dealraker

What defeats others still empowers this man...until proven otherwise. The more he lies, cheats, and steals...the more he pretends to be what he is the opposite of...the more his admirers flock to his defense. Most are fearful, being able to break down the rule of law is seen as quite the accomplishment. But we all know there's a majority of this sceardy-cat cult who are monitoring the scene, they'll jump ship when and if they feel safe to do so and of course when it is in their best interest. I think the stock market is the key to all of this. Until Mr. Market stops his euphoria we have little hope. For that matter isn't the stock market fueling the entire economy? Seems that way to me.

So while I'm heavily weighted into insurance brokers I haven't added (I've bought for a trust I manage but not personally) since 1994. The reason? I come from a newspaper family, my grandparents owned The Dispatch in Lexington, NC and my dad was publisher and editor of it when it was sold to the New York Times in 1975 for $3.8 million- a nice sum back then. Dad owned 20% when this sale came. So for years we would say, "Geez, we'd have a lot more money if we had kept the newspaper." That changed to "Glad we sold the newspaper" not too long afterwards. We guess that The Dispatch today is worth about $100k. In any event I'm not and have never been in the "dismissal" camp when things like the AI threat comes along given it almost assured that big changes will eventually come to the insurance distribution model. I've brought that up several times in this thread and we have discussed it. But even given that it is my guess that none of us are really on top of what's businesses will be most threatened by AI, that the surprises will be many - and actually not as easily predicted as some may suggest. I have family who are very wealthy and in the residential building and managing business who are saying today that the data center build out is making their construction projects both difficult to staff and far more expensive mostly because of labor scarcity. Interesting times and likely just the very-very-very beginning of something that probably will end up being far different that most anyone thinks. My guess is that the current prices of insurance brokers, particularly BRO and AJG, will be a good entry point.

Thanks Ralf.

Given my level of investment in the insurance brokers held from long-long ago I'm not adding but I sure would otherwise. This is equal to the Eliott Spitzer contingency commission lawsuits era of the early 2000's.

Bought Deutsche Boerse too Spek.

Greg don't forget that you and ole dealraker made a big stand on big tech valuations just a few years ago. Parsad quickly doubled his net worth and then some. I think both of us held some tech so we weren't left out. But we were probably as wrong as wrong could possibly be, maybe setting an all time record for how wrong a human could be. While dogma rules, the world is a very difficult place to continually be correct with bold predictions. pupil is a poster who I have let lead me in to two investments, both so successful I'd flatter him into oblivion if I posted the results. Lots to learn from all people here.

LOL...Marco you are an hyper-intense very opinionated guy (nothing wrong with that) and I am an endless everything's in the gray area type. I'm simply reproducing behaviors that have worked for me for 50 years. LOL, who the hell knows!?

I have added to London pretty significantly. News: https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/elliott-management-builds-stake-london-stock-exchange-group-ft-reports-2026-02-11/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook

Exactly!

+1

I would argue that it has a negative value.

Was cheaper by a bit in 2015 but the story seems familiar, AJG earned $2.06 in for the year 2015. Actually the stock fell into the $37 range. Hopefully history repeats: Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) saw its stock price decline by approximately 12.8% during 2015, starting the year at $46.98 and ending at $40.94. The primary reasons for the stock's underperformance in 2015 were: Integration Challenges: The company faced significant integration efforts following several of the largest acquisitions in its history. While these acquisitions grew adjusted revenues by 17%, the operational complexity of merging these large entities weighed on near-term stock performance. Margin Pressures: Integration and acquisition-related costs impacted margins, creating investor concern regarding the near-term delivery of expected synergies from its rapid inorganic growth strategy. Market Sentiment: Investors were cautious about the "medium to high bar" for growth given the decelerating pricing in property and casualty insurance and relatively constant nominal GDP during that period.

Parsad, you got a very special bunch on your hands here at COBF!

