dealraker

The problem with the Morningstar figures is that it isn't the average investor return. It is sort of like: "Everybody jumped into the river and this is how long it took to get to the take out." While ommitting that, "Oh...and two-thirds of the swimmers drowned."

So then, is "spend it all now" a good thing over time for the US of A? Or more logically, the source of boom and bust! LOL.

By the way, if you think my comments about short term/long term investor percentages are off - let me suggest some easy-to-see facts: Go to Manlobbi's Berkshire forum board, or the old MF one, and see the posts...then the number of "likes" and such, the followup posts for instance. A 20 person "like" is big time. Some sound investors there, little action and a few followers. Go to Saul's Investing Discussions and see his fast Eddie hyper-portfolio turnover approach, and I assure you the portfolio turnovers are vast - and I'll also assure that most who are investing in this manner are losing massive amounts of their capital (their own questionaires prove that). Likes to posts? Saul will get 20,000 views and 1,200 "likes" for his posts. Most recent was a large investment in Enphase...then a huge commitment in Cloudflare, which I am certain was followed by his huge cult...a cult that had already gotten slaughtered. A fisherman entered the tackle shop, sees an 8-hook 8-color lure...and asks the clerk, "Does this thing catch fish?" Clerk replied, "Mister, I don't sell to fish."

These type comments as to lack of incentive and that education will solve the problem are the norm but I'm not in the camp of believing them so much. Human beings are complex and I am absolutely certain that a huge percentage simply can not perceive the longer run, saving for a rainy day is not within their model or culture, and so forth. To some degree this lack of future focus or thinking has some very rational parts to it, at least through history it did. The more settled and civilized the setting then there's more reason to live thinking longer term. But it is a culture and developed model in my view, not some inate human characteristic. I'm not talking about seasonal survival which surely was part of every culture, but years down the road thinking and planning. I think you could have a conversation with many who are not planning well for the future and that conversation would be logical and you'd think "They get it...so why aren't they...?" But to me human nature is for many to be impulsive, to want, to be active (and that includes going out or online to spend)...to simply do things. Those you just had a logical conversation with? They are likely not going to save money, or if they do they'll go invest for what's hot until it's not--- generally doing very poorly. I have been interacting online for years and years now and I'll simply say that I have found about 25 people (most here) out of many thousands who actually buy stocks for the long run. Yep, that's what I've found. It seems most financial types online not only trade fast they all state they outperform the market which I guess could be true but it seems research says you got about a 5% change of that. Financial types who save, according to what I've read, underperform the mutual funds they invest in by huge amounts on an annual basis which compounds into something unbelievably awful on a long term basis. In and out....action! BEAT THE MARKET the brochure or tv commercial says -- is the mandate. Not sure, at least to me, that there's alot of difference between the online obsession of beating the market short term (and SURELY posting about it) and what we are discussing here...that people are not planning in a logical manner for the future. To me it is all human nature, that delayed gratification is simply impossible for many, maybe most of human beings. Again, back when the average life was 40 year then why delay anything? For me, I'm sort of a right brain global thinking type, the obsession beginning in high school was to build net worth. I saw that as freedom, not power (I could care less about controlling others- that's the politician mindset), and I wanted a whole damn lot of freedom. Many if not most of those I know who make big money? I never hear a word about building net worth. But to my closest friends and family this is an absolute obsession. Just rambling. Please don't take me too seriously.

Luca, management mentions that Chinese government officials deem the businesses unfair, that they take advantage of the customer. There is or has been also somewhat of a mention of competitor complaints? Fanhua went to pretty much an online model and initially it seemed very successful.

I have a tiny bit of China stuff, I think just to see how silly it all is. My history with investing there began somewhat recently - ten years ago or so - when I bought an insurance broker called Fanhua (the name changed to Fanhua). The stock market cap was the same as cash and the company earned 15% on equity with no debt. Instant 3 bagger and then... The Chinese gov literally shut down the property and casualty broker business lines Fanhua engaged in. So Fanhua completely changed its operations to go into life insurance lines...which also - of course - shortly got the boot. In the end the business is simply - as they say - uninvestible in my view. While I still have a tad in China stuff it is just a distraction and I'm considering selling.

Wanted badly to sell AMZN today, but there's just one problem...I don't own Amazon. So... Sold MSFT today. Had bought this stock in the later Balmer years when the business was doing fine but not the stock. I think the PE was 12 when we bought the stock, it was investor depression all around. I'll bet that within 5 years MSFT will carry a PE of 15 or less. Yep, that's my view. I know-I know, the belief is that the cloud hyper-growth is now and forevermore. Isn't it always that way for some segments? Buying some land across the road from our lakehouse with these sales. The reason mostly is to thwart a housing development but also to enlarge what we already own which has 2 miles of trails on it. Several in the neighborhood with our permission walk there with us. The land is just south of this/these track(s) which is/are also for sale: https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/857-Fisher-Farm-Rd-Lexington-NC/26595834/

I was amazed at how far PepsiCo fell in 2009. Wasn't at all fearful nor willing/able to add (I had little cash on hand), just amazed what happened to the price of such a dominant business.

Spooky, parents dead early in my life and this was in a trust. I was in my teens and the trust accessible when I turned 30. By then I was distracted and busy... ...and it is now 48 years later. So there was no imput from me except lack of action. Here though is what you might find both helpful and insightful: After exiting the insurance business I mostly built houses (52 of them) and some fast food restaurants. But for a short time I was an exec. vp head of investment services of LSB Bankshares based in Lexington NC (since merged), as they needed me and I had all the credentials to get it started for them. So what I'm alluding to is that I am, or in the past was, out-and-about as to business and investing. And that leads me to say with what I'd call a rational guess... So I know very few who didn't at one time or another buy Pepsi, as Pepsi was often the conversation of those discussing investments for years. But I'll bet you some serious cash that most, the great majority, have sold their stock--- or did not keep it for long. I do remember people discussing selling it as well. It is just a part of my biased ramble here on COBF that stocks can actually be kept for the long run and not just bought and sold. When a business like Pepsi gets to 22-23 times earnings? To me it isn't over-priced at all, not even close.

