Gregmal

That is awesome. Congrats.

LOL now big tech getting a bid. Every million people trying to be market timers and who does it best? the guy who sold Enphase yesterday!

PEP starting to show how sinister that inflation is on the bottom line. They call it “organic growth” these days.

Shit, for a moment I thought @dealrakerfinally saw the light and decided to take advantage of the life changing yields on Tbills!

Rates haven't fallen all that much though. 30 year fixed is still mid 6s.

bbbbbut I dont know how a non traded REIT works and thought they were going bankrupt bc of BREIT redemptions!

Thanks. There are definitely parallels and many things I learned via sports earlier in life have helped me with investing. Discipline, pattern recognition reading the plays, taking high risk/high reward shots. Throwing one in the dirt on 0-2, etc.

Yea the premiums are surprisingly large on both sides, especially given where the VIX is and has been. Between this trade and selling HHC puts at 75 and lower theres just been a ton of juice which adds up. I havent been doing anything heroic, just running the post covid CLF trade where you short near duration puts and buy longer duration calls to varying degrees and variations. Just sucks NVR doesn't have options LOL. Couldn't have done it without all the housing experts. Any of them have tip jars?

Have any of the experts that promised us massive write downs and impairments told us when exactly this is happening? Did they update their spreadsheets? These things continue to print money. Brrrrr

I dunno Spek. Did you see their "Who we are" slide? You and I have made mistakes in our investing lifetimes, but these guys? Busting out all the right moves at just the right times. Track record of many, many successes and zero failures, plotted elegantly over many, many years. They must be very rich. You sure you wanna take the other side of the trade?

Man, every Tom, Dick and Harry now knows how to play the game. Just proclaim that the Fed won't have any credibility unless they do what we want them to. Dont mind our positioning LOL "Until the Fed corrects its errors with respect to the country’s fifth largest bank, it cannot be credible as a banking regulator"

Yea successful investors certainly do not look at their investments and think of things within the framework of "cashing out" LOL. Thats like literally a degenerate gambler mentality. Successful investors simply "accumulate".

We ve got a motivated seller! Wonder if they’re willing to throw in a dozen homeless people you can’t evict from the lobby for good measure!

Bbbbut everyone is high on hopium!

Now imagine what it was when the stock was at $3000 and all the value bros were buying it?

End of the day, my house, my rules. My judgement…which is what I’ve lived and died by my entire life. To each their own. If people have a problem with how I live I’d simply ask them why they feel it’s their business? Reminds me of an incident maybe a decade ago. After I started my own business I had my own office and would always bring my dog to work. To get there obviously he sat in the car. One time I had to run a quick errand and I decided to run into Staples to grab some office supplies. Given it was 55 degrees outside and I’d be no more than 5 minutes in the store…I left my dog in the car. I come out and some whacko lady is on her phone screaming about how someone locked a dog in a car and she then starts yelling at me and I just look at her and calmly said “bitch, my dog probably eats better than your kids, although I’m skeptical you even have any kids if this is how you spend your time. Either way, don’t worry about him”. And I left. Why does everyone need to worry about everyone else’s business. Just be meticulous and robust about handling your own.

Yea I still see the MF demise argument hinging on assuming every brand new unit is gonna share the same fate as outliers like this where the properties are mediocre and the buyers total dumbasses. Separately, while I don’t own any yet…KRC is pretty damn interesting.

Yup. Like mentioned a bit back, the better life gets for people, the more it seems like folks need to come up with problems. In itself, a mental disorder. The school shooters and the transitioning teenagers with identity issues….very often happen to be….middle class white kids. You can see gangs are a derivative of poverty. Some of this other stuff, a derivative of things like boredom or levying high expectations on someone not able to handle it. Ever heard of the alcoholic housewife?

