Gregmal

In the real world, one with a brain applies an equal dose of skepticism across pretty much all instances. In the case of somebody conveniently making accusations 30-50 years after the fact, probably even more so. Think you also probably struggle with differentiating various aspects of law, things like burden of proof in a civil cases vs a criminal one, etc. But again, anything Trump related it all just goes to mush. You guys though as it’s been demonstrated time and again, trip over yourselves swallowing anything Trump related, so knock yourselves out. Like even Sanjeev is calling you out on it haha. For me personally, I’ve grown up in the same area Trumps spent most of his life. Everyone knows they guys a piece of shit in a lot of ways. I knew that in like 2005. That really isn’t or wouldn’t be all that impacted by a flurry of these “cases” that bizarrely just happen to pop up after a certain specific date coinciding with his aspirations for public office lol.

The dude literally only comes out of the woodwork to complain about Trump. In the real world what is occurring repeatedly, to Trump, Cook, etc....theres a legal term for it, and it's called malicious prosecution. To dumb it down for the TDS guys, thats when you find the man/woman first, and then go find the crime. Doesnt matter if you eventually find something(theres also an ages old saying about "show me the man and Ill show you the crime", specifically regarding conduct like this)...the act of targeting someone the way that has become common is in fact, illegal.

Yup. The real issues here are clear. 1) Politically motivated attacks using the cloak of "justice". 2) The lack of any real protection of this via a reasonable statute of limitations. On the later, its almost become a joke. Everyone in the country is guilty of something if the onus is finding something or something who can say/allege things like "17 years ago you checked this box on a form" or "47 years ago at a party....". But obviously some of these folks just enjoy munching on the stupid byproduct of these abuses because then they get to label people they hate manufactured terms that they feel good shouting.

Well, that is ironic. That she gets to benefit from low rates..... But, hey, at least we now have Hunter Biden's legal team defending the "independence" of the Fed LMFAO

So this whole Fed saga has been hilarious. For 3 years these guys have been making up excuses to be scared of the inflation they spent the previous two denying. Now they continue to play politics and cost Americans via higher rates just continuously making up new “future” concerns about inflation, that not surprisingly, never come to fruition. So Trump fires one of the incompetents. The MSM and TDS haters obviously are indifferent to incompetence and instead claim to value “independence”. Independence from politics is important they claim. So this clown gets canned, and what does she do? Hire the Democrats A list of PR and legal representation….again making a mockery of the “independent” claims.

One of my favorite questions over the years was always "do you expect it to outperform the index" and the answer was always "fuck if I know but good luck playing that game". Nobody Ive ever met who's constantly outperformed ever cared about what an index was doing. Honestly for most of my investing life, starting in about 2012, most of the experts have had great confidence that "future returns will be meager", and since 2015 "future returns will be far lower the past returns"....

Yup. I’ve got two buckets, one is long term secular/thematic stuff. Long term unbreakable tailwinds with bulletproof balance sheets. The only is more event driven short term catalyst based. The later almost always makes money to the extent I do the work to populate the ideas. And it allows me to mitigate the lumpiness associated with giving core holding a longer leash as it relates to short term performance. When I was mainly focused on managing OPM the mix wwas probably 20% long term stuff and 80% short term make money today stuff. Now it’s more like 80% long term, 20% short term cuz it’s very time consuming having to be plugged into the short term situations and frankly Id rather do other things with my time than play guessing games about relative short term performance.

Nah bro, it’s all good. Nothings wrong. NYC and DC and LA keep winning.

Sure, but it’s a stock. In terms of positive vs negative catalysts the deck is stacked. Expectations are….decades worth of failures low. Pretty much any progress should yield an opportunity to make money with the stock. Awhile ago on here I wrote up the CRISPR stocks as a trade. And there was some skepticism around “I’m having trouble seeing how they make money”…and it’s like “ok you worry about that and I’ll make money in the stocks”, because frankly who gives a shit how these pre rev biotechs make money a decade from now? All the catalysts and positive story developments that are gonna drive the stock’s trading and are ahead of us. And all those stocks multi bagged hard and most today, 7-8 years later are lower…and yes NOW, more than a half decade later after tons of money was made in the stock, these companies are faced with the issue of how they’re actually gonna make money, and most won’t…. but again, is the objective to make money in the market or figure out with exactness something that doesn’t really matter right now?

Nah. Just think anyone who’s somewhat practical realizes polls “do nothing for them”. In fact the only use I’ve seen for “the polls” the last decade or so, is that they’re basically comfort food for the TDS crowd. But like most comfort food, after the short term highs, it tends to be pretty useless or even detrimental.

Everything changed. I’ve followed it since probably 2005. All of that is true. It got interesting during Covid when they were selling good chunks of land, paying $2 yearly dividends, and just floating between $30-40. Few cold winters and hurricanes later though….you’re a smart guy and from what I understand, fairly local to where some of the key stuff like Corkscrew Village are. But certainly brush up on the last 12 months. Had a thorough review process of the assets. Cancelled the Trop contract and completely exited anything citrus related. 100% of focus now, not to mention management comp is tied to working through the entitlement process for the two MPC. Just those MPC alone are likely to result in PV almost 50-100% higher than current market cap by 2029. There’s more to it that warrants investigation, but again, from $30 or wherever it’s been another fairly easy fish in a barrel heads in win and tails I still probably win a little. It’s certainly no JOE or Fairfax or Nintendo, but you give me 5-6% margin, some rather clear runway and incentives, I’ll take my shot. If something more compelling long term comes around, I’m also happy to move on as I’ve done before.

