dealraker

Greg, think clearly! If you'd inherited what Trump did? You'd be worth 100 bil today and you'd have done it without scams...the latest 50 mil inflow on the Trump phone is beyond hilarious by the way. And while you'd have your full blown far right views my guess is you'd have spent exactly zero time in your life crying like a baby about being mistreated - basically the grievance that has propelled all of Don's successes through the years. When you can't compete? Hell, perfect the grievance! Sell it, sell it hard all day every day for 50 years!

Greg, I hate to tell you but... ...your view of Trump and how victimized he's been is a direct result of how successful Trump is of manipulation. To manipulate Gregmal is a true championship worthy of a few gold statues and building names for sure. Trump owns this country, he owns the world. Some feel incredibly empowered by this. I'm just surprise you are one of them! Trump inherited $400 mil and the world has been so unfair to this poor little helpless man for more than half a century!

Semper was up 42.6% last year and Berkshire Hathaway was up 10.9%. -- Separately, I wouldn't ever judge someone's portfolio on how a couple of positions are doing year to date, and I think if you look he took a good trim on these in Q1 (likely near multi year highs) anyway. Forums are created for people to take things "out of context" of someone else's ideas and post their views. That's what I do, what you do, what we all do...on forums.

Yep

Two doors down my neighbors are both veterans, both working elsewhere now. When I showed them my hand arthritis - which basically for me means my thumbs have moved about an inch in towards my palms, they laughed and said, "If you were in the service could be getting a fat disability check for those." I have zero disability in my thumbs. For about a year they hurt and I asked my Ortho about this issue. He told me he could fuse them but that if I left it the way it was I'd quickly adjust and the pain would go away - which it did. Fat disability check...for no disability would be the case for me if I'd chosen to file later as many do (given I was in the service). 32% of our service members retire with disability.

I own some Cisco and just hope the business continues to progress along as the stock is in a tax account. Now we get AI valuations LOL; but then at some point we also get the next stage AI valuations...the low ones that inevitably come after the parabolic moves.

It actually might be more appropriate at some point that someone or those not literally living off budget deficits to gain control of the budget. There is zero motivation for anyone in our current guv to lower the deficit but plenty of incentives to raise it.

Check out DG and DLTR... ...and a moment of glory has now passed.

Sanjeev, I watch as others...particularly one dude...routinely assault you LOL. I'd participate but you'd have to kick me permanently off the site for my wording "intervention." I know you handle all the bombs easily and with grace so I'll just watch from a distance. Your brain? I think 39% annual pretty much sums how "owned" you are!

Anglela and I will do our 21st trip to the UK in September. We'll hang out in London a few days then spend a few more in Bath. Then it is Wales; we'll go to Conwy for a while. Lastly we'll spend time in Betws-y-Coed doing some more primitive trail hikes. Going to England is easier than going to the beach or mountains for us. And then the transportation! We have gotten to to the place where we navigate without renting a car just fine.

GEV AVGO AMD

My view is the 1990's (leaving out the dot.com bunch) was valuation excess. Today is business excess, completely unsustainable business development and growth on the cap ex trail. Cisco, Intel, EMC, and all the rest were never threatened business-wise and they didn't stop growing back then, just hammered valuation wise. My guess is the downside of this cycle will put some of the major players in the cap ex race on the edge if not the failure box. And then it will slowly start growing again, but a lot of time later before that happens. And it does not mean that we are't flying ahead tech wise, that robots are thriving, etc. It is simply too much at one time...then bust. Wild guess, but business/economic cycles are somewhat predictable (not as to timing though). In the meantime it will be interesting, if this era of suck-in and most investors act as in the past, to see what's used as a source of funds. I agree with Reds above that it is highly likely you'll get the stuff you want at more reasonable prices - given it will likely be sold to buy what's going up. To me it is the Battle of Bosworth Field, Henry VII vs Richard III. So many like the Stanley's simply watched...till deciding which side to take...and then it was "ALL IN!" The more the cap ex leaders run; the faster they run; the more they will be chased. We all break down to our wild animal instincts at some point.

Often when in the company of those who aren't aware of my condition or a condition such as mine I will simply quickly state, "So if you see me holding my wine or beer with two hands it's because my tremors are bad today." As you'd expect if there are a bunch of young people around a few will instantly think you have leprosy and immediately run for the exit. Others, the older bunch, generally already have their set of in process body failures and appreciate the alert so they aren't wondering what the heck is going on. For me it is a non-event, not the slightest bit embarrassing at all.

