Gregmal

Ok so on KW, because to me, KW seems to be something that falls into the “old Fairfax” bucket…it’s one of those companies that has the Fairfax halo and thus over the years has tended to trade at an undeserved premium. They own some pretty unremarkable assets, in some pretty lousy locations, and I’ve never spent much time going past surface level analysis with it because it’s just so obviously unappealing almost immediately. Why is Fairfax still here and what’s the point in going forward this route versus something more independent or sensible from an investment standpoint?

Do you see what’s been unveiled as culturally embedded in our highest and supposed “brightest” institutions lately?

Yea I had no idea that anyone would weigh anything related to the Tylenol stuff even remotely as heavily as they did. That’s such an obvious bullshit grifter pipedream suit.

We need a collection of Jerrys greatest hits. Early 2021 inflation was transitory(off by 18 months, expert!) 2022-3 Fed Stress Tests on banks using MAX rate hikes 200 bps higher(then raises rates 500 bps triggering bank failures) Says any rate hike would have a multi year lag, then whines a couple months into the process "not seeing enough progress" Keeps jawboning about inflation being persistent and entrenched as we parade from 9-2! Openly worries about energy prices despite energy prices being no higher than they were decades ago Laments higher than normal inflation while being totally unaware of the fact that the only reason it current is higher, is because of housing and HIS rate hikes are the reason housing is elevated And these are our experts! Only thing more amusing is that theres still no shortage of market followers who wait around trying to anticipate what this clown will say at his next presser or boys and girls club speech.

Whereflation? Whaflation? Huhflation? This whole spectacle was so laughably predictable and played out just like COVID. In fact, that herky jerk parabolic spike then plummet chart we talked about oh so much through the COVID and supply chain cycle…making its last trip through the system, currently with interest rates. People need to stop being so gullible. Long live entrenched and sticky. Maybe next year we get some deflation(remember when folks laughed at that idea) as jerkoff Jerry realizes he got hoaxed by high finance and academia. Got a conspiracy theory that Ackman controls Fed policy and that’s why he’s always trading it so perfectly. The most recent Twitter pumping of higher for longer(investors would be STUPID to accept ANYTHING less than 5.5%!) and then cover and bet on lower rates was classic game is rigged shit because it was all sandwiched around…largely nothing happening.

Higher level finance is basically just all about who can lie the most aggressively/sensationally while quasi supporting it with misrepresented data in order to get eyeballs and AUM. Very similar to high level politics.

I’ve always felt bad for people who are so consumed with their image and how they are perceived by others. Such a shallow way to live. Ray seems like the king of the category.

What further amplifies the ridiculous nature of the negativity and perpetual “expensive” bemoaning, is that we just got to what? 16-18x index earnings, WHILE so much of the index is made up of stocks people regularly bemoan as even more ridiculously valued? So in other words, non fab 7 or whatever, we were probably into what would be considered absolutely absurdly cheap territory for much of the components? But missed it because of headline staring and recession forecasting I guess?

All I’d take from this is that you pretty much never get to buy when the entire thing is showing sub 15x and that 17/18x is pretty average. I’d also argue that the 50s-80s is more or less an irrelevant and incompatible comp to todays markets, for so many reasons. That said I still question why anyone would care. Just easier to look for companies, sectors, areas, whatever…that offer an attractive profile. We re beginning to see some of these threads demonstrate how people spend years on end being scared or calling for doom to pretty much no avail.

ESG was just a sign that investing had periodically gotten way too easy. Focusing on the BS ESG stuff was a smug institutional game, much like Goldman employees trying to score exactly a 70 on their series 7s, or a baseball player deciding he was going to hit from now on with one hand behind his back.

There has been a lot of fanfare around bonds but really most of it is just "please spare me the volatility" masquerading around as financial savviness.

Sports leagues are legal monopolies and the teams are businesses/hobbies that come with a perpetual handjob for one’s ego.

I love Kuppys summary of that period of time…”Our disparate account statements stand witness to the decisions we each made.”

I have no idea why people keep coming to the table with “sports teams need to be valued on cash flow” stuff. Never have, never will. Same as the Mona Lisa.

Yea it’s hard to be sad because you know this guy lived life how it should be lived, did it the right way, and got the most out of everything. 99 great years, sharp and seemingly in great health til the end, generous, on his own terms…if only we d all be so lucky. Will selfishly miss what he brought to this world in terms of wisdom, but this is a life that should be celebrated.

People kept trying to make COVID this really big deal til Q4 2021 as well, even though it was obviously over. All we can do is thank them for their money and the opportunities.

The carvana estimates I get for a few cars have declined 25-35% last 8 months. Remember when people were still obsessed with inflation LOL?

This was one of the coolest things I’ve seen in a while…watermelon art at Thanksgiving Brunch

Happy Thanksgiving all

It’s so funny how behind the curve everyone was on this whole thing. NOW they’re seeing it lol!

Nah I’ll again take the other side. Druck buying tech was capitulation. Chanos finally shutting down was a 3 legged dog finally realizing it shouldn’t be trying to qualify for the Kentucky Derby…after a decade of trying. He’s been a disgrace for two decades now and outside of trying to suck up credit for fundamental calls during instances when simply everything went down, he hadn’t done shit but grift and freeload.

LOL that’s what happens when your analysis is so poor that you look at a company like Veris and walk away with the conclusion of “30x EBITDA, great short!”. His desperation the last few years was pathetic. Every chance he got to go on Twitter or TV and bash stocks he took; hoping to make his shorts work. It was cringy.

So Fairfax touched $900 this year, and now clownshop operator Chanos is out of business….solid year for the good guys.

Ray peddling more BS on CNBC this morning….

There’s also this kinda of mafia level “wink, wink” understanding in the pits of the institutions managing OPM where they all promote certain things…mainly there own safety and security versus the quality of the product they deliver. I would almost certainly guarantee that most of these guys would even agree that the way they manage OPM isn’t the way they would manage their own; unless of course, managing their own came with a PE like performance enhancer via fees generated from outside capital. So yea, it’s 100% designed for and by institutional managers. The guys getting paid huge salaries and fees, the fund of fund guys, etc, none of this stuff is designed to actually optimize returns.