dealraker

All solid thinking it seem to me UK.

Agree that this is not a list for outstanding investing going forward. But it does suggest that these type businesses exist, that a good business is worth holding. My ownership of an initial tiny few NSC shares led to - relative to me - huge gains in owning all the railroads. And reading John Train's books led me to Buffett's quote as to insurance brokers being a toll booth on the world economy. These type businesses enabled me to avoid blowing in and blowing out of an endless array of stocks in an attempt to get a quick return. But many or most want bigger returns than this model suggests is possible via looking at those long term outcomes.

Decades owner and won't sell in my lifetime. I easily see the authors point of view and your logical one too UK. I have no guess as to returns, but I have some strong thoughts on the inevitable journey. Inevitable...at least in my mind.

I think, and my older age thinking (I continually increase the omissions and mistakes in my thinking - and particularly my writing - as I age) may be in error here, that there is some degree of mental advantage infused to your (an investors) brain via holding ownership of businesses for a long time. What I mean by this is that you do get some insight as to the probability that this or that business is one of sustainable good outcome. Although I've never really owned tech stocks (I have owned Google for about 20 years) as a whole my long term (40 years plus) returns both in tax and tax free accounts have been pretty steady and over 14%. That 14% has mostly been enabled by owning a few good businesses that were never sold. But at the same time there's a lack of really poor performers in these portfolios and I think that comes from the knowledge (and/or luck) from owning the better stocks in the portfolio and getting some insight to what makes business have some sorts of long term sustaining traits. I watched an investor who had outrageously grand results for the 2015 to 2021 period, a guy who had bought into the SAAS theme...and he'd basically gone online to promote/interact with his followers, I think with good intentions. I've made a few posts on his site, quickly he blocked me (I wasn't rude) and within a short period of time literally his entire model was imploding all over the place- even given his earlier wild success (and continued to implode as he went into rapid buy/sell mode on multiple entities not related to his original SAAS mandate). So in the end he still had good returns since his beginning of 2015 (that he sited in every post he ever made) but literally hundreds if not thousands who took on his method got the downside of his obvious low probability investing style. Often these late-comers were losing 3/4's of their savings in their retirement accounts and trying desperately to think rationally about what to do was obviously traumatizing to this bunch. I have had a few write to me outside the site who lost over 80% of their investments based on this investor they become enchanted with. The way I invest, or at least my perspective of it, is basically "and idiots guide of how to almost guarantee you don't do poorly." This list in the link that Spek has posted, I do own quite a few of these stocks - my starting point wasn't 1925 but about 1975...and still these businesses did very well and continue to do so. I have bought a few more of these along the way. All of them have poor periods of return, growth and success isn't linear. Instead of bailing out in the poor periods I've chosen just to observe. But in the end, even without the 80-some percent of my portfolio that is either Berkshire or insurance brokers I'd easily be able to retire for decades comfortably with the "other" stocks I inherited in 1975. That inheritance of those stocks I mention, leaving out the 80-plus percent of the Berk/brokers (I bought all my broker stocks later in 1994), was about $30,000 so it wasn't some huge figure. But today it is a huge figure, or at least to little ole me it is huge. And yes there are long periods of either low or no success, no returns whatsoever. Rambling.

Superb example, the banyan tree. I'm often looking at my investment accounts and seeing a few "stocks" with business names I've never heard of. Didn't know they were being spun off and have no clue until I do some investigation. The goal for us is of course as mentioned many times, to create a sustainable model for those who follow if they choose to use it. So far our method model is spoken about by them - as the next generations choice too.

