dealraker

Yea roundball I just heard that a few 38 year old NBA players had scored 30 just one time while LJ is already over 30 times headed to 100. LOL.

Viking I've been part of a few different forums and groups over the decades in my journey of being interested in and owning things like - and maybe expecially Fairfax given it has now (price wise) roared back to life. The nice thing about your leadership of this thread is that it isn't like "oh...this is my idea and never before did anyone ever..." and so forth. You did lots of work and you just put it out while stating your case. For a long time I was a loner-owner, nowhere could I find others to share discussion about Fairfax. It is hard to relay without seemingly projecting some arrogance as to how much I have enjoyed the experience of long term investing - again in things outliers like Fairfax that most typical investment types would never feel good sticking with or making the gap to grasp how it works. I'm a tad different than you as how I go about the insurance business. I basically choose managements that I think are the Labron James' of the business, better and more able to keep outperforming, and I roll right on through the bad periods. Interestingly, and I know you are fully aware, a few of Berkshire's insurance areas are having a tough go of it, Geico being left miles behind Progressive... So the story of Fairfax is one where I felt it inevitable of the comeback. As usual, as a long term owner, I'm quite happy with Fairfax's valuation whether high or low as to our intrinsic model. There's always choices that can be made based on the price-to-value. I don't expect full or over-valuation to come often, and if it does it will be very brief. Have a good day.

Today my multiple old age health issues sort of collaborated such that I sat on the sofa watching CNBC for a while. Yesterday I rode 20 miles on the mountain bike so I guess I over-did it. Anyway, other than Jeffrey Gundlach I'm thinking this is about the most euphoric I've seen the guests and commentators for the last 20-some years. Not sure how many times I heard "this is a time when valuation doesn't count" - but it was often.

It seems then that Jeffrey Gundlach is also out-of-the actual reality as too his thinking. Interesting.

My guess is Warren Buffett is reasonably certain something is going to give- that staying in short term credit will do as well as business/stocks. My worthless view is that more near term than long term: My guess is that rates do rise and that could be significant, even temporarily violently higher in a bond related panic. 2nd guess, particularly if Trump is leading, is that US debt is at least threatened to be (and likely to be) restructured. So if I were an investor I'd be leery of any longer term US debt with a decent interest rate. As far as balancing tax rev vs. spending? Democrats are pretty much accurately understood ---- and what's not widely understood is that Republicans are worse than Democrats, often far worse.

Of course. No surprises here. Some sound articles in my railroad publications as to overall business models and how the railroads can gain market share along with improving their status in the minds of customers. Given some amount of decent relationships the RR's should thrive soon.

The sell-off today in the railroads, led by the first to report CSX, is precisely what ole dealraker has been hammering home for several years now. The low-lower-lowest OR isn't a longevity profit model, it has run 90% if not more of its potential. Back a few years ago I debated with the Norfolk crowd, the $300 price of the stock was cheap they said. OR ratio? Oh it was the obsession. "Mine's better than yours" was the theme, like 5th graders in the bathroom trading baseball cards, envy of "who's better" filled the room. The rails gotta be thinking full blown business model to thrive now. Simply preventing employees from taking time off for a funeral ain't gunna make the CEO's next quarter like it once did. Life is great...if you can stand it.

+1 I think he is a master talent at getting from point A to point B. It would be grand for America if he wasn't so needy of media attention.

+1

Plus - plus with a glass of wine effect evidently.

÷1

Agree. Got involved locally beginning in 1994 and say unequivicolly the most task related rewarding part of my life.

I'll close my posts here by simply stating that there is a stunning connection of who is the Richest with who is the dominant genius. Oh these stock prices do have their say! That fossil Buffett with his outdated words, something about mental and emotional stability. How silly is that, we all want political and societal eruption these days...(just dont cut my benefits or guv revs and tax credits).

Of course I'm being a tad facetious here guys, but I've witnessed so many of this same discussion so many times about so many men... I can't help but chat it up some. Time after time if you and I live a while there will be many more. People forget, they are simply not capable of meaningful comparison (I'm not either), we just live in the moment. Opinions will be endless.

Nah, Jobs was the real thing.

Above all it is blisteringly clear to me, whether tech, innovation, politics...it simply does not matter. But we are absorbed by the cult of personalities and abrasive always gains followers best. The personal/interactive nature of distancing connections via social media has pole vaulted this theme. Add to this the effect of a successfully promoted, thus years ahead of itself stock price and you have something very easy to predict, all 7 of Cialdini's persuasions at work in lollapalooza style...a real life authority hero.

Could absolute not disagree more intensely. Musk is in the moment...next guy will be even more so.

Elon's gunslinger "disruptive" personality is hugely attractive to many and magnifies his presence everywhere. Over the years though all this is absolutely forgotten or never even known as the next round of achievers and/or those needing/succeeding at gaining attention blanket the last bunch. Elon's thus far achievements will seem rediculously minimal.

Somebody is in process of leapfrogging both these guys. We just don't know it yet.

Probably the most over-rated entrepreneur. Also more groundbreaking is his skills of getting US guv funding and tax credits.

The one metric OR stopped providing returns for shareholders long ago. Berk's use of capital may or may not make a difference, time will tell. The game though is well past cutting employees, cutting lines, cutting cap ex, cutting maintenance,, cutting yards, and using debt for buybacks. The math on minimal sales growth gets downright exciting from here.

Basically UK I observed and participated with virtually all the rail Co's changes for over 40 years and one since 1976. Improved operations and vastly better financial performance has intermittently surged within all rails for years - even decades - before HH. My view is that if profitability is pushed too hard and too fast there is near equal repercussions that take years process through... its happening now. So over a the next few years in my view is that UNP's supposed efficiency gains over BNSF will prove nothing but a short term breakaway easily caught up with. Railroads that cut investments and too many workers to pump quarterly numbers via buybacks like UNP are like spun-out solo cyclists being bore down on by the pellaton. Thus the last mile of much of the HH model in my view is or was just dysfunctional whitewash, needless one step forward two steps back, quick profits for selling shareholders at the expense of loyal ones. It is the exact same thing in the insurance brokerage business and that's why all of them model overall growth over simply obsession with operating margin.

We plan to see Eilean Donan on our next trip when we go to the Isle of Skye, it looks fantastic in the photos we see.

Been in Scotland with Angela for a while, will return home Oct 16. Making a small circle from Edinburgh, Ft. William, Ballater, then Arbroath. We day hike focusing on history, remote vistas, book stores, then hit the pub to talk about it with locals. Long ago now I was with you younger guys doing fairly extreme athletic skill type trips, fitness was my obsession. At 70 I now have Waldenstrom lymphoma, a more-than-50% blocked left anterior descending artery, and slow growing prostate cancer. But other than that... Life is great...if you can stand it. Having a great time in Scotland.

longterminvestor the thing I mostly get from the short clip in the video is the same as I've gotten in my 37 years of being in this business - 30 as a publicly traded shareholder. Investors touch-and-go on it, but don't stick around much, there's too much more mentally stimulating stuff for highly intelligent people needing challenges to investigate. Along the same lines it is a normal discussion in the insurance business to say, "Well if you can't compete here you can always go sell."