Gregmal

Thanks. Guess it’s just differentiating things open to interpretation. If the goal is to utilize a mechanism that by his own admission, takes 12-18 months to work…it’s pretty darn useless to sit here today and give a speech, and then a week later respond to the next data batch with “it’s not happening fast enough”…like was he expecting 9% to 2% in 4 months? Even if that happened, it just wouldn’t show in the data cuz that’s not how it’s tabulated. @Castanzas cake analogy is perfect… The other issue is the dude is claiming he s fighting inflation, except he s not even following it. He’s been hypnotized by a certain crowd to now redefine inflation as “anything that’s doing ok” and currently focused on jobs. If you ask him where the inflation currently is, I am not sure he could even come up with a valid answer…same goes for the “persistent and sticky” inflation crowd. Where is it currently? If you further eliminated everyone who sat around last year saying higher for longer because of “Ukraine, supply chain, and companies playing games with pricing” who now all of a sudden switched to “jobs and wages”….there’s virtually no case left to be made. It’s obvious, so obvious that even Elizabeth Warren can see it, that the cause of the inflation was almost entirely tied to those things. And those things don’t get solved by extreme rate hikes, or taking away people’s jobs, they get solved with TIME, and it’s happens almost exactly as it’s been happening since the summer. It’s accelerating here into fall ‘23, all you have to do is wait for it. If he wanted to make the argument some are making, that inflation is 4% and it should be 2%…fine, but again, you think that’s going to be something discernible from that data this week? Lol like wtf? And either way, the solution for THAT, isn’t jacking rates up to 6/7. This guy is literally drunk on attention and hypnotized by academics and hopefully it doesn’t hurt too many people. Schmuck banks failing is fine. Rich tech bros having to get real jobs is fine. Bitching about jobs and wages cuz blue collar folks are finally having some success getting paid…fuck him. Or cuz it costs to much to eat out….dine at home Jerry. Eating at a restaurant ain’t a god given right. We don’t need 6% rates so that you and your pals are the only ones who can afford to make a reservation.

3% position between TFC and WFC

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/13/stress-like-1987-evercore-warns-svb-fallout-will-force-new-market-low.html Another wizard with his super scary prognostications yet a year end target over 4000…. So, are these low 3000 price forecasts just 1) blip on the intraday target? 2) Fair values? 3) buy points? Because if they’re 1 or 3 then 3500 is probably more reasonable and that’s like 10% from here so who cares? If it’s 2) then there’s probably still a whole lotta stuff thats gotta happen that folks ain’t telling us. Nevertheless I find the prognostications entertaining.

The message in January was wildly different from last few week. Which was different than in October. Or July. This though was the first time where they basically ignored inflation data and just focused on jobs and used jobs as an excuse to raise rates. If this is truly what this guy believes, there’s zero shot at a soft landing. They’ve basically always been at 4-5 on terminal rate. There’s no issue with that. Shifting from a focus on inflation to jobs, while inflation is slowing, and going not only above 5 but now north of 5.5-6 is insanity. There’s a reason only attention seekers have been calling for 6%+ rates…and that’s because it’s so preposterous they know it’ll be good click bait.

They don’t generally. 3/4/5 on the terminal is fine(imo obviously). But in tandem with being at the upper end and then putting on the show he has the last few weeks, that’ll certainly cause some movement in the markets, even if the end rate doesn’t get there. This is stuff a junior in business school sees, meanwhile the Fed employs $6b worth of economists, who I guess didn’t count on it. It’s not being at 4 or 5; it’s being at the top end of that and then giving inconsistent guidance and then getting in front of congress acting like now you need to go even higher when nothing has changed for the worse. 6 might as well be 10 because no one in their right mind believes this jabroni would ever do something so catastrophically stupid. Nevertheless he introduced the idea that he may be that stupid which is largely what sparked all this.

So far, yes, but not if you overdo it. The economy is still fairly strong. If they kill the stuff that’s still chugging along, IE travel, entertainment, restaurants…all bets are off. And sadly, it seems that’s where hypnotized Jerry is now looking, instead of at actual inflation.

If the issue for banks is MTM, doesn’t bind buying or rate cutting guarantee more or less a solution? Much of the craziness with bonds hasn’t even been directly related to the Fed, but people speculating on where the fed ends up. If they came out and said we are holding at 4.75% for a year at least, I’d guarantee many of these assets reprice.

