Gregmal

Suuuuuuure….youve certainly been this rabid about it for 8+ years lmfao. There’s very clearly the TDS crowd whom makes up part of the infatuation. Identifiable by those whom magically gained interest last February or whatever. Then there’s also a big chunk of….eh, uhm, not sure the exact word or phrase so metaphorically….will just use an analogy. Had a friend visit not long ago. February is horrible for sports due to scheduling gaps and offseason/breaks. Friend doesn’t really care about sports though will watch a good game. So I’m flipping around looking for a game to put on, but nothing. Then went to a sports documentary and he was just like “bro, I don’t care for sports, but I’ll watch a game. But a documentary? I just don’t have even the slightest bit of interest in this.” It’s was funny. But yea, apply that to pedo true crime and that seems to be a rather substantial proportion of the “Epstein File” audience as well. So yea….immigration is going to make or break republicans at mid terms, and right now it ain’t looking good.

Nah, think you’re right he’s toast but wrong on the reason. Like if we get real, it’s a bunch of coo coo conspiracy theorists and sad drama whores that are making all the noise about the Epstein stuff. Rationally viewed, the Epstein story has been around for a long time. The guy is dead. The files sat with Garland/Biden for four years as well….its one of those things the loudest divas are excited about but not gonna be a doomer because most people have better things to focus on with their lives. What is going to be a doomer for Republicans is the crazy overreach and clever marketing of the ICE stuff by democrats. Immigration started off great with Trump sealing the border. But everything else has been a disaster PR wise. The optics of taking over cities, beating up protesters, eh you know what, he could probably even get away with that. But the aggressive nature of the raids and attacks on immigrants is really where it all falls apart. The reason being, is EVERYONE, don’t matter where you are, knows someone who knows someone who’s been affected by the ICE stuff. And people, regardless of skin color, don’t like their communities being disrupted. I know they are getting bad people off the street in some cases, but if even out here in conservative Florida we know people who were well liked and long standing whom are running into these issues, that’s no bueno.

Totally. I also shit all over Apple as a one trick pony at 15x in like 2017 or whenever everyone was backing up the truck. I learn tremendously from being wrong. It’s certainly better than being right by accident which of course happens sometimes too. Always refining the process is crucial. It’s just that being intellectually honest when engaging in these sort of things is pretty crucial too. Especially when you consider some stuff, more evident in some individual stock threads, where there’s collective group work going on, that everyone can benefit from the evolution of the collective group work snowball if it evolves the right way. I’m basically willingly to engage pretty much anyone with a quarter of a brain or more, provided your entire purpose here isn’t to have 100% of your posts be rambling about some old dude you don’t like or whatever. As such, sometimes I get myself in silly circular, redundant, and repetitive arguments that are a waste of time. Buying back stock at $100 to shrink the business and close the NAV gap, then pivoting to making a massive debt funded acquisition, then issuing stock at $55, and then repurchasing stock again at $100 is downright stupid and I don’t need to spend oodles of my time debating the circumstances and reasons why it’s not; it’s self evident and warrants no further discussion. So yea, sometimes I’d be better off just disengaging!

The conversations were all here and repetitious and you were involved in them when they occurred which is why the rearrangement of the argument was puzzling to me. They were; -tariffs were going to be massively inflationary -this would force the Fed to hike -This tips us into a deep recession or even depression -Stagflation….duration gets smoked and the market does horrible Some of us said none of these things are going to happen and “this is what I’m doing”. Being long some duration(on margin) was one of those positions for me as market insurance. When you look at those arguments, absolutely none of those things occurred, which is evidenced by some of the numbers you’ve posted. And in no way, shape or form would I ever make such a crazy claim as bonds or cash would outperform the market. If you want to underperform, it’s virtually guaranteed that owning those types of things will lead to just that.