Today since I'm in the chatty mode online I'll re-tell the AJ Gallagher story of my Lexington Investment Club. This is not my personal story of owning AJG (since 1994), this is my suggestion to the club, something worthwhile to think about today given the valuation of AJG is quite "firm" so to speak LOL. The year was about 2015 or so (too lazy to look) and AJG for whatever reason had fallen to $35 per share and was yielding 3.8 percent or so. The "PE" based on earnings had fallen to about 15 or so and the free cash earnings had it substantially less. Our club, a club with value investing obsessions, decided to go for it and buy the stock. But, as was always the case, in a club of 25 and a portfolio of over $1 mil the $20k that was suggested to me was a disappointment. The stock did very well of course, but then as it first approached the high $70's I began to hear the chant. The club experts (not me) stated: "AJG stock price is borrowing from the future as the price line in the 22-23x eps range is escalating well above the 15 times earnings line where we bought it." And then of course the dreaded: "We need to sell AJG and buy Bristol Myers, a cheap value stock that's trading substantially below the 15 times earnings line." We sold AJG at $82 somewhere about 2018-19 and bought Bristol Myers BMY at $63 or so. Most of use have funds in the club via taxable $ so we also paid tax on our gains with AJG. Six or so years later AJG has gone from $82 to $270 or so and BMY is about where we bought it. AJG is expensive...and so is Brown and Brown which I know some of you bought. My advice to you who bought Brown and Brown? Figure out how to live a long life. And keep the damn stock.

73 Reds, as I've stated here many times, time and price have informed me which businesses were the best, not my personal trading expertise. I have many stocks in the 100-and-way-up-from-there "bagger" status and yes some crumbs that I have written about here too...you know the go to zero types LOL. I inherited about $47,000 of stocks in 1975 by the way. Even then not a lot of money. For decades around here basically everybody either owned or traded Coke and Pepsi for instance. Counting the spin off of YUM which gave me a bunch of stocks, the outcome of holding Coke and Pepsi since 1975? Well, I remember the local business titans discussing holding Coke and Pepsi...and I also remember the guys who in the upcycles decided to buy and sell Coke and Pepsi - a repeated pattern. Luckily I was drafted into an investment club that began in 1954 where for decades I was the youngest member. These men bought and held and they were the cream of the crop locally in financial matters. Yea, in the long run the men/women and their heirs who held instead of traded? Well, these families have one HELL of a lot of money. This is one hard issue to discuss for me and I'm not good at it. I find that so few people understand the longevity of holding stocks...and that the web is a place where the time frame focus for owning stocks is hyper short.

Sorta easier in some respects to just own some decent businesses via stocks and live long for satisfactory results. Some, like parts of your health given this longevity, blow up. But kind of like my enlarged prostate that's getting me a delightful cystocopy in a month, overall the result is - compared to others - just a relative short pain in the groin on your way to financial success.

I mention 1st cousins, relevant because all of us lost our fathers (they were brothers) by 20 (some long before 20), thus our close connections and some of us (4) are in the builders supply and millwork business together (where we have a relatively large investment portfolio also). I hold all the stocks I inherited in 1975 that haven't collapsed or been merged or bought and basically except my tax free account (which I have shared info about and described here on several occasions) I hold all the stocks I've ever bought. Angela and I own over 150 stocks in taxable accounts and retirement accounts.

I first began interacting in the mid 90's online with Berk investors stating I had $500K of both Berkshire and AJ Gallagher. Not interrupting this, now together rounding out to $30 mil or so. In the mid 90's I was by far the least financially successful in a close family of 7 first cousin men and pretty much obsessed with wanting to be a part of their world, one of business ownership and community (volunteer and financial contributions) involvement. I'm there now and just loving it. I grew up in a world view of many successful men who preached never selling a good business. It was a culture I loved slowly becoming a part of.

Hub is a fabulous business that for a short while we could own directly.

Hub got stolen from me! Probably the saddest day in my investing life. Actually, without a single doubt, the saddest day of my investing life. Other than that I know nothing today about Hub.

I have three tiny China investments and all are what I have decided are excellent business. They are incredibly (seemingly) "cheap" and all sell for far-far less than in the past. Two are constantly under government supervisions and regulation change which at times repeatedly wipes out the ongoing thus past business model. That said I do tend to laugh at myself, almost hysterically, in thinking that I as an American citizen actually "own" a part of something in China. That concept is in my view a stretch even for Chinese citizens much less American. One of the things we may consider is the ability we tend to share, that's the tendency or potential to speak and write publicly repeatedly thus ingraining illogical concepts.