RYAN is also where Wells too wasn't as upbeat as most...but still they've lowered their view a couple of times. Estimates and price target go lower: We revise down our EPS estimates to $2.00, $2.20 and $2.50 (from $2.20, $2.50, and $2.90) reflecting this lower organic growth and margin view. Given that organic growth is now expected to be below the retail insurance brokers (at MSD vs some of the strongest growing retail brokers at MSD+) we now use a below peer multiple for our price target (13.9x 2027 EPS and 10.7x EBITDA) translating into a price target of $31 (from prior $42). The good: The quarter itself was good with EPS, organic and margin beating expectations. Q1 organic revenue of 11.8% was above our 10%, while EBITDAC margin was 29.2% beating our 27.1%. The company saw good growth from the Nationwide/Markel renewal rights deal. From a capital perspective, RYAN is leaning into buyback and bought $40m in Q1 and pointed to additional M&A not coming until later this year / 2027. Ryan is taking share in the E&S market but this is being offset by price declines. The bad: Pricing headwinds in the E&S market are more than offsetting the flow to the market. RYAN said they still see 8%+ of new business coming into the E&S market, which RYAN is benefiting from, but this is being more than offset by pricing headwinds, which is lowering their organic growth to MSD. The MSD would put them in-line with (to-slightlybelow) the retail brokers whereas they had been targeting 1.5-2x the growth of the retail brokers. The ugly: Organic and margin guidance revised down for second straight quarter with RYAN more cautious on property given rate declines persisting in 25-35% range, resulting in a meaningful decline in property business for FY. They are also assuming more moderate growth in casualty. For Q2 they expect flat organic with FY at MSD (4-6%)

Wells was not nearly as positive on BRO pre-fall in price as most of the analysts. But still they've gradually lowered and lowered again their view. I think BRO is a good place to invest today like many here on COBF. EPS estimates and price target go down: Our 2026, 2027, and 2028 EPS estimates go down to $4.45, $4.70, and $5.20 (from $4.50, $4.80 and $5.30), reflecting lower organic growth partially offset by higher contingent commissions. We assume $50m of lost revenue related to Howden (vs $31m provided by co and $75m prior). PT goes to $69 (from $72) using a 14.6x multiple of our 2027 EPS which uses a linear regression of historical organic growth and valuation levels and applying a slight AI discount. Organic expectations lowered: Retail organic growth should see modest improvement in each quarter of the year vs Q1 with an upper bound of 2.5%. Retail is being negatively impacted by 50-100 bps over next couple of quarters from change in revenue model for specialty pharmaceutical business. Specialty distribution organic is expected to be flat in Q2 due to heavy weighting to property cat and should improve in H2 as they place less property cat business and have the 180 business from Accession. Guidance away from organic included: (1) contingents are expected to be up this year (prior guidance was for specialty distribution contingents to be down $15m), (2) Accession synergies expected to be $30-40m in 2026 (unchanged), and (3) they did not provide an updated margin guide for the FY, as estimates should flow though the change in organic and contingent guidance (prior guide was for underlying business to see flat margins while lower investment income was headwind to margin). What else: Property pricing continues to get worse, with property cat E&S rates down 15-35% in Q1 (vs down 15-30% in the Q4) with some changes at the end of the quarter outside of this range. BRO also seems to be leaning into repurchases vs M&A. On Howden they now expect revenue lost from the departures to be $31m, up from prior $23m, and $10m they saw in Q1. Of the remaining lost revenue to Howden they expect it to come on evenly during the year.

Wells today: AJG: estimates modestly higher on buyback. Our 2026 EPS estimate goes to $13.15(from $13.10) reflecting the Q1 beat and higher share repurchases, partially offset by lower acquired revenue. Our 2027 and 2028 EPS estimates go to $14.90 and $16.75 (from $14.85 and $16.65) reflecting flow-through impact of higher share repurchases in 2026 and 2027, partially offset by lower acquired revenue in 2026. Our price target goes to $271 (from $266) on ~18.1x 2027 EPS plus $2 for our clean coal DCF. AON: modest changes to EPS estimates. Our 2026 EPS estimate is unchanged at $19.20. For 2027 our EPS estimate goes slightly higher to $21.55, while 2027 is unchanged at $23.70. Across all years we factor in slightly higher organic growth within Commercial Risk, slightly lower growth in the other three business lines, and slightly lower margins. 2026 also reflects the modest EPS shortfall in the quarter. Our price target goes to $409 (19x 2027 EPS) from $402. WTW: estimates go lower mostly on weaker R&B results. For 2026 our EPS estimate goes to $19.85 (from $20.15) on lower organic growth, predominately from Career and CRB and lower margin in R&B. Our 2027 and 2028 EPS estimates are now $22.80 and $25.15 (from $23.30 and $25.75) reflecting flow-through impact from the lower organic growth in 2026, lower organic growth estimates during both years, and lower margins. Our price target goes to $319 (from $351) based on 14.0x our 2027 EPS estimate.

I was pulling for the Raptors last night.

I simply don't follow CINF.

I have two nearly identical Specialized Epic Evo bikes, one a 2022 and the other a 2023. Of course I just ride cross country trails so light weight for me at my age is important. Both bikes weigh in at slightly sub 22 lbs, both have 120mm suspension up front and 110 in the rear. I'm very happy to do a 10 mile - about 1 hour - ride and go home these days LOL. In the past that wouldn't have begun to keep me satisfied. https://www.specialized.com/us/en/epic-evo-pro/p/199657?color=319952-199657

I thought his reference was more of a two faced market. But Warren got old and people vastly underestimate the slowdown and less aware part of aging. I know it full well, I fight it hard and force myself to update. But the truth is it simply slowly fails to work.

