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And Trump does what Trump does, there's 55 plus years of it laid open for view. He creates total chaos, his tag along's elope into some bizarre claims of success while others gape at what is complete failure, failure, and more failure. Trump sneaks in his paychecks, one after another, always plain out in the open corruption. 2nd grade special needs kids can make that determination but the tag along's choose not to. Why? You got it! Trump looks the part. He's got the John Wayne thing. It takes 1 and 1/2 hours of makeup, hair preparation, and massive body enhancements within the black suit, but we get there. Different voices, unique childlike facial expressions, it all sells and sells to the tag along crowd. All these years for Trump and there's no legitimate business for his "wealth" only scam bezel fake shit. Yet it works, and works, and works, the more stretch his followers do to legitimize - the more committed they are to believe. Bookmark this if you are young because this is the craziest garbage you will ever see in your lifetime. The next person who tries this shit won't have success such as this. Trump owns the world...for now. My extended family of businessmen, some fabulously wealthy remind me that I'm not coming up with the main theme that allows all this to happen. They tell me it is fear, that no matter how much wealth or power anyone has today they all fall in line with this fruitcake goofball because of fear.

For simple clarification:

Rapid rate increases, long length of time rate increases, and expanding broker stock PE multiples - while the "how long" isn't known...these guarantee other side-of-the-mountain outcomes. Wasn't intrinsic value actually being pressured downwards by sure-to-be-reversed or stagnated rate escalation - unsustainable rate increases? When the stock price of AJG for instance was getting higher and higher PE multiples...wasn't the future obvious - but timeline unknown? Stock prices Intrinsic value growth Rate cycle I think the three above move separately, not in unison. Isn't the best time to invest in times of violent rate decline times, when stock prices have been clobbered? It seems to me the progress of the business is much more steady than rates or stock prices. The business is emotionally stable; rates are "party late" and "sleep in" by nature; and stock prices are clearly manic depressive. Time of change for the three? Somewhat unknown, but the past is likely to give guidance. We also have AI affecting likely all three of the above, or at least it eventually will. I label this 100% unknown as to its affect.

I like Greg, Reds, and Pupil's comments on this subject. The size of every investment for me is determined by how I will feel and respond given a 50 percent or more decline in price quote...on a situation or news I may be uncomfortable with.

Those who like or use Trump for their gains whether real or not are going to claim massive success- total success- no matter the outcome. This is the way it works. So yes the win is possible; Trump always wins with some. Given Trump's age and his short life span to come it won't be long until those proclaiming his success are invisible and ignored. New politicians are soon to rock the world of the US of A.

I think Trump gears others into fantasy. What's the probability of this wild success in Iran, all the change hoped for? Of all people, what in the world makes us think of all people that Donald Trump can orchestrate anything like this? Donald is always a net negative for others; he's always scrapes a paycheck for failed endeavors. He's done it consistently for 55 years. Trump is running away from accountability and he will succeed at this, he always does. Do the rest of us gain from what he does? There's increasingly more stuff that Don needs to distract us from. His actions are going to be many, trivial, off topic, but all will gain huge media. Trump looks increasingly unhealthy and frail. My guess is this will orchestrate some crazy shit.

These are superb to watch. Trump just found another napping spot, a costly one given the 40 auto motorcade.

LOL, I think it just means lengthy chaos!

Wherever it goes and when it goes is unknown. What's 99.99999999999% certain is that there will be a fire in the theater when every investor in the world will be trying to get out fast at any price. PE multiples are the most irrelevant measure of bubbles, they are meaningless. Yet the successful "sell" today focuses on them to make the sustainable case. That said, I don't think we are near the top yet, gotta have some more fun first.