Idk I think there were actually quite a few people who said raise em to 4% or so and then take a breather. Not get near 5 and start being a tough guy when even dumb dumb Elizabeth Warren can see you are off your rocker. Where things started getting funky is when this dope started getting hypnotized by people question his credibility and somehow shifted from worrying about inflation to obsessing over, of all things, jobs! Inflation reads have more or less done what you’d expect the last few months. No one can answer where the inflation problem currently sits because if you look at the big ones…energy, housing, commodities…you’ve got the exact opposite. Oil was at 120 a year ago. Powell had his soft landing and got tricked and now I think it’s still possible but definitely less likely. Throw it up there as another weird “can you believe that really happened” event from the 2020s….central banker trying to put people out of work because he can’t wait for larger sample sizes to be data dependent on.

Beginning of the end of this Fed game; end of the beginning…maybe..for the market leadership baton pass. Between overall inflation readings about to fall off a cliff, plus the biggest areas of excess, tech and crypto bombed out, plus now a very real risk the Fed comes out of this looking really, really stupid for their recklessness with rate hikes despite at the same time acknowledging their delayed effects….I would be shocked if there’s anything more than at most 25 bps more to go before a breather. Think they may even hold at the next meeting. I know it’s cool to be like wow look at how stupid EVERY bank is holding all those mortgages and treasuries…but let’s get real…the Fed and the banks work hand in hand due to the regulations…and it’s clear the Fed had zero plan or communications with the banks on the problems that THEY were deliberately creating out of little more than impatience. It’s now gonna be cat and mouse between the Fed and traders because it’s clearly in the Fed interest to have the banks rally a bit and recover, but when the market knows that…you typically get all the traders pushing the other way.

CRE is bombed out, so is small tech, so short term the stock probably has some downside, but from the current point in time out, these guys solve major problems in the project management process. Government contracts especially where overpaying for security of ass coverage is commonplace. This just seems like something that can work its way into a space that is still relatively archaic and ripe for disruption. Once in it’s hard to replace. So margin expansion is probably a given, as is decent growth on the base revenue if you look out a few years.

Coupang, Procore, Markel

All I can think of with these crypto crap banks getting busted was the times I’d see offers to stake your dogecoin for 8% or how you could margin bitcoin to by cardano or whatever. I just couldn’t help but laugh because offering margin meant that someone was lending against this stuff. But it didn’t stop there. Then we had waves of crypto “hedge funds” and I couldn’t help but think “what kind of scam is this? It’s all one big game of musical chairs…what do you need a hedge fund for?”…. So many people got rich off this and good for them. I’m generally happy for the success of other people. Because end of the day the success will be fleeting if it generally isn’t acquired in a way that is unique. But there is an irony of tech and crypto being the main casualties of the east money hurricane from 2021. And of course, the banks….who are just always the bystander who gets hit by a bus.

This is the right move if true. Good on Janet and Jerry and Joe. Starting out my career at the tail end of GFC…I was a naive but loyal capitalist and die hard “they all should have known better and not been greedy with their mortgages” in response to the banks vs the people taking out mortgages argument. I’ve somewhat evolved over the past 10 years…and giving life the opportunity to present to me different viewpoints has also helped. At which point I think it’s easy to arrive at a conclusion that there are just certain limitations to the amount of due diligence or effort a normal person should be expected to endure. Going through a mortgage process…I’ve done it over a dozen times, is rigorous. Sure, we should all have $500 an hour lawyers to review the docs line by line. But it doesn’t work like that and a slick salesman or banker can easily dupe a normal, well intentioned person. Extending this to bank deposits, I think it’s even more true. How can you have a stable banking system, let alone one that isn’t a duopoly/oligopoly(more so than it already is) if average folks need to do hedge fund level due diligence to ensure the money they deposit or have direct deposited in the checking accounts is going to be available? It’s crazy and just not viable and should be guaranteed in far higher amounts than the F.D.I.C. limits. As for the bank itself, it should fail. Shareholders and bond holders should meet their fate. But that’s the difference, some parties entered this engagement with the expectation of something beneficial … others, just figured hey this is where people in my hood keep their cash. Big difference.

I’m a huge fan of Ackman the investor but following his investing involves subjecting yourself to Ackman the person. And Ackman the person is just a world class scumbag slimeball. Just using the names mentioned here as a benchmark, Chanos is deceptive and all but just pushing his agenda/book…run of the mill Wall Street. Talib is obviously an insecure guy who needs attention and thrives off feeling superior and kicking people when they’re down. Then there’s Billy, who does both of those but then wraps it in a stench filled, totally insincere veil of benevolence and “I’m trying to help the world be a better place” mantra. Which makes me wanna vomit.

