Gregmal

He's got a pretty easy job right now if he plays it right. He's got 12+ months of guaranteed CPI contraction and "I just hiked rates like no one in history" to fall back on, which any halfwit would probably be able to parlay into 12-18 months of just sitting tight and being "data dependent". Its almost a certainty now that CPI will be close to negative by August or so.

I think 25 or 0 will tell you more about Powell than anything material otherwise. 25 and done who cares. But from a practicality point of view, there’s no need for another one. By summer you’ll easily see sub 4 CPI and probably sub 2 real inflation. So to me, if we see 25 this time, all it tells me is that this guy is still easily manipulated and still a total slave to the “credibility” crowd, even if it means unnecessarily jeopardizing the rest of us.

See Jay fell for the rhetoric and those within his sphere who were pushing it. Why couldn’t he use some common sense? The ultimate tell of a dishonest take on the inflation is the “it’s their mandate” and “so what keep zirp forever” responses. It’s not all or nothing, especially at such as high level. Saying 5% inside 6 months or whatever is insane isn’t saying they should have stayed at 0%. Or saying 3-4% is fine isn’t violating this “mandate” as well. We keep hearing about these comparisons to the 70s…well guess what? If we applied some common sense and say, capped these hikes to 250-300 bps on a TTM basis, you know….so we could actually be data dependent and see the lagging effects…we d still be at a 10% FF within a few years and back at peak Volker levels many years sooner than it took back then. It’s just that the chumps like Summers, who I am certain is also getting paid by hedge funds for “advisory” work, told him he needed to go bananas to be credible and defeat inflation…yup, it’s as dumb as it sounds and was all along.

It’s spot on. I hate agreeing with her because of who she is, but it’s 100% accurate. This was both unnecessary, and farcically derived. If we are talking about putting company executives in jail for some of these total fuckups, we should talk about putting people like Powell there as well. You sit here contradicting yourself every time you speak…admit rate hikes have lagging effects, show total impatience with things that require patience, display total subservience to a certain ultra elite and influential crowd(like Larry Summers and Bill Ackman), and then almost blow up the same banking system you regulate after having told us it is healthier than ever, while putting normal people at risk of incredible hardship….and barely making a difference in this whole inflation fight thing, which was gonna work itself out with or without you. Fuckin clown.

I also think we ve seen enough that these imagined dollars of printing that simply stay within the banking system haven’t created an ounce of inflation. It’s the ones they send to average folks. Guaranteeing people simply have access to money they put in a savings account really won’t do anything be ease much of this social media driven panic.

Did we just find a fix for the NYC/CA homeless problem? Get rid of the worthless finance people and overpaid tech bros and help fix these rotting cities. Besides, most of the smart ones already left.

Lol yup. If someone tells me they’re on twitter it’s an immediate -5 credibility points. It’s a worthless cesspool of attention seeking egomaniacs and people pretending to be experts so they can sell you shit.

Is there anything that isn’t these days?

Yea, I’m feeling pretty good about my investment in Cerebras Systems. Might buy me an island one day or something. Meanwhile folks are buying Microsoft for GPT exposure lol.

Yup. I think his transitory call will almost certainly now be proven correct, just 18 months early…which again is simple. Jerry…in order for inflation to slow they gotta stop giving away monthly checks and they gotta put the masks down in NY and CA….they were still doing that shit 12 months into “transitory”…it fully stopped about a year ago.. I wonder what inflation looks like in July/August…

Off topic… https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/19/elizabeth-warren-jerome-powell-has-failed-as-federal-reserve-chair-.html I don’t totally agree with everything she’s saying, but the totality of the circumstance, ranging from Powell being Trump appointed, to the optics of everything, down to it being the banks he is responsible for regulating ultimately being the casualties of his reckless rate hike crusade, I think this guys days are numbered. He s a total failure. He fell for it. And after bragging about the health of the banking system…bringing it down because he couldn’t be patient with things he himself admitted required patience due to their lagging effects…this guy is a disaster and will be viewed as the clown he is by those that write the books.

Most of finance is a total joke and easily replaceable.

I love nursing and my wife’s entire side of the family does it, but is it really that impenetrable? Get a robot like Stop n Shop has monitoring the isles with a GPT program and just ask the basic questions that get relayed to the higher ups. Even stuff like surgery is highly prone to machines. An electrician or plumber though? That’s untouchable.

This has to happen and the longer they wait, the worse it will be. Another funny offshoot of Geriatric Jerry Powells rate crusade? Run on bank deposits by…..people looking for free money! After all, this free money, is only available to the haves…which gosh darn it, is how it should have been all along.

There will be a benevolent excuse to automate a lot of “the process”. It’s inevitable. We did it with high level Indians and Eastern Europeans to an extent, however the robots will be easy.

Rumor now per CNBC that the Fed will look at this weeks market action to decide 25 or 0 and a pause….guess it’s gonna be a really rough week lol. Does any, like I mean anyone at all, focus on anything beyond the next few days or weeks anymore?

LOL the system was sound as its ever been, until the guys regulating it went rogue.

I could totally dig Berkshire owning like 20% of the entire regional banking sector

Unintended consequences of raising interest rates in hopes of making people poorer? Rich folks demanding more interest on their deposits. Because we all know rich people only control a small percentage of the overall wealth…

A lot of ways it reminds me of the Gamestop crisis. They keep trying to cut the head off behind the scenes and the market keeps sniffing it out and pushing harder for something to break. IMO the only reasonable solution is for Powell to clearly indicate that they are gonna sit tight for a bit at 5%. Giving reasons for any part of the curve to blow out more will be wild. They need things to settle here.

Actually it’ll be good for them!

Yea I have a starter in HIW and forgot how the elevator down goes during crunches like this. Ugh. The VNO/SLG/BXP s of the world, idk but it seems like so many people want to make a value investment out of them that they still aren’t even really “that” out of favor. Basically the WPG or Macerich of the office Reit world. The whole way down people think they’re contrarian and point to the dividend and then one day you look and have an 80% loss and it’s like oh, gee, how’d that happen. ALX though looks good due to simplicity plus higher probability now that VNO buys them for the cash, but office in general is toast. The only people still doing massive offices the last few years were tech and finance lol….whoops.

Eisman is very underrated. Great, flexible thinker. Some people you can just tell see the world in probability rather than black and white.

4% position is XLE

If everybody is migrating to the TBTF banks, why would they have to increase what they’re paying? Out of all my accounts, Chase is easily the worst in terms of a savings rate.