Yesterday Angela and I went down the road a bit and toured Aberdeen Carolina and Western Railway. This business is one for the fantasy of anyone who can fathom a man buying something that had 800 carloads a year and taking it to 16,000 car loads a year. Then on top of that he's created an entertainment division... The day absolutely blew my mind as it relates to business. This type of thing is precisely what my family has tried to do, successfully but not nearly as successfully as this guy. The big rails have taken the easy route, just cut-cut-and cut some more and plug in financial gimmickry to make the CEO bonus...and then retire to hand it to the next smart manipulative cookie. All with stagnant sales and carloads. If nothing else? It is called boring, boring, and more boring. Sales people...where are the sales big boys? The model that works: https://www.acwr.com/

When AJ Gallagher was near $350 a share it represented 42% of my net worth as to publicly traded securities. It now is going for $210. I can sit here as I type and try my best to be upset about this, but honestly it doesn't seem to gain traction. The business of AJ Gallagher? Performing pretty much as I expected. My best guess given 50 years experience? That the real threat is to some other entity I own the stock of...I'm just not smart enough to know what that situation is.

I guess I found where this discussion briefly has gone to be annoying, particularly given the sophistication of so many here. Waves of interest come and go as to what's the latest obsession, and Prem Watsa and Fairfax can be one of those in focus from time to time. As Buffett recently said, "This is nothing." The stock price of Fairfax has barely moved anywhere excessive or important, or meaningfully anywhere. Investors are obsessed with AI, a stock like Fairfax is a big zero to all but a tiny-tiny-tiny few. I can't imagine the "concern" when, and it surely will, the stock moves yet again with gusto one direction or another- a certainty in time. Did you actually lose money/permanent capital loss style when it "fell" in price recently or is it more accurate to say "you've lost your mind" to be hyper-focused on an over time non-event?

Along with many other experiences and things as related to Fairfax I have the book that Viking sent me. I look at that book every single day as it sits on my shelf. Those things solidify my decision to yawn about today's stock price.

Decades ago when I was a Fairfax shareholder I thought that the stock would never get much above 1.5 times book value. I was trained as an insurance and bank stock analyst and that training was substantial and included valuations of the past and expected future. Fairfax quickly went to 4 times book value. Fact.

I thoroughly enjoy inve sting discussions with you Reds. You are (as usual ;-)) challenging...but in a good way. The issue for me always is that I am not good at writing what I mean to deliver. I'm terrible at it as a matter of fact, so it becomes too much work at times. LOL.

Bank of A reads 14.7% since 2011 when we moved it to them, that's not including contributions. I really have no idea what returns we got prior to that.

I am the culprit! Yes there was a reason in my head for the purchases. So basically I never invested with the goal of outperforming anyone or the market. Throughout my life it has been "participate" in the market. And there are a lot of things in her account, an account that's 40 years old, that did fabulous for years but have of course somewhat- but not entirely- stagnated in the last 10 maybe even more years. The main thing is getting 11-12% Is likely in the top percentiles for any investor and we did it with her account with very little effort or administration time. Angela had minimal expectations. She has been literally flabbergasted at how much money the account has in it. And that's the "don't you dare" from her as to this, it has worked so leave it alone. She is a brilliant thinker - on the spectrum with all the traits that come with that - change is not wanted from her, she's never comfortable with changes. I think you can grasp that!

OK Reds...here's the part that you will easily understand but may not have thought about. She is by numbers of stocks "diversified" of course. But as to value? She's not much diversified at all. That's because she has several stocks that have MASSIVE appreciation. I could list a few, but you already basically know which ones they are.

I spent years long ago preparing my wife for investing vs fear/greed "getting out" and "not going down" thinking. I'm quite proud of her. She has over 150 stocks and has never sold a single one...and won't let me sell a single one under any circumstances. She has a slew of stock symbols that she doesn't even know what co's they represent. Her return has been about 11-12% and that's unbelievable in the long term Angela looks at her account a few times a year typically, but some years she doesn't look at the balance ever...not once the entire year. Angela reads about 80 books a year and runs book festivals, that's her focus. Now THAT holding period for her is investing!