Greg, you and I have almost identical investment models. What I find somewhat perplexing though is how much emphasis and "valuation" you put on tiny market moves based on politics. Mr. Market in my view is programmed presently to "escalate" his hopes and dreams and I do not doubt for one instance that he could take us vastly higher. But I'd be willing, quite willing if I were a gambler, to place a bet that at some point more than a few years from now--- that Mr. Market revisits today's prices if not lower. That view mind you isn't about business valuations, it is about who and what is propelling today's path upwards and what kind of business and business value can sustain itself over change. I recently bought huge amounts of Amazon, Broadcom, and Advance Micro Devices in the tax free account and I wrote that here when I bought them. But the AVGO and AMD choices are based on completely unsustainable cyclical movements in my view, but very powerful while they last. Any day you go into the office and your business just got an offer for twice yesterday's offer? Well, you might consider such an era not particularly sustainable. Amazon and friends, even those of a different color (read Fairfax etc) type businesses---- they are likely sustainable in my view. But much of today's market valuations will come and go on hard, harder, and the hardest ever abrupt cyclical charge and retreat - and then repeat - themes. To me there are countless unsustainable things happening today, some related to lust for Trump and his widely reported business expertise magic and some not related to anything above basic human stupidity. But any market move to me such as since lib day is one I'd say is what Buffett mentioned, "Nothing at all." Trade it is my view, but don't expect not to revisit it. I may be wrong but I have a very high probability in my thinking as to a hard reset, much-much-much harder than liberation day. That may be after a 50% rise though. Mr. Market? I think Mr. Market is going to reflect Trump on one of his endless night time tweeting episodes, he will be completely unhinged. As you know, just my morning ramble...don't take me too seriously. Late on Friday night, President Donald J. Trump took to social media. At 11:03 he posted an AI-generated image of himself, alongside Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum, all shirtless, along with an unidentifiable woman in a bikini, appearing to be relaxing in a swimming pool. But the “swimming pool” was the reflecting pool in front of the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, D.C. Then, at 11:04, Trump posted an image of First Lady Melania Trump grinning at the press conference Trump held after the incident at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, when he said that incident proved he needed his proposed ballroom for his security. Then, at 11:13, Trump posted an image of House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), who is Black, holding a baseball bat. The caption calls Jeffries “low IQ,” “a THUG,” and “a danger to our Country.” Then, at 11:15, he posted an image of himself smiling and holding six wild cards from the game Uno. The caption read, “I HAVE ALL THE CARDS.” Then, at 11:22, he posted a profile image of himself in gold. Then, at 11:26, he posted an image showing him standing near Mt. Rushmore, with the angle arranged to make his head the fifth sculpture on the mountain, so from left to right they were George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt, Abraham Lincoln, and Donald Trump. Then, at 11:32, he posted an image of himself and the first lady. Then, at 11:37, he posted an image of himself and King Charles III. Then, at 11:40, he posted an image of what appeared to be the reflecting pool full of algae next to one that appeared to be the reflecting pool clean and with a bright blue color. Above the dirty image was the label “Hussein Obama,” and below it, the caption “Photo taken Sept[ember] 29, 2012”; the clean one was labeled with “Trump” and “Coming Soon.” Over the two together, the caption read: “This is what our Country was before, and after, “TRUMP!” Then, at 11:41, he posted an AI image of the reflecting pool appearing bright blue, under the caption “American Flag Blue.” Then, at 11:45, he posted another AI image of the reflecting pool appearing bright blue under the caption “American Flag Blue.” It was some 43 minutes.

Yes LC! And luckily I can still run trail building equipment without any issues. I'm only good for about 2 hours at a time, but oh how I do enjoy my often, but brief, trail building encounters. The other day I got the Cat skid steer so stuck in the mud that it took three trucks, three winches, and multiple pulleys to get that baby out. Now that was stuck in the mud if I've ever seen it!

For the record, babyb has been doing these for 30 years. It is not AI!

I have what's called (it can be called a number of things) specific task tremors. I can raise my hands to my mouth without a glass or container without shaking whatsoever. But when I try to drink out of a glass or any containor I'll shake the liquid out of the container most of the time- but not always- with either hand. So if I'm with you drinking liquid you'll most often see me using both hands at the same time on a glass or bottle. 20 years of it, hasn't progressed. The shaking only occurs at the point of trying to drink, I can get my hands up almost to my mouth without shaking but then all hell breaks loose LOL. Also, most days I can not write my name legibly. But I do not shake at all until I begin writing, until I get the pen on the paper.

Also...I think Chubb, which I bought last year (I think it was last year) in the $265 range, and I bought a lot of it, is a very much underappreciated business. Endlessly considered fully priced or over-valued at 10-11 or 12 times earnings Chubb just grinds along. I admire the management style. I've grown up for 4 and 5 decades with the Berk, Markel, Fairfax, and Tokio Marine models...but the Chubb one works too.