dealraker

Looks good to me!

Tropical storm Tammy is headed to the US and is near certain to be a hurricane. LOL, we are close to the end of hurricane season but it ain't locked in.

It has been my view, right or wrong, that low interest rates made home building costs meaningless given the minor addion to long term mortgages. Heck, homebuilders...why not toss in one or two Disney trips for the family if you're paying with 3% over decades...only would add $10 per month to the mortgage?! After exiting the insurance business I was a building contractor (my entire family is in building), I got my contractors license in 1982. I built 52 homes, double digit fast food restaurants, two large apartment complexes (for family), and even did concrete highway projects during the early 80's high rate era. Mr. Hyperactive, that's me, sometime to my benefit, sometimes not. But back then we used to say, "When the homebuilders/contractors are buying new trucks it is time to sell." Hell, the homebuilders/contractors have been buying new trucks, now $70,000 ones, for ten years plus. Our builders supply is R-O-C-K-I-N-G! But seems to have peaked too...here in NC. Still not enough housing though. Interesting to say the least. Recently the family had a meeting about our stocks (held in the builders supply) and I voiced my view (I'm not the one who makes the final decisions) not to add to Lowe's. The stock was selling for about $210 and some were wanting to buy more. It is a good business, very good, but to me the path is troubled now, people's obsession with houses will wane when the "it will be worth twice as much in five years" obsession in the south here has gone. So do it yourself type middle and high end gets replaced by housing for the masses? Hell, I don't know. Rambling. Greg knows better than me!

There's all kinds of benefit from being associated with Fairfax that over time add up, but are so quickly forgotten. Fairfax owned 40% of Hub, the broker, and investors in Fairfax could not have possibly been obvlivious to this although now it was long-long ago. As I remember I made 5 or so times my money, a literally HUGE initial nvestment for me, in less than three years with that business. It was sold to private money (or whatever you call it) but it was something you simply could not miss if you owned Fairfax. An insurance broker growing at 15% with a PE under 10 is literally shocking, but it was right there for all of us. I think this was in the go-go tech era, too many events for me to remember in my 69 year old brain. Hang out with the wise men, not perfect but wise, and good things show up. But you gotta be there to be aware.

Yes!!!

The decades long record for the insurance brokers is pretty phenomenal and almost completely without hero money manager participation.

While being reasonable as to your abilities and staying power I think - at least for me - part of the equation is to hang out in an investing neighborhood where you think you know something. Sold a slew of long held stocks this year, only Brookfield was in the top 10 of size though, luckily I got out of this stuff a few months before some of the recent repricing based on interest rates/expense. I've added to defense stuff, Norfolk and Parker-Hannifin, but mostly I've gone to short term treasuries. Bonds are not my language....yet! Most like won't be. Chill pill time, sort of enjoying it...the investor part anyway.

Because I read all of Spek's comments and think these are often quite astute I'd added significantly to my defense stocks recently, LHX-RTX-GE particularly. While I've made mistakes with this sort of what seemed logical general thinking before most of the time it works very well. I think the defense stocks are a solid value for those planning to hang on for a while. I've owned them all for decades, it just seemed a really good time recently to add. But distracted I was as usual until Spek brought me back in line. I recently got handed a few trusts to manage for a while and they got a solid dose of defense stocks. We will see. Wars don't always add up to what we think as to defense sales and profits.

Somehow very average types like me can simply invest money over time in a somewhat hopefully logical manner based on what thus far seems to be a successful "value/growth" model - which tends to do the mostly upwards-to-the-right on the charts...but not blast-off-to-Mars and such. We types watch the superstars come and go, fantastic years and terrible ones, but the theme is incredibly consistent and that is if you have a good year or good period then anything you say is sucked up my all the fast go-go types as world truths. Do you guys ever think a man like Dalio can't help himself and he just says in what I'd call "make-it-up" mode really crazy, maybe even stupid stuff, just to see how well it circulates? All people, especially men, seek status, tell stories, and above all we imitate.

Being silly MMM20. Nothing more.

Stock of apparent great future returns seem to wait on the end of melodramatic forum posts? Or is that just my selective memory? LOL.

"Away from Denmark...to Caledonia..." said some very famous musician with the song Listen to the Lion. As per ancestry.com very relevant to Angela and me both. Have a great weekend.