Lmfao my god I swear sometimes you’re just a troll. No one made that argument. It’s further odd because you were part of the discussions between @gfp, myself and some others the they occurred. But you tend to do this from time to time. Howard Hughes capital allocation isn’t horrible, it’s actually good. Joes performance issue has nothing to do with Bruce. FRPH management is doing a great job doing exactly what they’ve been doing. Ugh….like seriously…unless @gfpmade some statements I’m unaware of that you’re attributing to me mistakenly, I don’t think anyone ever said duration would outperform the index lol. That’s like the stupidest thing I’ve ever heard. But nevertheless here we are. From “you’re going to get wiped out being long bonds”(which iirc you were basically on the same page as us “no we won’t” guys) to now….its underperformed the index…. As I stated then, my purpose for even owning anything was because I’d rather express a semi bearish hedge position via owning big chunks of duration than taking the “cash/short the market” view others were broadcasting. This is a bit head scratching.

Well all ya gotta do is go back and read. Clearly if you owned duration, you know those bearish calls missed the market. Unless we re gonna do one of those ultra nitpicky nerd things where there’s a half dozen adjustments and the selectively chosen benchmarks…but when someone says I wouldn’t own something with a 10 foot pole and rates/inflation are certain to go higher when the 10 year in the mid 4s and inflation around 3….one would think common sense people could agree that stuff didnt happen.

Just picking out the most obvious one, as there’s many. (Not all specifically related to you) But the above wasn’t the proclamation. Perhaps revisit some of the lectures @gfp got a while back. But basically all the above shift goalposts from “you’re an idiot for owning duration” and “inflation is gonna take off” to “they didnt outperform” and “inflation was 2%”…..

It's actually more a matter of accountability and making assessments, putting time into them. debating them with people, and then being able to admit how it played out when the dust settles. It's pretty clear most of the dust has settled on a lot of those claims. And for some reason some just cant seem to reckon with that. Mainly I assume because some simply cant get over their politician itch to "never agree" on anything with other posters....The original @gfp part related to the "youre an idiot owning a bond with duration" claims made on this same thread. The Hampton call. We touched on others. The impending Depression. The dollar losing reserve currency crap; soaring inflation. If you were a proponent of that narrative, it was a loser. Thats all. The past bunch of comments/pages seem to be mealy mouthed nitpicking to save face from admitting as much. No greater example than an inflation call that doesnt pan out, which then turns into...2% inflation still means prices rose 2%.....

Of course they are, theres no rule of law in Europe. Here as you see, these creeps go through the gross and disturbing "files" with a half hand on, see which ones are political enemies, and then do the "besties with a pedo" chant even though its pretty obvious that someone whom infiltrated such a high level of NYC finance and fashion as Epstein did, likely met with and emailed tens of thousands of folks over the decades. But pea brained tabloid culture in America means a bunch of self serving politicians and keyboard warriors on X think theyre going to "bring everyone mentioned to justice" lol.

But generally speaking, it’s ok if not everybody gets it.

I’ve spent more than enough time over the years on this along with others like @changegonnacome detailing this so it’s out there. Elevator summary; first wave inflation during Covid was real Fed feared type inspired by free covid money and government induced supply chain problems. Once that was working itself out of the system the remainder was largely housing related caused by higher rates…Do these idiots who take the simpleton definition/approach wanna sit here with a straight face and argue that rate hike caused inflation mandates the Fed to further raise rates to fight inflation lmfao?!?! This last wave if you wanna even call it that(that last post before yours and mine seems to imply that oh boy the “inflation” goalposts have moved again to basically “anything above zero”) but by my counts right now there’s marginally elevated inflation still present due to higher rates but generally speaking, 2-3% inflation as we currently see is a total nothing burger.

Lol talk about the definition of pointlessly politely charged arguments and deliberately obstinate. The argument all along, clear as day is that the context around the increase is really what’s relevant. Mainly the role of price stability as it relates to supply and demand. This really is quite unbelievable. Even more so considering my inflation commentary has easily been the most consistent, not to mention accurate and actionable/on point in terms of pretty much anyone posting here now going back 5 years…. Why is shit so easy? Maybe it’s starting to make sense lol

For real lmfao

That would make selling Nikes impossible economically. A different phenomenon than inflation as it relates to monetary policy…

The past 5 years, with the exception of 2024 which was pretty entirely boring on the drama front sans a few valuation calls, every year there’s been pretty strong and opinionated/spirited expressions made. Yes sometimes I group them together but we ve all been around long enough to see some epic ones. Sure, my generalities don’t apply perfectly to everyone, but there are definitely social collections of contras and .054 batting averages out there, who nevertheless show up to work the next day not only thinking “this time is different” but being completely void in recollection of their own track records. Sure, track records in terms of our personal accounts is not what I’m referring to; a fools game on the internet….but perhaps I am mistaken if the assumption is that people have money behind the convictions they express socially. There were a LOT of depression/recession/inflation calls in the Spring. None of that has bore out.