I give credit to thinking unlike my own particularly to someone like Sanjeev who has skills that I do not...although I have successfully experimented with his suggestions in my retirement account LOL. Over decades it worked like this for me. Parents died when I was young so I watched the old guys, particularly the guys in my investment club. So many of them lived healthily until their mid 80's. None, that's zero, of them "sold out" or "cashed in" to "make it" out of this world. They all were businessmen but they all made most of their wealth by owning stocks over decades. They all died with many millions. Contrast that the the come-and-go whippersnappers who had shorter term visitations being members of our investment club. This bunch was high strung, the in-and-outers who knew more than the rest of us, timing was their game and "concern" for the times was their focus. Lots of wealth, and I mean a LOT OF WEALTH, was handed down from the old "hold" guys. Never knew any of the come-and-go members whose children or wives...or whoever was part of their family...ever in any way projected any wealth accumulation. My wife's parents were quite philanthropic to her during her father's lifetime. He tried to control the family with his money, but he quickly realized with me that wasn't gunna fly. When he died? The SOB who attempted to control with his gifts- and of course suggestion on how we lived and voted- had "invested" in short term CD's and annuities...and he had a pension. What did he leave his wife? What passes down to my wife and on down from him? About $400k and a house. If you want to build wealth you better be in business...that's called stocks.

At less than 30 days I'll be 72. I don't understand the obsession as to current stock price. Are you planning to spend all your retirement funds on one day, one year, or five? Do you feel equally concerned when your home becomes completely unsellable...they all do for lengthy periods don't they? My home would bring 2 mil today. Three times in my life I don't think I could have given it away. Do you put a value on your investments or does the market do that for you? Do you understand yourself enough to know what percentage you can put into a stock and not act irrationally with price gyrations?

Trump lovers over-state his ability and success and Trump haters over-state his ability and success. The man is uncontested in his dragging otherwise decent and wise human beings into supporting his distraction, waste, and colossal failure for his projects that include others - all while grinding out media domination and scam based personal financial gains. The man is unstoppable. But beware because there is a point in all his endeavors where Trump wisely realizes there's no positive out for the projects, that his best avenue is to milk his the situation for all he can - and move on. His age, the position, the incredible power and control we've chosen to lay with him will make the next 2-3 years exciting. The evolving obvious will be that others, even family, are not his obsession. Trump is obsessed about himself, getting revenge and screwing everyone else. You will also see the most incredible effort of those who also mislead and scam to line up and get what they can while they can. The chaos will be fun to watch and I'll be on the front row. I have enjoyed watching this stuff from him for decades. The most crazy thing of all is that so-called conservatives think Trump stands for them. I think Trump intends to put as much harm on the Republican party as he possibly can. Why? Because Trump loathes the idea that someone else will be the power of the future, that literally drives this man to insanity.

Xerxes my post was meant, or would have sounded in speech, to be of pretty low intensity.

Come on Greg! Plug ya some "DE" into yer forecasts for you own fav investments and have some fun with Flatt economics. It sells and sells, and... Oh my ---- this morning I'm doing my yoga - so I can actually walk one month pre 72 years of age - and there's Michael Saylor! The man puts all financial history to shame and not in a small way. Here goes his dead serious (Does this man have the macho studmuffin man look or what???!!!): Bitcoin is going to $21 million. Bitcoin is going up 30% a year. With Michael's stock MicroStrategy get yersef some 11% annual yield PLUS the assured path of Bitcoin going to $21 million. The power meters are going to spin, spin, and spin. Then we have SpaceX public offerin'! And we know the AI build-out is decades from its end...although we aren't sure if there will be a return on all the spending...or whatever. To hell with trying to determine "profit" cause "profit" ain't part of the formula. And we are trying to discuss JOE, MSGS/MSGE, Fairfax, insurance brokers, etc? If Bitcoin is going to be worth more than the entire stock market and SpaceX can attain a $50 trillion capitalization (of course the "Elon Way" with no profits ever considered)? What the hell? Is the seeking of entities with business profit no longer relevant to building wealth as Elon/Saylor have so successfully transformed us to believe? And if FASB "earnings" are as irrelevant as Bruce Flatt says...well then... I must admit, Trump's endless scams (A friend just sent me a list of 21 Trump scams where he's directly targeted the groups that vote for him) are nothing but small time entertainment!