CorpRaider

Assuming a 20x CAPE (trailing 10 year average S&P of 134.06), you're looking at about 2,681. Of course the CAPE (PE10) was more like 10x during the mid 70's to mid 80's (i.e., the last "inflationary regime").

It sounds to me like changes are afoot with respect to the bequest of his shares upon death. He imposed a requirement on the gates foundation as I recall to promptly spend the money (maybe over 10 years after death). I wonder if similar requirements will be imposed on the Susan Buffett foundation.

Sometimes.

Yeah, ain't nobody got time for that. I finally un-subbed. It's fine, he sold out and retired a few years ago. I vote probably no on the bottom thing BTW. Time series price momentum is negative in all equity and bond markets AFAIK and CAPE (30) and Q are still high while inflation and rates are rising.

20%?

Thanks man. Not overwhelmed with PF so far, but we'll see.

Checking out Penfed: sharing just FYI. LO said I need to be below 70% LTV to get best rate (prime + .25%). (I think) He said there's a penalty and rate increases 300 BPS at end of 10 year floating period if you term out your balance. I might do it if drive by appraisal works and is high enough. Otherwise might check out 3rd fed.

Thanks Spek. Yeah it's too early to tell if this will have any impact or will be material (or was over the last 3-5 years). Cliff Asness @ AQR wrote a paper about the potential larger impacts of ESG on the cost of capital/expected returns, but might be special "moving parts" for oil & gas. My only exposure is through Berkshire and index funds.

Under at least that part of the theory, I think the percentage of capital that eliminated O&G as an option would probably be relevant not the physical location of the extraction plant. That's interesting. I guess the delta between shell's debt stack and a comp that is ESG approved would be a relevant yardstick. Shell might also be an example of some of the benefits of the regulatory impact/risks; capital constraints could be more obvious if you're a smaller wildcatter and Wells Fargo just told you to move your loan because congress is up their ass. Also wonder if efforts to determine provenance of oil (russian via india sham, or iranian) will favor large players who can navigate those challenges. Probably just narrative following price, but I have been thinking about Munger's "I basically love Standard Oil" comment.

The cost of capital potentially could rise for the entire industry if ESG is impacting the capital allocation in developed countries globally. Maybe they are awash in cash at the moment, but if they have to fund a project 100% with equity going forward the required IRR/hurdle (for majors projects around the world including jvs with gov't operators in EM) should be higher (probably the better argument would be that the impact was felt more acutely over like the last 5 years and is manifesting now). We could theorize that maybe the Saudis and the like don't desire any outside capital but seems hard to square with IPO.

Well one example might be the lower availability of capital due to lending divestitures/pressures and equity ESG constraints or even just the policy statements of governments seeking to terminate/reduce the use dissuading investments/introducing perceived terminal risk, much like tobacco, resulting in higher cost of capital/expected return resulting in fewer capital projects ergo a higher spot price, but seems like other capture could come about (via carbon credit/tax/regulation regimes or provenance preferences for "lower impact" sources).

I wonder if the industry has changed is going to benefit bigly from regulatory capture (like elaborate carbon capture regs/requirements and structurally higher ROI requirements now due to ESG mandates and/or increased terminal risk) from now on basically like legit "sin" (or perhaps "anti-glamour") stocks.

I was hoping this one would be titled "My Son and the Crypto Genius"

To recycle my Twitter joke: He's going to keep hiking until the "yield farmers" are out there sowing some wheat!

Yeah there has been no inflation of Miller Lite, thankfully.

Sounds like Ross is a true contrarian with the timing there. Pretty sure he's the original guy who put me onto Weller (definitely was someone on here). Thankful for a few great years, but can't find it now. I pretty much stick to four roses stuff now unless my dad finds me some Blanton's.

I run a reasonably large portion of my investments (like 20%) according to a trend following strategy. No real free lunches but assuming that marginal utility/option value of your cash goes up during bear markets (ones that trend...no help in 1987) it seems like a good strategy. That account is down almost 5.4% YTD (very unaudited). Acct has mostly been in bills this year but I took a whipsaw when the S&P popped back up for a minute and had to ride down one month because I only test monthly (was hard not to override). The alpha architect guys have at least one trend-related offering: $VMOT. I'm seeing down 7.25% YTD (but it consists of value and momo underlying funds with trend overlay). I think Meb Faber at Cambria has some trend following ETFs too. I think it's VAMO and GMOM use some trend following signals. Looks like both are up in the range of 5-6% YTD You gotta' be willing to get annoyed at the compounder right tail 100 bagger neversell sermons from the mount during the bull booms tho. haha. I've been thinking of trying out a levered BRK trend following + value strategy. Where have I gone wrong...

You got prime minus a quarter? Thanks I'ma ask for that.

Yeah I'm a crappy son. My parents should be laying the wood to these with their cash in the credit union and whatnot, but I just don't think they could handle the site and I just don't want to deal. I already had to call myself one time after getting locked out and the guy let me in thankfully after I couldn't guess/recall my favorite movie. And I am VERY online. hah.

Hmm penfed looks like prime +.25% on site for lowest advertised rate. I will still probably go with them since it seems like they are easier to deal with. EDIT: Thanks for this discussion everyone (including OP whomst was dunked upon). I should probably wait until after July when all my 0% CC advances that I plowed into $PSTH reverse (IBKR wouldn't let me margin it), but I am feeling some urgency to get this in place before financial conditions tighten further. In any event, this is the kind of line I would probably keep in place for the foreseeable future.

Hmmm, those terms seem quite good based on quick research....an Ohio S&L....took a long time to get...I wouldn't mind having a non-callable LOC at prime or prime - for sure.

Just bought a little tracker/send me proxies position in BF.B/A.

CITI? I'm putting that on Todd. PARA is clearly WEB.

No way a shoe shine boy could navigate treasury direct. haha Yeah thanks pupil, I started thinking about this that's its a zero coupon offering and not so great in that context. Maybe wait for the coupons to catch up to the market. Ulysses contract: if yields get to 7% again I'm going to lay the wood to these like my dad should have done in the 80's.

Does anyone have Pat Dorsey's recent letters/a good idea of his returns? I see whale wisdom has him ranked highly, based on analyzing top 10 13F positions and equal weighting them (which is probably not a horrible approximation for his strategy). Thanks in advance.