Yup. Like clockwork you can add 5-10% to your annual returns(again, crushing “cash”) on MSGE just selling puts. Frankly I’d have mixed emotions about the stock finally breaking out past $45+.

AMRZ, well you definitely got me interesting my man...thanks for that. Not much to add on top of what you've already touched on in the thread. But in general I view companies like the ones mentioned more assets than operating businesses. So something like UMG, heck Berkshire and Fairfax are operating businesses that much more greatly rely on their stewards for direction and excellence. UMG especially, that world is very competitive and changing to varying degrees. You need excellent managers. Something like TAP/DEO/ALCO/MSGS/AMRZ are kind of assets/brands that a nimrod could run so when valuation isnt stretched I tend to find these very attractive cash subs that have longer term investment potential. MSGS Ive married for over a decade and its done well for me although lately not as much which as we've talked about separately, Im kinda giving that some evaluation in terms of where its proper place is in the portfolio. But TAP/DEO, I know you dont care for, but I mean at 10-15x for those brands, with those balance sheets, Ill hang around and if something else pops up thats a better skew Ill take it. TAP, largely prompted by a lot of the logic @Dalal.Holdingsharped on earlier in the year, I bought low/mid 50s, got some divvys, and on nothing but probably lucky exited over $60 in the heat of the "Liberation Day" panic to buy other stuff. Bought it back again around $50....I can keep myself busy and generate better than cash or margin cost returns just flipping through these and if it goes substantially lower I can back up the truck a good bit.

It’s a great business no doubt. All the stuff we text about really. But in between there is stuff like the capital stack, earnings multiple, secular trends, all on down to type of share class structure. UMG is probably a good investment from here. As you know, we bucket things as it’s totally not something I’d never look at and be like “gee well, Alico or Universal Music?”. UMG is an operating business and is subject to many different risks that something like Alico isn’t. And vice versa. Alico or GYRO or CKX previously(or something like MSGS/AMRZ/DEO/TAP) are basically cash subs with heads I win, tails in don’t lose much profiles that I generally hold on margin and don’t give two shits about as long as I can reconcile the potential timeframe of my involvement and the risk/reward. If I’m buying something like UMG or say Nintendo, I prefer more confidence in the longer term runway where I can just own it and leave it alone. My operating businesses; I prefer to own not needing to fret 20% valuation fluctuations determining the need for smashing buy/sell buttons.

Yup. And all this shit brought to you by the same folks whom lectured everyone about “following the science”. In another world you’d think this is just high quality comedy.

Well that’s why everything is situational. Doesn’t matter the “fill in the blank”; probably with the exception of Malone companies which are just pieces of shit remnants of another eras exuberance and financial engineering. UMG, today? Maybe, maybe not. High conviction? Go for it. But much the same could be said about UMG over the past half decade since it’s been public despite huge fanboying and Ackman with his megaphone. In fact, since being public it’s spent like 80% of its existence underwater. Everything is about picking spots and setups. The tickers are just puzzle pieces.

It is amusing how there’s this wanton disregard for truth and willingness to consistently just accuse “Trump supporters” of certain things; from what I’ve witnessed, many times those things are issues never ever commented on by most of those whom are being accused….but then, now, we have 100% active defense of retard driven government involvement in how many seconds you are permitted to let lapse while operating your own property, or heck, how, it’s NBD someone’s career is impaired with the a $94k “fine” over not sharing the same views of male and female as a few fringers….

It’s a little stunning this sort of stupid government intervention exists, let alone is defended as achieving some type of purpose. Makes me wanna go outside and run my car for no reason for like 25 minutes, AC cranking and all, cuz it’s 90 outside.

Everything is situational. If the incentives align it’s fairly easy to identify a value backstop that skews risk/reward. BRG was the biggest POS with some of the most misaligned business practices, and when it inflected you had virtually no downside and massive upside depending upon how you played it. Things with hard assets and a catalyst are easier if the capital stack isn’t going to kill you. Even the ones that don’t produce favorable in end result, say CKX, present what? No downside and upside of up to 30% between potential inflection and conclusion? GYRO another. You sit around and if nothing goes right it’s a few years of dead money and trading opps…so what? Never really seen the allure others have in shitty telcos or clothing companies with low PEs and massive debt load businesses that only had moats before the internet existed.

I’ve never followed it that closely but my understanding is that JHX was a premium business that definitely deworsified with a bigger than necessary low moat acquisition and without reading the report from today….would imagine that acquisition now ain’t integrating as smoothly as hoped for. Classic growth chasing horror story

Yup. Best post on the subject Ive seen in years.

Lmfao I don’t think anyone with a brain is worried about the impending “takeovers” of Canada or Greenland. But then again, there is TAFFI

He likes the “polls” because in that world Kamala won Iowa and a whole bunch of other favorable things happened that spared him the angst of Trump lol Think Hillary won in a landslide too!

They gossip and obsess over USA POTUS. They call him names constantly. While electing.....cough...Truduea....and then get mad and feel a line was crossed when he's called "governor"....cool

I love Canada. Pretty much everything about it, especially the culture. Just saying though, all this tough talk and….