dealraker

+1 I think he is a master talent at getting from point A to point B. It would be grand for America if he wasn't so needy of media attention.

+1

Plus - plus with a glass of wine effect evidently.

÷1

Agree. Got involved locally beginning in 1994 and say unequivicolly the most task related rewarding part of my life.

I'll close my posts here by simply stating that there is a stunning connection of who is the Richest with who is the dominant genius. Oh these stock prices do have their say! That fossil Buffett with his outdated words, something about mental and emotional stability. How silly is that, we all want political and societal eruption these days...(just dont cut my benefits or guv revs and tax credits).

Of course I'm being a tad facetious here guys, but I've witnessed so many of this same discussion so many times about so many men... I can't help but chat it up some. Time after time if you and I live a while there will be many more. People forget, they are simply not capable of meaningful comparison (I'm not either), we just live in the moment. Opinions will be endless.

Nah, Jobs was the real thing.

Above all it is blisteringly clear to me, whether tech, innovation, politics...it simply does not matter. But we are absorbed by the cult of personalities and abrasive always gains followers best. The personal/interactive nature of distancing connections via social media has pole vaulted this theme. Add to this the effect of a successfully promoted, thus years ahead of itself stock price and you have something very easy to predict, all 7 of Cialdini's persuasions at work in lollapalooza style...a real life authority hero.

Could absolute not disagree more intensely. Musk is in the moment...next guy will be even more so.

Elon's gunslinger "disruptive" personality is hugely attractive to many and magnifies his presence everywhere. Over the years though all this is absolutely forgotten or never even known as the next round of achievers and/or those needing/succeeding at gaining attention blanket the last bunch. Elon's thus far achievements will seem rediculously minimal.

Somebody is in process of leapfrogging both these guys. We just don't know it yet.

Probably the most over-rated entrepreneur. Also more groundbreaking is his skills of getting US guv funding and tax credits.

The one metric OR stopped providing returns for shareholders long ago. Berk's use of capital may or may not make a difference, time will tell. The game though is well past cutting employees, cutting lines, cutting cap ex, cutting maintenance,, cutting yards, and using debt for buybacks. The math on minimal sales growth gets downright exciting from here.

Basically UK I observed and participated with virtually all the rail Co's changes for over 40 years and one since 1976. Improved operations and vastly better financial performance has intermittently surged within all rails for years - even decades - before HH. My view is that if profitability is pushed too hard and too fast there is near equal repercussions that take years process through... its happening now. So over a the next few years in my view is that UNP's supposed efficiency gains over BNSF will prove nothing but a short term breakaway easily caught up with. Railroads that cut investments and too many workers to pump quarterly numbers via buybacks like UNP are like spun-out solo cyclists being bore down on by the pellaton. Thus the last mile of much of the HH model in my view is or was just dysfunctional whitewash, needless one step forward two steps back, quick profits for selling shareholders at the expense of loyal ones. It is the exact same thing in the insurance brokerage business and that's why all of them model overall growth over simply obsession with operating margin.

We plan to see Eilean Donan on our next trip when we go to the Isle of Skye, it looks fantastic in the photos we see.

Been in Scotland with Angela for a while, will return home Oct 16. Making a small circle from Edinburgh, Ft. William, Ballater, then Arbroath. We day hike focusing on history, remote vistas, book stores, then hit the pub to talk about it with locals. Long ago now I was with you younger guys doing fairly extreme athletic skill type trips, fitness was my obsession. At 70 I now have Waldenstrom lymphoma, a more-than-50% blocked left anterior descending artery, and slow growing prostate cancer. But other than that... Life is great...if you can stand it. Having a great time in Scotland.

longterminvestor the thing I mostly get from the short clip in the video is the same as I've gotten in my 37 years of being in this business - 30 as a publicly traded shareholder. Investors touch-and-go on it, but don't stick around much, there's too much more mentally stimulating stuff for highly intelligent people needing challenges to investigate. Along the same lines it is a normal discussion in the insurance business to say, "Well if you can't compete here you can always go sell."

UK, anything you write is fair, I've seen it for a long time. The answer begins with...it wasn't too long ago that we had a family member die and I was the person chosen to handle the trust. I posted about that....that I bought some AJG (this wasn't long ago) at $185 per share. I put more though into Berkshire. Someone asked me on this forum why I didn't put more into AJG vs Berk and I rambled some crazy response, but it was of course very likely a poor decision not to buy more AJG. But price and time, and industry conditions, have changed. Today I'd not invest in AJG at this valuation level. Would this investment if done today likey outperform Mr. Market, the question most ask that I never consider? Probably. I'd wait, it seems we are somewhat too excited and happy right now as to this sector. Won't last.