Inherited a tiny bit of PepsiCo or whatever LOL the hell it was called in 1975. It's been "YUM(my)" along the way. To make a long story short, the geniuses in my investment club decided to sell Pepsi (this is just before the spin off of the Tricon stuff) and buy the hypergrowth Worldcom which of course was run by a former pro wrestler Ebbers...quite the "man" of macho business of the time. I was the 1 of 25 "no" vote. They rubbed it (with good nature) in my face for a short time. But...humble little me just held fast with my slow-mo Pepsi/YUM stocks. The long story here is that the tiny-tiny-tiny-tiny bit of Pepsi I inherited? If it was the only stock I owned I could feel comfortable in retirement with it. Yep, just this one stock...and of course the hyper-successful spin-offs. All while we must buy/sell Ben Graham style to "beat the market" and as I've been told on COBF "you'd have done better buying zero coupons" or whatnot. All is fine I guess, but that's the wrong world someone is speaking of, one I don't live within. The investment club, after the tech blow ups of the early 2000's including Worldcom going to zero, decided (forced me to be) to elect me president of the club again. They did that twice through the 40 years I was in the club, both times when their obsessions sent the club portfolio to living hell. Life is great...if you can stand it. Now they (the club) are all over the place with "value" investing and land purchases (leasing mining rights). I'm trying to exit the club these days, the young guys are flying high! Morning ramble. The Pepsi/YUM thingy is worth double digit times what it was when the club sold it to go to zero with Wroldcom. These things? Well, they do actually count in the long run.

I bought a tad of 30 year 15% treasury bonds back in 1981. I need a magnifying glass to find the t-bill yields today.

For what it's worth, as mentioned previously the other stock I'd sold was Auto Nation.

Yes.

dealraker's ruining the buy-and-hold model today: Sold the last shares of Old Dominion Freight LInes Sold Enphase Sold First Solar

Interesting choices of what to put in vs leave out. I'll degress from this topic as I've found that anything remotely related to Hunter Harrison and Brookfield's Bruce Flatt doesn't work for debating. Don't take my response personally, I'm just reading different facts.

To Japan? $20-some thousand gets the door open. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/17/realestate/japan-empty-houses.html

The unanimous view on Amazon and AWS as evidenced by the current stock price. We will see!

For your entertainment Spek, Amazon is my "20 year" stock. 20 years later it will sell for less than a former high point. Is it this go-round? It really all depends on when investors as a whole begin to put the normal or traditional valuation model into effect.

When we were all the same race, religion, with no gender changes...Scotland and England for centuries... we got along beautifully, didn't we? Don't worry, if we aren't at war with somebody else we'll be at war with one-another. Let's kick 'em all out and get down to one race, all extreme Christians, and for God's sake no gender options/changes...and just watch bloody outcome. Life is great...if you can stand it! Rupert was a ****ing genius!

So my interest in this topic may be off-topic but given we are small investors and those fearing lower quotes are out-and-about on other threads stating bargains are being bought... In the last couple or few months I have in typically slow pattern put 2/3rds of a $500k trust that we are assigned to manage into stuff, the averaged prices: Berkshire B $300; Lowe's $180; AJ Gallager $185; Meta $150; Google $95; XLE $80...these seem at least to me to be likely to equal bond performace at what was the comparison when bought. And each time the market falls the postings as to bad outcomes gets stronger. Is it rational for small investors to obsess over general market prices? I don't do bonds, somehow survived not doing so. Whoops: Markel $1215 and got close on some of those US railroads run by CEO's that make some really questionable decisions.

Harry will get some CNBC time as soon as we get a downturn in prices. Harvard number 2 in his class...and this is what came of it!

Once the best selling market predictor ever, yet again Harry is making his case...which in my view is as relevant and likely as any: https://news.bitcoin.com/economist-harry-dent-expects-biggest-crash-in-our-lifetime-to-hit-between-now-and-mid-june/

A tad of long term humor to go along with today's concerns. Jan 10, 1975 dad dies, mom died years earlier. I get a trust accessible at 30 years old, I'm in my teens. 13 stocks! Chaos rules the world and most of them worth less over a decade later when I had access to the trust. Along the way some got bought, one went to zero, and new stuff arrived out of some of them. But none of them in 1975 exceeded $5,000 in market value. The thing is I didn't volunteeringly sell anything ever, I was either too young (for over a decade) or too fearful and/or busy to sell. Today just one of the stocks, yep just one, went up more in value than the total value of them all in Jan 1975. LOL.

Hey John...the August/September 2011 panic out of stocks was one I remember very well. It even almost, but not quite, got some of my otherwise very solid family members. But it wiped clean the equity stakes of many I know... ...right at the dead bottom! Stocks, expecially according to the younger guy in my investment club, were to be avoided at any cost. We had some 1 vote victories to keep stocks like Lowe's. It was a very close call with cut-and-run. Years of fear dominated from March 9th 2009 and the only thing that got the conversation changed was the lust for Bitcoin. Not that family members or club members did much biting on the bit, it was just the Bitcoin story was so fascinating that these people forgot they were supposed to be in panic mode! But a full decade of horrors and fears conversation with those making ten times their fear stating point would in most cases get people to stop talking about it. But not this bunch. Of course fears seem far more rational today. The problem is simply that that's always the case. Sell before May...they say!