A bit more Wells, won't post well be you guys if interested can figure it out: Wells Fargo Express Takeaways Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) | Rating: Overweight | Price Target: $298.00 Analyst: Elyse Greenspan Financials FY (Dec) 2026E 2027E 2028E $ ESTIMATES EPS Q1 4.42 E 4.95 E 5.53 E Q2 2.88 E 3.30 E 3.76 E Q3 3.09 E 3.53 E 3.97 E Q4 2.86 E 3.28 E 3.70 E AN 13.25 E 15.05 E 16.95 E Rev. (MM) 16.93B E 18.62B E 20.41B E FCF (MM) 3,542.5 E 4,045.0 E 4,579.8 E EBIT (MM) 4,642.4 E 5,322.9 E 6,035.1 E EBITDA (MM) 5.73B E 6.45B E 7.20B E Organic Growth (%) 5.6% E 5.1% E 5.1% E WELLS FARGO vs. CONSENSUS Consensus Estimate 13.30 E 14.93 E 17.47 E Difference from Consensus 0.9% (2.9)% VALUATION P/E 18.6x 16.3x 14.5x EV/Revenue 4.5x 4.1x 3.8x EV/FCF 21.7x 19.0x 16.8x FCF Yield 5.5% 6.3% 7.2% EV/EBIT 16.5x 14.4x 12.7x EV/EBITDA 13.4x 11.9x 10.7x EPS: Represents adjusted EPS EBIT (MM): Excludes corporate EBITDA (MM): Excludes corporate Organic Growth (%): Organic growth reflects the brokerage segment only Consensus Estimate: EPS; Source: FactSet Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset. NA = Not Available, NE = No Estimate Investment Thesis AJG is positioned to show strong organic revenue growth, continues to add bolt-on acquisitions, and is growing its EBITDA. Further, the company is benefiting from increased scale following acquiring Willis Re's treaty reinsurance business and more recently, the AP acquisition. Typically, brokers generating the strongest margins have tended to have the highest valuations. As a result, we would expect AJG's valuation to expand to reflect its stronger margin profile. We rate the shares Overweight. Risk vs. Reward – Upside/Downside Price Target Scenarios $0 $131 $262 $393 $526

Some Wells Fargo commentary on the 4th quarter: The good: Brokerage underlying organic was 5%, in-line with December guide and 2026 underlying outlook of 5.5% is also unchanged. Brokerage EBITDAC margin beat us by 40bps and was favorable by ~50bps to guide. Risk Management organic was in-line (at 7%) and margin was better (21.6% vs our 20.8%). Further, Risk Management margin guide for 2026 of 21-22% was favorable to our prior 21%. AP EBITDAC of $215m beat guided $200m on lower expenses, which is good because they missed on AP last quarter. The bad: AJG restated Brokerage organic to remove the large life deals plus the deferred revenue assumption changes as they believe this more accurately reflects the underlying growth of its business. Both were immaterial for the FY but were a combined -3% to Q4 organic (-1% for life and -2% for accounting) which would have put organic under the old definition at 2%, missing our 3.3% and the low-end of the guided 2-4%. The ugly: Gallagher provided a lot of moving pieces around Brokerage margin for 2026 with the range equating to deterioration of 20-140bps (80bps at midpoint), unfavorable to our prior 20 bps of deterioration. Main headwinds are around FII (lack of income on AP cash and lower rates). AP synergies are expected to contribute 70bps for FY and 140bps in Q4, showing they will be at run-rate $160m at end of year ($48m in Q4) but below it during year.

The loyalty penalty. Shop your insurance every couple of years at minimum and every year there's a big increase.

A lot of things begin festering in the mind when stock prices fall. Given my association with Gallagher I've learned to trust management's view, it hasn't mislead me since 1994. It hasn't always been happy talk, but today as of yet they are quite ok with the way things are going both within the company and in the broker business overall.

Uh Reds, once again you are so unaware of yourself it is astounding. Stereotyping is your entire presentation.

So Wells has free cash flow in the over $1.5 bil range for this year and over $1.8 bil f or 2028. Market cap $24 bil. So basically while we have obviously/clearly/of-course less potential growth as compared to the mid 1990's we are almost back to the valuations of when I bought the stock initially (1994). When Eliott Spitzer, attorney general of NY, was doing his contingency dance the valuations and prices of the brokers stalled for years. It can happen, it is almost certain to happen. Business and stock prices correlate over time, the value of the brokers during the Spitzer years was steadily going up while the stock prices were not. Compared to Mr. Market I think the probability to enter the broker business at the valuations of today has a very high probability of being a good idea. There's no hurry though, any catalyst for valuation up's may be some time out. Will be interesting to see the organic fallout with the other brokers in the next few days.

There has for years and years been a big need from a few for lengthy and detailed write-ups on Berkshire. I think to some degree Buffett's annual letters of long ago initiated the trend of the-more-you-can-write-the-better and many followed the trend. But I think what people miss is that on the commercial side is that investment people are marketing themselves the best way they can and Berkshire/Buffett is a vehicle that works well - for a few. Bloomstran is a decent investor who at times seems overly externally focused and critical as to how others are progressing who don't invest like him. In most ways I agree with what he writes but it doesn't flatter either of us to state it in print.

Yea I think the organic issue is throughout all.

Wells had turned what seemed excessively negative on BRO which turns out looking somewhat correct. Now for the rest of them, the organic story is in control. Only seemingly good thing is the free cash flow, annualized with 6% drop stock is about 14x.

Also there's no statute of limitations for murder charges. Next Presidet please.

Hopefully we can get some Ice stud muffins charged: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/can-ice-agents-be-prosecuted-minneapolis-shootings-2026-01-25/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook

I guarantee you police officers for the most part also know that shooting someone on the ground at point blank range could easily bounce up and hit the other officers. How they got away unscathed must be the luck of the century.