Dry Riesling's from Finger Lakes will be tried. Thanks.

Uncle Bob Sink, remember...commander of Band of Brothers...was known througout the Army as "Burbon Bob." That's in the book and movie. LOL. Of course I only remember him post Army career and also of course not once sober! LOL. Only with time did I re-set my respect tab for that man. Damn stupid kid I was.

spek we love the wine we drink, fairly dry chardonnay. And I do drink the lightest of beers and Bud Light is one of my fav's. I sit on the porch of our Workman Road farm with cousins and brother in law on late Sunday afternoon at a 200 plus year old house with bees in the siding and a fancy outhouse. And the bunch sitting there most days would tally $250 mil in net worth for sure. The Bud Light's, Aldi wine, overalls and suspenders...it rocks! I do have $50,000 of bikes of the pure pedal type though...gotta get your priorities straight.

Heck, since I'm less in the moment than Wall Street I tune in intermittently. For years now things seem quicker and more absolute as to what is profiled as "happening" in the economy. So one day I tune in and a sector is hot, business media has the hot sector believers and CEO's on chanting it up. I sort of think about stuff that I own and say to myself one of but not both of the following, "Hell...I'm smart as hell to believe and hold this sector," or, "Hell-chit-fire, I'm left out completely, I'm an idiot." But I don't have time nor interest in going further with thoughts or action and off I go to my real life. A few days later I come back and the stuff that I felt a hero holding has collapsed and the stuff I felt left out of because it had soared is now garbage...and business media has another bunch on chanting it all up. Joe K is almost letting someone he interviews get in a word or two, but then.....yet another interview that isn't and Joe's bias gets even more airtime. Then there Ray D. China's photo on the CNBC site, he's left China for a while to freak us out about the debt crisis. Perfect move...if you've blown up countless times on the China-to-dominate obsession...to sling others off the topic of your utter wrongness. You guys are young. How do you keep up with it all. Hell, I guess I once did. Just don't remember those years too much now. I'm over there with Greg's "Sleepy Joe" or whatnot. Can't wait, you know that "treasuries mode" we all hear is the safe thingy...to when the next pres slings out them default words while of course all over the business world the experts (read Brookfield) are doing just that. The dance of "walk away" is the NEW NEW THING I think... ...at least for me for the next 5 minutes, given I wanna be just like Ray D China, now Ray D Default, and the financial media. I'll be on something new in a day or two.

Stuff that puts you to sleep. Siemens; Parker Hannafin; Dover.

Thanks tede02.

Yes, yes, and more yes.

Remember this is not my money nor my timeline.

"People seek status, tell stories, and imitate" says investment book writer William Bernstein. We all sorta do that. Here comes another one from Charlie (that's me) related to my potential success and/or confidence in bond investing. My uncle ran the world's 2nd largest bedroom furniture maker United Furniture in Lexington, NC. My great uncle ran the world's largest bedroom furniture maker Dixie/Lexington Furniture. In general things went well for them and the many associated with them. Twice they funded Wellington Hall to produce upscale non-bedroom furniture, both times infusing $5 mil - both combined - back 50 years ago when $5 million was real money. Twice they lost it all. I am Robert and Smith - their names - as to bedroom furniture when related to stock investing. Bond investing is Wellington Hall all the way. Things seem similar to a lot of people with stocks and bonds as with bedroom and dinining/living room furniture...but we all know this sort of story...it ain't true. You guys keep writing, I'm reading. I'm designated to steer some trust fund money for several eventuall receivers over the next few years and I will be needing some bonds in them and as to fixed I'm swimming like the 12 month old who fell in the swimming pool. No hurry, never am. While I'm little fazed if maybe even not-at-all-fazed by market gyrations those watching the trusts are of course far different than me. Short term bonds...yea, that's my interest here. I'd say 4 years and less.

Yes.

Thank you.

I think you have made your point clear many times. Can you move to specific investments in bonds you are making? I'd like to read some of your choices to consider them.

Once again longterminvestor, my age resonates and lack of awareness shows up. In my earlier years I was hyper-aware, now I read all things multiple times if I'm trying not to embarrass myself. I didn't know you'd mentioned it previously. Sorry about that.