What is the infatuation with trans on both sides though? Like .5% of the population should be a paragraph in one textbook that is 1/12 of the K-12 curriculum. Why is this stuff so prevalent? Ideas are powerful. Introducing them, period, can influence. Otherwise, why the worry over who posts Ukraine or COVID crap on Twitter and Facebook? I personally don’t care what people do with themselves or their spare time. I think Republicans have a serious issue regarding…quoting Elon Musk, “being in peoples bedrooms”. That said, I don’t want weirdos around my children, period. I consider a person with a mental disorder, problematic and an undesirable in regards to being around my family, and I consider a man or a woman who thinks they are something else, to be just that. We were eating at a hole in the wall place that came highly recommended for its food about a year ago. A normal looking white dude was at the bar, yelling about Jesus. He was not belligerent but singing loudly and talking to anyone in the place. He came over to our table and told my 3 year old daughter she was beautiful, and my son that Jesus was the original gangsta. We told him to fuck off and he backed off and then came back again trying to high 5 us and we just left. When did life get so complicated for people? Everyone has rights. We can like whatever we like and do whatever we want to do but pushing this shit upon other people is fundamentally wrong.

Yea lol I don’t know why but the highlight of my year was seeing Powell make a total joke of himself and the FRB a month ago. The fact that they’re still talking about inflation too is just icing on the cake. There should be job cuts at the Fed.

The larger issue for many is the gaslighting and just overall redefining of things based on an agenda combined with the notion that those seeking acceptance refuse to accept anyone who believes differently than them, often to the extent that those same people try to harm or ruin folks who simply disagree with them. If trans people are a tiny fraction of a fraction in terms of society, why is this stuff being promoted as if that number is like 30%? Why not campaign and stuff school books with propaganda promoting the health and safety of the indigenous people of the Sentinel Islands? I have a few simple rules that I live by and one of the bigger ones is don’t make your problems my problems and vice versa. Today certain types are all about making their problems everyone else’s problems. Some stuff is just plain weird. Fat people are fat. Nothing wrong with calling spades a spade or saying one would or wouldn’t want certain things for themselves or their families. Except today, we are seeing society try to convince us that if someone is 300 pounds, they’re not fat, and you are the one with the problem if you think they are. Or if they’re 300 pounds, a male, and wearing a wig and dress, that you’re the problem if you think they’re a fat weirdo. Much of these issues are derivatives of mental issues. Which whether it’s dressing funny, eating too much, crime, etc….just aren’t being addressed properly and are arguably even being ignore.

I think the bigger issue is that when its virtually impossible to raise a family in a safe environment, with good education options, thats a problem for a city. How exactly does one raise a family in NYC or Chicago these days? Hey Johnny, wanna go to the park with the homeless people, druggies, and gangbangers? Ride your bike down the street? Go play ball at the courts where there was a shooting the other day? Public schools are out of the question and unless you have $30k-$60k a year or more, per kid for private, what do you do? Move to Westchester LOL. Ive mentioned the peculiar nature of the anti-safety movement, but Im equally perplexed at the hatred of charter schools or general improvement in educational options in the places as well. Theres just such a political web of conflicting bs and a stalemate, probably intentional, on doing anything. Its a shame and I thought Adams was a step in the right direction, but even still, its gonna take awhile.

Meanwhile, the Feds send in camo dressed, assault rifle wielding teams by the dozen to arrest some 21 year old computer nerd who’s reading a book on his porch….

Look at hvac direct and you’ll get an idea what the actual equipment cost is. I had a 1.5 ton go in a rental last year. Got a crazy quote. Told them I’d buy a Goodman and pay them $200 an hour labor on the install. They magically found an Armstrong Air they could install for $4500.

I honestly don’t know what to make of this datapoint. I’m with you on it, but we re still sitting at 3.5% with 2:1 ratio. I leaned the way you just described but it’s failed to produce meaningful and actionable anything. For all the job cuts we are hearing of, the numbers keep coming in strong. This Id use homebuilders as a good proxy. Prepared? Probably better than ever before. Ran through backlogs, managed inventory, and adjusted. We ve now had 18 months of warning and time to shore up balance sheets, raise cash, do whatever. Who’s oblivious to a possible recession. Or slowdown at this point? Answer is probably the average middle class person, and that’s it. Anyone with money I’m sure has had their financial guidance screamed at them since last winter. Companies have been doing the same, hence job cuts. I think the odds of a slowdown, especially some drama around the debt ceiling too have rocketed up, mainly because of politicians and Fed incompetence, but it’s still not worth betting on all that heavily IMO.