So at our weekly centuries old house porch sitting Sunday which was enlarged by a birthday party my brother-in-law/cousin (adoption not incest) business partner, not even looking at me, jawbones me with, "Hammerhead (that's his name for me)....you got cha some Navidia?" And immediately adds, "DAMN that stock has tripled for me....of course I ain't got much of it." As a guy (that's me) who both is almost 50% insurance brokers and the one who put his (my bro in laws) entire 401K into BRO I surrounded and conquered the amicable bastard with, "Dude....tally what you've made since buying that techie puppy with your gains from Brown and Brown." He leans his head over sideways and backwards giving me the 'you win asshole' look and responds, "Made more money with that stock that nobody knows or cares a damn thing about...." And so it goes. He has a damn BOAT LOAD of BRO. So do I! Go Florida. Gotta end somehow though. This insurance cycle is crazy. Stocks like BRO messing about - stocks that nobody knows or cares about while thay all talk Navidia and and we discuss Fairfax.

I don't have Parsad's type clarity or confidence - or his all around skill - so I settle in with an old man's method. But by dang, reading Parsad has made me one hell of a lot of money. As I often write, this is a great forum. I mostly follow three posters, Greg, Spek, and Parsad. My mental energy can't get too far before wearing plum out. But this is enough for me and I just love it.

Having no settle up date nor fear of time based lower stock quotes is the privilege and/or the decision of a very few. It is somewhat liberating to be "I simply want to be in this business" focused rather having your mind racing through an endless array of complex variables- most of which the batting average to correctly predict is just awful. To me, at least from my 50 year investment perspective, the investment model that demands predicting things like recessions laced with the gotta-beat-the-market mindset slide in a heavy burden on investors, and basically all fail in attempting both. But again I'm admittedly a long-long-long way off in my own little wonderland of total concentration towards a model of guaranteed not failing rather than beating someone. Back in 2009, about March 9th or whatever, my next door neighbor who had lost her husband to cancer came over in near emotional collapse mode asking, "Charlie...have I lost my dead husbands hard earned money and his life insurance by not selling?" I replied, "Are you selling the trucking company?" She responded, "Hell no! He'd come back and haunt me!" She and her sister-in-law own a long-long-long lived multi-generational private trucking co in High Point, NC. I said back to her, "Angela (that's her name...same as my wife's) I just participate; I don't predict." We went from 125 employees in the builders supply down to 22 part time back then. Last year, with 30-some employees we made many multiple times the money we made with 125 employees pre financial crisis during a early 2000's housing boom. We've made multiples times that earlier period for 5 years in a row. Business. Business is fun and honestly not too hard to figure out in most cases. Economic cycles and stock prices? Not my thing.

coffeecaninvestor I am reasonably cautious as to making a statement on that even given that there are new entrants (relatively new anyway) such as RYAN, Baldwin (BRP), and Goosehead that have obviously attained some success. I did for a short time have a small investment in BRP, but sold and am not following it. I do not follow these three just listed though so you'll have to read here (past posts) as to those and our posters views- views I'd give positive credit too for sure. longterminvestor, spekulatius, and gfp...I'd read their stuff if you haven't. Some time ago Fairfax's (they owned 40%) even listed on the NYSE for a short time. That was the most successful shorter term investment I've ever made - unfortunately Fairfax/Prem decided to sell it - so yes your statement and question above has merit. As longterminvestor mentioned on RYAN....well, there are opportunities. That's why I occasionally post - keeping this thread alive should be a profitable endeavor with little long term risk of capital loss. So we should occasionally come aboard here to mention things, and of course that's what I'm trying to do. We have some quite capable posters here, some good sound investing should come of it. I just love a good business, a long term business to hold and discuss. I get attached my wife says, I don't like to let go. She says I have not only "relationships with people" that are meaningful, but also "relationships with things, concepts, and models" that I stay with. Rambling, good night.

Incidentally I'll add that my friend mentioned above never went to college of any sort and began working in the business at 18. Based on the numbers he let out last night I'd guess his operation is worth a minimum of $50 million via a sale to AJG.

