CorpRaider

I had a PDF with all of his investor letters and old message board posts. Got if from one of the posters on here if I recall. Did not think it suited me well as someone to study and try to emulate. I think I deleted. I was impressed that he made most (?) of his counterparties post collateral for the swaps he used to short structured credit (unlike most of the others...as I understand from media accounts), but I was persuaded by Li Lu's public remarks that it (the Big Short) wasn't a good bet when you factor in solvency risk and other potential issues related to collecting on the contracts.

I don't, but you might google early retirement now safe withdrawal rate (or sequence of returns risk) if you're curious about the topic.

Buffett, 3G, Peltz, and the Pupil like ULVR in the mid 30's. <lazer eyes>

Jack Ma thought his life was as good as that of Bezos or Musk until he learned it wasn't.

At the risk of stating the obvious, the new 50x podcast series with Thorndike hosting and Nick Howley/Transdigm being the topic is great. Just wish it came out a decade ago. In addition, no one is talking about the huge red flag of their use of EBIT "D" "A" for most of the interview. I'ma put that on Thorndike as Howley eventually made him switch to the correct "EBITDAAAAAH". Also it's kind of odd hearing Thorndike read the ads (like if you found all the outsiders can't you just skip that). Then again, I suppose even Buffett and Munger run their ads in the BRK annual meeting.

JBGS. Even though cap rates are likely headed to 12%, I really get a lot of psychic income when people drop a planned move to Crystal City as a flex in casual conversations. [But for real the fact that people do that might reveal a lot about the true value and viability of office...signaling and status and MAYBE the localized network/filtering heuristics.]

I wanted to share that I do not like the kindle version. It is set up like a PDF and I'm unable to change text sizes, etc... I personally wish that I went with the paper version.

Oof. Jeffersonian level character flaws.

Yeah I follow that logic.

I thought you Hodl'd the Goog?

GOOOOOOOG-EL [Heroically resists urge to make a down 95%/split joke]

Agree with observations. I recently deleted the compilation of his letters and old internet posts to free up room on my google drive.

Yeah I think you're right. Will be interesting dynamics of the founder leaving and a big overhang of selling his stock over the decade thereafter, but that's nothing new.

Greg matters the most to me. 2020 resolved questions on that score for me bigly. Ted is a beast. IDK about Todd. Probably the potential changes with the board/ownership after WEB exits is something I'm thinking about now. I thought maybe Gates would be there/interested to help watch over things but it seems that could be in flux. I don't want to hang around if Howie is calling the shots. Then we might be looking at Loews 2.0 or something (as Martin Franklin conjectured a few years back and he might have some interesting perspective on that question if his career is viewed as a continuation of that of his father Roland and/or James Goldsmith).

I mean if you are arguing against making big timing guesses based on these indicators, I agree with you. If for no other reason than I can't predict future interest rates. The more discrete answer is that these methods have been quantitatively valid in the past and there are good hypotheses as to why they will continue to be somewhat predictive in the future (backed by at least one Nobel). I just use Q as a confirmation for the CAPE signal. So, you're looking at the aggregate, smoothed, income statement and cross-checking that against the aggregate balance sheet (basically). I believe you can use Bogle's method (or AQR) too and get the same-ish answer.

Assuming a 20x CAPE (trailing 10 year average S&P of 134.06), you're looking at about 2,681. Of course the CAPE (PE10) was more like 10x during the mid 70's to mid 80's (i.e., the last "inflationary regime").

It sounds to me like changes are afoot with respect to the bequest of his shares upon death. He imposed a requirement on the gates foundation as I recall to promptly spend the money (maybe over 10 years after death). I wonder if similar requirements will be imposed on the Susan Buffett foundation.

Sometimes.

Yeah, ain't nobody got time for that. I finally un-subbed. It's fine, he sold out and retired a few years ago. I vote probably no on the bottom thing BTW. Time series price momentum is negative in all equity and bond markets AFAIK and CAPE (30) and Q are still high while inflation and rates are rising.

20%?

Thanks man. Not overwhelmed with PF so far, but we'll see.

Checking out Penfed: sharing just FYI. LO said I need to be below 70% LTV to get best rate (prime + .25%). (I think) He said there's a penalty and rate increases 300 BPS at end of 10 year floating period if you term out your balance. I might do it if drive by appraisal works and is high enough. Otherwise might check out 3rd fed.

Thanks Spek. Yeah it's too early to tell if this will have any impact or will be material (or was over the last 3-5 years). Cliff Asness @ AQR wrote a paper about the potential larger impacts of ESG on the cost of capital/expected returns, but might be special "moving parts" for oil & gas. My only exposure is through Berkshire and index funds.

Under at least that part of the theory, I think the percentage of capital that eliminated O&G as an option would probably be relevant not the physical location of the extraction plant. That's interesting. I guess the delta between shell's debt stack and a comp that is ESG approved would be a relevant yardstick. Shell might also be an example of some of the benefits of the regulatory impact/risks; capital constraints could be more obvious if you're a smaller wildcatter and Wells Fargo just told you to move your loan because congress is up their ass. Also wonder if efforts to determine provenance of oil (russian via india sham, or iranian) will favor large players who can navigate those challenges. Probably just narrative following price, but I have been thinking about Munger's "I basically love Standard Oil" comment.

The cost of capital potentially could rise for the entire industry if ESG is impacting the capital allocation in developed countries globally. Maybe they are awash in cash at the moment, but if they have to fund a project 100% with equity going forward the required IRR/hurdle (for majors projects around the world including jvs with gov't operators in EM) should be higher (probably the better argument would be that the impact was felt more acutely over like the last 5 years and is manifesting now). We could theorize that maybe the Saudis and the like don't desire any outside capital but seems hard to square with IPO.