Gregmal

Lol yup. If someone tells me they’re on twitter it’s an immediate -5 credibility points. It’s a worthless cesspool of attention seeking egomaniacs and people pretending to be experts so they can sell you shit.

Is there anything that isn’t these days?

Yea, I’m feeling pretty good about my investment in Cerebras Systems. Might buy me an island one day or something. Meanwhile folks are buying Microsoft for GPT exposure lol.

Yup. I think his transitory call will almost certainly now be proven correct, just 18 months early…which again is simple. Jerry…in order for inflation to slow they gotta stop giving away monthly checks and they gotta put the masks down in NY and CA….they were still doing that shit 12 months into “transitory”…it fully stopped about a year ago.. I wonder what inflation looks like in July/August…

Off topic… https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/19/elizabeth-warren-jerome-powell-has-failed-as-federal-reserve-chair-.html I don’t totally agree with everything she’s saying, but the totality of the circumstance, ranging from Powell being Trump appointed, to the optics of everything, down to it being the banks he is responsible for regulating ultimately being the casualties of his reckless rate hike crusade, I think this guys days are numbered. He s a total failure. He fell for it. And after bragging about the health of the banking system…bringing it down because he couldn’t be patient with things he himself admitted required patience due to their lagging effects…this guy is a disaster and will be viewed as the clown he is by those that write the books.

Most of finance is a total joke and easily replaceable.

I love nursing and my wife’s entire side of the family does it, but is it really that impenetrable? Get a robot like Stop n Shop has monitoring the isles with a GPT program and just ask the basic questions that get relayed to the higher ups. Even stuff like surgery is highly prone to machines. An electrician or plumber though? That’s untouchable.

This has to happen and the longer they wait, the worse it will be. Another funny offshoot of Geriatric Jerry Powells rate crusade? Run on bank deposits by…..people looking for free money! After all, this free money, is only available to the haves…which gosh darn it, is how it should have been all along.

There will be a benevolent excuse to automate a lot of “the process”. It’s inevitable. We did it with high level Indians and Eastern Europeans to an extent, however the robots will be easy.

Rumor now per CNBC that the Fed will look at this weeks market action to decide 25 or 0 and a pause….guess it’s gonna be a really rough week lol. Does any, like I mean anyone at all, focus on anything beyond the next few days or weeks anymore?

LOL the system was sound as its ever been, until the guys regulating it went rogue.

I could totally dig Berkshire owning like 20% of the entire regional banking sector

Unintended consequences of raising interest rates in hopes of making people poorer? Rich folks demanding more interest on their deposits. Because we all know rich people only control a small percentage of the overall wealth…

A lot of ways it reminds me of the Gamestop crisis. They keep trying to cut the head off behind the scenes and the market keeps sniffing it out and pushing harder for something to break. IMO the only reasonable solution is for Powell to clearly indicate that they are gonna sit tight for a bit at 5%. Giving reasons for any part of the curve to blow out more will be wild. They need things to settle here.

Actually it’ll be good for them!

Yea I have a starter in HIW and forgot how the elevator down goes during crunches like this. Ugh. The VNO/SLG/BXP s of the world, idk but it seems like so many people want to make a value investment out of them that they still aren’t even really “that” out of favor. Basically the WPG or Macerich of the office Reit world. The whole way down people think they’re contrarian and point to the dividend and then one day you look and have an 80% loss and it’s like oh, gee, how’d that happen. ALX though looks good due to simplicity plus higher probability now that VNO buys them for the cash, but office in general is toast. The only people still doing massive offices the last few years were tech and finance lol….whoops.

Eisman is very underrated. Great, flexible thinker. Some people you can just tell see the world in probability rather than black and white.

4% position is XLE

If everybody is migrating to the TBTF banks, why would they have to increase what they’re paying? Out of all my accounts, Chase is easily the worst in terms of a savings rate.

Been leaning towards this over the last week as well. Have a few percent split with WFC and TFC but leaps on a basket or one of the ETFs probably works too. SVB was kind of unique and now it seems everyone thinks it’s cool and edgy to whip out their excel sheets and calculate HTM losses like it’s some grand reveal, but this stuff is and has been common knowledge for a while and love it or not, it’s just the way banks are forced to do things after the last decade. If it’s truly held to maturity then all the hooting and hollering about mark to market is pretty dumb and immaterial…not that I agree with it on a fundamental basis, but a year ago and 5 years ago you hd HTM securities just as you do now. Get over it.

Interesting stuff on Tilson. I was not aware that his parents were both teachers. The investing legend had two teacher parents, went to Harvard, and then immediately launched a hedge fund right out of school. Now sells newsletters. Rags to riches story if I’ve ever heard one.

Strolled over to Seeking Alpha to do some low brainwork reading. My goodness have times changed. Every retail punter is calling a crash and bragging about “locking in” their 5-6% CDs and fixed income stuff lol.

I think the data skews for some very easy victories for sitting President whether it’s energy prices or just plain CPI bragging which is inevitably going to decline for at least another 12 months consecutively(whether this fits @changegonnacome or Jerry Powell s framework IDK but the decline is inevitable), and I also think they’re going to protect the unemployment rate the best they can. Republicans really don’t have control over that and easy headlines like “falling cpi” and “lowest unemployment rate ever” tend to move needles, the same way largely we have seen CPI work the other way against the market over the trailing 12 months. @changegonnacome all good. It’s both fun and productive, even if sometimes redundant

Lol where is the basis for this claim? I own like 5 real positions most of which either long term holdings or bought last year. Up until maybe a week ago I don’t think I’ve bought a stock since last week of December. Since this time last year I’ve been discussing the arc of this all, from summer peak CPI, to rents/housing lapping in the fall, into the final act which was all the Ukraine war stuff. It’s bizarre to me that as we reach the crescendo, the bears are more bearish than ever. Yet we re at like 3800 spy, and again it just kind of highlights to me why bears never make sustained, long term money. Cuz they never know when to say ok, ‘‘twas a good trade”; they’ve always gotta have this next even crazier chapter where “it just keeps getting worse” and despite the declines there’s always “a lot more to come”. I still remember hearing some guy saying SPY 675 was “maybe 20%” higher than it should be in 2009….if rate driven fears cause some banks to collapse and widespread fear as evidenced by the same VIX action you’ve numerous times said you were waiting to see occurs, what else are we hanging onto? Is it cuz VIX is 30 and not 35? Both are good enough markers for me. Are folks still hanging on 3200? There’s really no value in this market? especially given where and how the story has evolved, right as all the things everyone needs to see to call victory by the fall are here… we re still hanging on?

How is this the case when everything you can spend on is not inflating anymore or even deflating? Is the last bastion of the inflation puzzle really the $18 cheeseburger with a mandatory 25% tip? We’ve had decades of job growth with little to no inflation before.