with Fairfax India.

The capital treatment for the insurance subsidiaries is the reason. You should ask the question on the conference call Friday. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

You can assume it's a risk, but probably a remote one. 

 

Fairfax believed it was worthwhile to collect public capital for investment in India. Fairfax probably also saw value in the revenue stream. I don't see why any of that has changed - particularly with the sizes of deals they're discussing now with things like IDBI bank.

 

Probably best and easiest to have some combination of temporary private and permanent public partnership and Fairfax India gives them that public part. 

 

People had all sorts of excuses for why it deserved a premium at IPO. Now there are all sorts of excuses for the discount and why it should be private. Ultimately, I think it's just sentiment and that it'll eventually have a premium again - maybe after the BIAL Ipo

[Viking]

11 hours ago, sholland said:

Quote from a different topic predicting FIH will be bought out like KW, but thought I should follow up here.  I would love to own some Fairfax India, but have passed because of the high ownership by Fairfax Financial, and I am worried about a takeunder.  Please elaborate why Fairfax Financial wouldn’t take advantage of a market downdraft and execute an takeunder with Fairfax India.

@sholland, the short answer, IMHO, is if Fairfax wanted to take Fairfax India out at a low price they likely would have done it by now. It traded in the $12 to $13 range for a couple of years. Each year at the AGM a few questions are asked regarding Fairfax India. My read (today) is Fairfax is committed to keeping the current structure. 

[This2ShallPass]

13 hours ago, sholland said:

Quote from a different topic predicting FIH will be bought out like KW, but thought I should follow up here.  I would love to own some Fairfax India, but have passed because of the high ownership by Fairfax Financial, and I am worried about a takeunder.  Please elaborate why Fairfax Financial wouldn’t take advantage of a market downdraft and execute an takeunder with Fairfax India.

It's a risk you have to factor into your buy decision. Others have pointed out reasons why Fairfax won't do it. One reason why they can do it now, they will have lot of cash coming in the next few years and the discount persists.

I thought about my FFI position quite a bit and decided to trim it back to 5% (30% reduction). I'm going to let it ride from here on out as the potential upside from BIAL is still very high.
 

[This2ShallPass]

1 hour ago, Haryana said:

https://www.fairfaxindia.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/FIH-2025-Q3-Interim-Report-Final.pdf 

FIH-2025-Q3-Interim-Report-Final.pdf 511.41 kB · 14 downloads

BIAL valuation up 8.5% this Q and 23% YTD! I think this level of increase will continue for the next few years.

 

Currency impact was huge. I haven't given it much thought before but might need to model the impact going forward (this quarter 40% of BIAL gains were wiped out by currency).