I really think the answer is for Sanjeev to create a FacePalm Hall of Fame for posts that we can aggregate to highlight epic wrong calls over the years. I still think my all time favorite was in late April 2020, something to the tune of “Everyone’s been warned and has had their bounce. Whoever is stupid enough not to have sold this suckers rally will get what they deserve”….but there’s definitely plenty of others we ve accumulated over the years. Maybe we can call it Hampton Hall.

This was the question I recall that started most/a lot of the debate. And unfortunately many are only bound to their forecasts, predictions, etc…by words. Much similar to how in retrospect, everyone and their mother was a raging bull in March, April, May 2020….if you go back to April-June of 2025, the overwhelming consensus was 1) do NOT even think of touching bonds of any duration. 2) Tariffs equal price increase which equals inflation which forces fed to raise rates per their mandate, 3) the whole scenario will create stagflation and we ll have a depression by fall, 4) cash isn’t trash. 5) do not touch the stock market All I’ll say is for the folks talking that game, if they actually had the nuts to put money behind those convictions….. oopsy daisy!

Simple enough right? Or so we’d think. At least it was for us….like I joked in the other thread with @Mephistopheles, this is why we prosper.

I think Covid just boggled perceptions and in general how people approach things. There seems to have developed this newer and simpler idea after 2021s inflation bonanza that “increase = inflation” and that “fed job = 0-2% inflation”. But inflation is not just simply “today, how much more than yesterday?”. It’s really simple but like I said, COVID kinda scrambled brains and reinvented a lot of theories more academic and less real world in nature and folks get confused.

Tariffs need context but in general tariffs are not inflationary. No, not at all. If anything they create a setup for deflation. Inflation again, as Jerry has said every presser has to do with price stability. A one off increase is not unstable. For instability, see 2x4s during covid. $2 to $7 to $5, to $12 to $9...with empty shelves regardless. The whole ecosystem and cogs related to 2x4 market was in chaos. Thats instability. If today, a $3 2x4 is hiked to $5, there will be no supply issues. Demand will either meet it, and assuming that tariff remains, the price will just stay there, +/- "real" inflation adjustments going forward. If the consumer no longer needs/wants/can afford the $5 2x4, youre actually setting up a situation where deflation might occur. Which if anything, is basically whats eroding Nikes business. Not their Vietnamese and Malaysian inputs being taxes a few extra bucks...it's the fact that have way too much overpriced inventory nobody wants.

But this is also why(with probably the exception of CROX who's had the same post covid execution issues Nike does, that they too are now conveniently blaming on tariffs) I just dont bother owning companies with loser management teams.

Again, maybe on some shallow surface levely way where we re trying to backfill narrative. But Nike had major covid hangover issues and has been executing horribly for years prior to tariffs. The 5 year chart is what? $140 to $62? But sure leave it to a poorly managed group to latch onto the flavor of the day excuse for their continued shoddy execution. All their issues just magically appeared when tariffs became a thing lol.

Nah that sort of cursory first level nerd thinking is why so many people got it wrong. “Inflation” relates to price increases in the context of supply and demand instability. Remember all the lectures about the importance of “price stability”? A one off hike, regardless of how big, isn’t inflation. And it wasn’t even that big either. Remember the “OMG 100% tariffs on Nikes!!!!” groaning…when the real world effect was like a $7 hike on the components that totaled like $18 from Malaysia or whatever.

What’s absolutely stunning is how obvious this outcome was, yet how unbelievably arrogant and sure everyone was back in April/May/June about tariffs/inflation. Going back and rereading those threads must be pretty humbling for a lotta folks. As usual, Greg was right again.