As the Allman Brothers, Dickie Betts actually, sang, "I was born a rambling man." To me these right brained ramblings are often the most thoughtful (especially when it isn't me writing) and productive parts of a forum. If you think I discount too heavily the data and detailed posts, ones such as Spekulatis often puts up, that's not at all correct- I view his posts highly. But general thinking is very productive especially when you plug in probability in a sane manner. But in the end, at some point, you have to "man-up" (read being silly) and ante up a stock outlay to benefit from whatever you understand...or maybe accept that you only partially understand it...and this is to me what you have to accept in the insurance business - that you really do not have the capability to wrap it up entirely. It is a sector where you play the odds, and in my view that's exactly what Warren Buffett has done his entire life better than others. Buffett quotes, I think but am not sure that John Train put them in The Midas Touch: "The insurance brokerage business is a toll booth on the world economy....we made a mistake going in to underwriting...the brokerage side is a better business." Most of you are of course already aware of those words. As I've previously written I got into the brokers in 1994. I was incredibly lucky to have connections with my constant friend, a guy named Mark Breeden, from Lexington, NC. Mark was 5-6 years younger, he's 64, than me, but he too was a tennis player. Today he owns what is likely a near 100 mil business, a guy who went to work - not college - at 18. But oh what a businessman he is. And......here's the important part at least from me: I got, and get, to watch him and his business! And one of the reasons I've not sold my insurance brokers is because of this view of Breeden Insurance, its phenomenal growth and profitability. So the stock analyst says "this broker is a buy today"...and "it is sell at this price." And I reply, "Mark didn't sell, so I'm not selling." 100 baggers later who has won? The analyst isn't going to tell you, he's off recommending something else.. But Roby Leonard, the seemingly always "old simple minded" man in my investment club who gave away millions in his life after investing from his small snack food business's, once told me: "Charlie, you can't make up with new ideas the loss you get from selling a good business." Roby understood the investment process, his question to me often was so stupidly simple: "Is this a good stock to buy?" Lord help us...oh my! So in 1994 when I got into the builders supply business and Jerry asked that I be a part of the investment (we'd sold 4 builders supply businesses and kept one and bought a mill work business) committee. We bought Brown and Brown at that meeting from my recommendation. Basically we do not sell stocks from this portfolio as we always have more money coming in than going out. We did convert to supchapter s along the way as our portfolio is insanely too large for a business of this type. My family, the other owners, have been impressed LOL. And then the story I've told before, the other guy - my family - in this business asked me to "allocate" 800k of his retirement account (he's older than me by 7 years) at some point along the way. Brown and Brown (might still have been Poe and Brown then) was trading reasonable while it seemed to me the market wasn't, so I said, "The probability of losing or doing poorly if you put it all in BRO is so low I don't think it registers Steve---- so I'd put it all in Brown and Brown." He did. 100% probability the brokers will sell off to historically at least average prices. My guess is it won't be too long a wait for this. A good question to ask yourself is whether you'll be willing to invest given the industry chant at that time - which likely will be less positive than today. I was born a rambling man obviously.

And this last sentence from UK says it all. The conversation we've had here, both as to understanding the business and wondering as I do constantly why disruption hasn't arrived, would be the same if we had this discussion 30 years ago. Since this nearly 2 year old topic was introduced the brokers are up in price, some more than 40%. They are too expensive to buy of course, or the ones that may not be aren't the good performers. I had added WTW and BRP (now BWIN) a year ago or so and didn't like much about BWIN so I sold it. WTW too isn't the quality of BRO or AJG, but is too up 45% in a year or so and still not expensive vs a typical business with its growth of earnings. And of course the one I sold...BWIN? It is up about 100%. I am a great investor aren't I? The stock, of course, was and is TOO expensive! My next door neighbor, like many my age, was in to drugs and music along with a big time social focus throughout his late teens until mid 30's. He went into his dad's insurance agency business. By 40 he was actually working steady. He retired in his 50's and has been traveling since, and he travels everywhere without any financial concerns. His father is still living so he's doing all this lifestyle via his earnings. Ain't fair is it? As I say as to insurance investing: Generally what is...is what will be.

I think it is accurate that some investors feel protected by the likes of Bloomstran (who replaced Tilson). There are others and their message is pure homespun - playing to the childlike hopefulness and safety seeking of human nature. An example is his milking of a pretended Berkshire connection - the best selling vehicle of his selling model. Like so many successful asset gatherings of the past - the 50 page Berkshire analysis is cream of the crop to lace up those shoes. With a 5th graders logic and brain development it is beyond easy to know when to buy the stock of Berkshire. But if you make the analysis of Berk a 1000 page book? It sells you as lord protector. Of recent it was none other than Bloomstran - actually Semper - who co-led a mass of frantic obsession/buying with DG that's turned bad, really bad. My guess though is that Bloomstran had absolutely nothing to do with it all. He's too busy out-and-about selling. It's working, assets under management growing nicely. Won't last. Over time Semper will intermittently give you pre-fee performance figures if you consider that relevant.

The two were not much alike. Old Dominion and Progressive were by far the two largest in the IRA.

Yes valueseek.

Well I do own GE, as mentioned here some time ago before the split I bought. But completely unaware of Safran.