Gregmal

Nah there’s a simple and capitalist answer; one Trump already raised. Sell the infrastructure like bridges and highways to private enterprise. They’ll take care of them properly. And our government will endure the same fate all poorly managed and over-levered entities do. All that’s fine too. Good for efficiency.

I also don’t think we found a way at the time to express a belief that was somewhat arcane in terms of expressing it profitably. Best one IIRC was 5.50-6 Fed Funds futures which was a bust.

I think the issue with ‘Nish is really one with a lot of finance dudes. If we just called a spade a spade and that’s it, I doubt people would care. Guys an entrepreneur, and a good one. Opening a fund is about one thing, make money for himself. Nothing wrong with that. He’s gonna market it. Nothing wrong with that. Except in the finance world, you get these guys, who can’t just admit the simple truth, but rather need to feed the monstrous egos too. A dentist or a warehouse owner makes their money but they don’t go around lecturing everyone on how alpha male they are or how unique they are; they just have their businesses and make money from it and everyone knows B is because of A. In finance, you get these guys making tons of money, doing things that aren’t even that hard, like charging AUM fees, and then they go around acting like because they have a lot of money or because they run a fund, that they’re visionaries and elite investors LOL. Essentially trying to convince people that B is because of 1/8d+TK^3. That’s kinda the issue imo. The best example I can think of are investment bankers. At the core, they’re glorified real estate agents or car salesmen who spent way more time in school. But they don’t do anything special they just charge % fees after convincing someone to move money around.

Edward Norton, Kevin Spacey, Denzel....best modern era actors IMO All pretty unique and brilliant individuals.

Tough making a living trying to call 10% fluctuations.

Haha nice. I guess it’s ultimately the lens you look through which shapes the view.

Yea I’m super fat and happy on 30 year fixed at 3/4/5 rates from primaries to investor loans. No plan to sell but if a bank said hey that $450k mortgage can be paid off for $325k I’d probably consider it, or at least do partial buybacks if available. But knowing the system if I say hey I got this one here at $450k with a 3.25% what’s the payoff they’d say $452k lol and it’s like ok enjoy your NIM

Kind words appreciated but I like being away from the crowds. Figuratively and literally.

Is there actually a legitimate way to do this? Would imagine getting a payoff quote aint getting you a discount to amount outstanding.

Yea obviously coal is high conviction for him(I think Horsehead was too) and the launch point is basically just hoping to catch a massive year or two out of the gate and then be able to market this for the next decade or two as an “outperformer”.

Bought some save Sucker for reversals lol

If you’re retired you probably also have huge home equity. Despite that whole crock of shit from people claiming we have a housing crash on our hands…

Peoples desire to be in the stock market without accepting the risks that come with being in the stock market continues to make clever salesmen rich…when will they learn? Probably never. Especially if you tell them scary stories.

The bar for a roaring 20s is also so much lower today because of efficiency. Imagine going on a vacation from NY to say Cape Cod in the 20s? The cost relative to average wage? The time? Today it requires much less for people to live well and we finally do at least temporarily seem to have an environment where if folks want to do well, they can work hard for it.

So the debate is settled then? They probably shoulda just bought stocks

Tops in on rates, yup.

You speak soundly on a lot of issues! The Fed has basically committed ALREADY! to cutting rates, and potentially hard, on economic weakness. They’ve backed themselves into a corner on the “landing” part, since they’ve been 100% the reason for it even existing! Double down on that with their constant bs about rooting for economic weakness, and you bet your last buck they’ll be there to save face, along with the politicians and all the usual suspects.

Yea I’d just margin some of those FRP-bills you got and then payback the car loan equivalent every month.

More DEO

Isn’t the story a whole lot simpler? -This is a business that generally produces acceptable returns. -We are in a macro environment where this type of business should produce better than average returns. -We are still being punished for the sins of a company and macro situation that really doesnt exist anymore. Thats all you need for massive outperformance, and it’s already showing up.

Meanwhile even ambitious attempts to solve problems are met with resistance from the scummy establishment. Even when it means out light making up links and issues that don’t exist just to kill time. https://nypost.com/2023/11/12/business/utopian-city-california-forever-still-faces-national-security-probe-pols/

I totally agree with this take. I added for the first time since high $400s the day before earnings. The inclination was always to sell this thing but when I’d step back and look at the facts it just seemed like a given this is setup for 10%+ for at least the next 3-5 years assuming all else equal.

In the meantime ignorant and rich Americans will continue to bash Asian and Middle Eastern countries who are structurally better off than we are. I’ve always been amused by this dynamic. Cuz you know, the horrors of living in Dubai where it’s a crime to lack integrity or morals lol. We need to be more like Merica where you can legally shit yourself on the sidewalk and then pass out with a needle hangin out your arm.

Totally. Thought this was the most likely scenario coming out of COVID and it still seems so. Once the idiots at the Fed get told to exit stage left…. to fuck off with this dumb obsession over 1% of an arbitrary number…it’s off to the races. Housing and infrastructures are coiled and ready to go; just being held back by Fed retards and their nonsense. Once folks understand how much is tied to the housing and infrastructure ecosystem, a glimmer of which we saw in 2021…the magnitude will become apparent.

Nothing special. Just a good enough brand at an ok enough valuation that I’ll look at in 5 years and sleep well at night in between.