So here goes another somewhat on topic but not specific to a stock chirping from me, so beware and tolerate...or not. Last night my bright ass decided that we'd go by boat to my insurance agency owner friends house to have dinner. This is a 8-ish mile boat trek which is hampered by the fact that my wife has just gotten a second bunion surgery. Let me tell you something, these bunion surgeries are painful and long-recovery things. Life sort of gets shut down for someone well over 50 who had one of these operations and they need assistance. Logistical clear thinking and some work got us successfully boating there and we had a great time. Then just as we re-mounted the boat to go home all living hell broke out with winds and thunderstorms. Warm water and being able to go slow and stay close to shore (an easy swim should we sink- being silly but you know there's always the chance) made it somewhat humorously stressful to spend the hour plus of time on the journey. We made it home and I got her into the house engaging one wet slippery place after another. We get this boat (we have a few) into the covered (normally dry but not last night with horizontal rain) with ease without having to get out to do anything...so that part worked well. But slippery and bunion work are't compatible at all. But anyway the conversation, laced with $100 bottles of wine (I'm a light drinker but my friend isn't), got the chattin' both alive and revealing and for a while it went "business". Anyway his business is a very large (for North Carolina) insurance commission one, it is incredibly profitable (he has two multi-million dollar homes and is one of our largest local real estate owners), and he said again last night the big boys...especially AJ Gallagher...come calling every week. He says they come disguised at times...no not in some Trojan Horse manner of evil, but in forms of "come on dude...we're gunna give you so much money you don't know what to do with it all." Anyway, I'm just telling you guys that this business, the one we too can invest in, continues to be slam-damn wonderful. Makes me endlessly wonder, and we discussed this last night, when it is going to end! When's Amazon "your profit is my gain" gunna come? My friend says he runs that issure through his mind all the time, yet he still thinks nothing is anywhere close to ruining this gravy train. My guess is there will be something fairly soon (a year or two) that interrupts both the insurance pricing upturn and the stock prices too of the publicly traded US brokers. To me, for those not here yet, it will probably be a wonderful buying opportunity if, and only if, history repeats itself. My guess is history will repeat itself! Generalized thinking such as this isn't much credited with being significant as to making money investing. We go into great detail often and my past is literally full of massive invasive accounting projects that I did to determine investment potential. Over time I moved on some from this, I saw far too many others making hay without huge amounts of work or analysis. And I got my lifelong biggest eye-opening realizing that selling too soon was the typical investors worst mistake particularly if made on a basis of "the PE is 25....oh boy gotta run for the hills" and such. So I'm just slobbering around on a topic here, but it is one to keep on the shelf for use at some point for some of you. No spell check here, I'm conversationally rambling.

Hey Ralf...just remembering that I read your earlier message while moving Pax into an apartment just north on hwy 49 of the Charlotte campus, he's beginning graduate school in architecture. On a mission of 24/7 assistance right now as bunion surgery has me in the help mode full time all day LOL. Oh lordy. Lexington BBQ is goooooood stuff.

Being a month from 70 I am physically active and capable. But age is more than a number and I'm constantly grinding through health issues as are most at my age. I have no suggestions for others dealing with aging other than Mungers "soldier on" without complaint. And maybe be thankful for today's medical technology.

PayPal?

Yep.

When Spek was chanting up a couple of the defense stocks RTX and LHX I bought them at what seemed good values (why Spek was there), the prices fell some and it was rational to buy more...and now the prices are up 20% or so. But from my experience I'd never chase up a defense name based on projected spending as to current/future ongoing or potential conflicts. I already owned the other names and had added to GD a tad but I have no interest in adding based on expected increases in military spending. I've seen this theme switch directions too many times.

The unflattering truth is that while I've owned the brokers except for BRP and RYAN since 1994 I've only added to BRO and WTW since then and that proves I'm not in any way a good caller on these thus far delightful businesses. I just keep thinking - for instance - that BRO is expensive, and it never turns out that way, and 41% of my net worth as to stocks is my AJG shares so I'm not going to buy more. I did influence my investment club to buy AJG at $36 or so in 2015 (or whenever it dropped...and was selling for 15x with a 3.8% div), but personally didn't buy more. I did buy AJG for my wife's parents trust recently at $185 and sometime in the early 2000's period my brother-in-law asked me to "manage" $800,000k of his stuff and I impulsively told him to put it all into BRO---- which he did! That was a home run for him, but it wasn't some well-thought out analysis from me and he has so much money he doesn't know what to do with it so I wasn't at all worried that he would get hurt making a large commitment there and I figured at worst it would do pretty good.