CorpRaider

Lil AMZN

It seems like you gotta' have some systematic guardrails that give you a chance to catch those right tails and try to get some positive skew don't you? Max 100% down (if you don't average down) and infinity up. The distribution is not normal or random.

$GSHD?

Time for WSJ leak.

And then they start getting their asses whipped worse than the Russians. The Chinese soldiers don't want to be there, "what the hell is wrong with the status quo" and the Taiwanese are fighting for amazing lives and they have been preparing for this since WW2 ended.

Berk

I like watching real yield but I have recently chastised myself because I feel like he spends most of the show on prediction porn.

$COTY

Seems like human nature and political impulses might make a similar path fairly likely. "Mission accomplished!" Human confirmation/under reaction/loss or pain aversion = stuff trends.

Oh yeah would be shocked if he's not totally bailing on USB. Not as shocked as I would be if BAC isn't doing much more horrible stuff on a larger scale at this very moment than USB and WFC, particularly in Merrill, but very shocked.

I conjecture that he's dumping USB because of the reported bad activity that to me was basically identical to the WFC stuff. Cockroaches and all that. All things being equal, I think he would prefer Para over DIS because of capital allocation/ownership alignment. DIS just had to put out a presser....about forming a committee.....to look at cost cuts in streaming...LOL for fooks sake. Shari and co tried to sell publishing and sold real estate/HQ and they've also been more rational and less reactionary to wall street wishes about theatre business and arms dealing to Amazon and NFLX imop. They also blew up Hwang and those guys with the timely prefs issuance. Financially sharp, he likes all else being similar. It's also waaaaaaay cheaper and he says a lot of BS but usually he buys stuff pretty damn cheap. Also, it might be Ted.

For all the OXY ink, good lord that CVX position is Buffett, is yuge, and he's still buying. Interesting to see him sell some $BK. Wonder if Paramount is WEB or Ted. Up to 15% of the class. $LPX is kind of interesting given the history with building materials, johns manville, and unforeseen liabilities. Super cheap cyclical, maybe it's Ted.

$6MM of CABO and $60K of MKL.

"Well, I guess I might as well buy some $DIS." - Eeyore

I locked myself out once and couldn't remember my reset questions. I was guessing favorite movie for like 12 attempts. The guy just finally let me in. haha

Agree more debt is riskier than less but that's not what I read the above to say.

This is fine.

I never get this argument. They're paying the debt in nominal dollars and the assets and income stream are also priced in nominal dollars. Aren't we just anchoring on the old numbers and saying that interest amount sounds too big.

Aaaaaaand you're locked out. Now all you have to do is get a wax seal from the white wizard to add a bank account. No sweat.

Mike Mayo was on Bloomberg yesterday. Opined that banks might actually grow earnings through this recession.

Something different/new this time to keep in mind is the QT. They can stop hiking and just chill and let that QT run.

Law of large numbers usage violation above. haha. But yeah it's nice to see some -2% nasdaq, flat(ish) dow and SPY days. Justice. Now we just need the internet ponzis to zero.

Thanks for the info @dealraker and @Gregmal.

Damn that 85 year old woman can deadlift about as much as I can!