COVID is the only time they really just said ok let’s ensure we get it right, no bs. Pretty much every other instance they look to half ass a solution, or band aid stuff, or appease those who think they need to retain their “credibility” and generally speaking, it doesn’t work. I’m still not quite sure what’s driving people other than attention, panic, or self interest, but this kind of event seems to be amplified by the fact it effects all the social media people and techies. Wonder how many of these smaller companies end up inside FANG. While I think the census is clearly a gross and bigly red Monday open, but when you look rationally here.. well capitalized FANG and big banks are probably beneficiaries of all this.

Did anyone read the latest Ackman stuff? Is he drunk? Paraphrased here but basically everyone is going to pull everything from non insured bank deposits and go to treasuries which is going to cause a global economic meltdown, which in turn will cause rates to decline, which will hamper the Feds ability to raise rates which is necessary to slow the economy and defeat inflation….lol wtf?

Taleb is another one. The common theme with most short sellers or folks like this is this personality defect where they need to feel superior. They’re all the same. They need to be the guy during the once to twice a decade declines who stands up and lectures and boasts about how much money they made and how everyone else should have seen it coming. IE roundabout “look at me, see how smart I am” boasting. All while others are down. However we saw too how these guys do the other 90% of the time..whether it Paulson or Einhorn or Chanos….no one envies their 3/5/10 year performance records. I mean look at Chanos for instance now…pathetic old man who spends his days tweeting, often in deliberately negative and deceptive ways, hoping to influence his holdings lol. It’s sad.

Truist I’m going to keep an eye on. However I think the money will be finding a few derivative trades of the regionals. Not sure exactly what they are yet, but things that get thrown out with the bath water due to guilty by association or shoot first ask questions later mentality. I think we already kind of saw signs of this with JPM getting crushed and then reversing Friday. The dumb dumbs and bots will bid down everything, but then real investors will realize winners are being given away. Not much different than tech stocks in March of 2020. Folks sold them and it’s like yo, you realize this is good for them, right?

I can’t imagine having that much money; and still feeling the need to be a self serving piece of shit like that, for the purpose of acquiring more money…. Its so strange but there really is nothing that gets these slimy finance guys hard like short selling and talking bank runs.

So if they don’t have any issue regarding their holdings, that BAC or WFC doesn’t have, and it’s really just about liquidity, this seems to be a rather easy problem to solve, and IDK, but judging from the read between the lines crap from Ackman et al, probably even at some price, becomes a mighty good deal for someone. Given the % of non FDIC accounts, you’re basically acquiring a HNW/private client biz.

100%. It’s why I laugh when these idiots give their prepared remarks and talk about how “inflation isn’t coming down fast enough”….morherfucker…there’s CPI reads once a month and there’s only 12 months in a year…of course your damn monthly data reads aren’t at 2% from 9% 4-5 months later LOL. And you shouldn’t be alarmed that in 2 weeks they didn’t get there yet either.

Think of it again, full circle…Teary Eyed Bill last spring..”the Fed MUST raise rates substantially to regain credibility!”…as he holds rate swaps poised to make billions if that happens. Now? Teary Eyed Bill…”we must bail them out, and use immigration to solve the labor issue”…..

^^totally. I definitely think this event is the beginning of the last chapter or so of this saga. The Fed has done a remarkable job, overall, since GFC, but the last two years really put egg on their faces in a big way. They let ZIRP run way too long into 2022, and then overreacted way too heavily with all the tough guy talking and rate hikes, culminating in this weeks events. People can shit on BofAs reserves/duration of holdings…but it’s been pretty darn clear over the last decade BofA, on the spectrum of good banks and bad ones, is a good bank. They and many others just played the environment they had to, which the Fed created. Then along comes JPow, like an insecure 14 year old girl, worried about what others think of his “credibility”…and freaks out with rates hikes over the course of 9 freakin months lol. The biggest egg on the face though, IMO, isn’t even policy decision, but the fact that they very clearly demonstrated that they can be manipulated by people wealthy and influential enough, simply by publicly attacking the their “credibility”. At the end of all this, they showed they cared more about the public perception of their credibility, than they actually cared about doing their jobs.