CorpRaider

We don't have a thread AFAIK, but I've been looking at VNO and buying some SLG and JBGS lately so I want to drop some notes here, probably not worth a blog post. A) NYT hates Penn redevelopment plan? (or maybe New York Today newsletter does: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/30/nyregion/penn-station-towers.html) IMO, they do have a point about dropping more office even if it's going to be a decade +. I need to read some VNO stuff about what they're thinking; I guess oversupply is the other guy's problem. But midtown sucks big time and I think making it all more like the rest of Manhattan even FIDI would be a great idea. B) SLG, I would rather have my one vandy already built; prefer their more opportunistic less dirt guy ethos: relatively limited, selective (re)development. Buy backs were legit; then pivoting to Korean money/asset management if stock is cheap/cost of capital too high are all great but mgmt been slapped down on comp a few times lately (good that shareholder are engaged I guess), but then I was reading their filings and WTF is this deal about Holliday and COO getting ~1% side pockets on one vandy upside. LOL they paid based on "independent appraisal". Red flags. Also, pivoting to retiring the floating stuff coming up this year is alright but obviously not ideal (buybacks above $80. Balance sheet is somewhat (hah) opaque with the debt and jvs and whatnot, but I love the specialty merchant bank/RE PE shop in NYC thing. Mezzanine gods have flexed on some great deals and they get access and info that way for sure. Of course, I guess you get sued more often. I tend to think more and more people are going to be back to like it was before covid at some point. We had good video conferencing software and hardware with polycom stuff that would focus on the speaker and blow up the relevant camera shot in like 2005. Granted it was only in the meeting/board rooms, so it's cheaper/better but I don't but that it's like a step change. If you go to the meeting or are present in the office the partner (or whatever the BSD is called in your industry) remembers you exist and you get more work/get staffed on stuff and you will end up more likely to survive the layoffs and/or get promoted over remote guy. Also, first thing I do to start vetting an investment, law, whatever firm is pull up shots of their address/HQ. Even all these interviews on Bloomberg and whatnot are laggy and crappy camera quality so the guest who is willing to drive in should get booked over the competitor unless it's like diller from his yacht. But I mean with dirt in Manhattan or DC below book, and better liquidity and management etc, I don't really have to believe any of that BS I just typed about the asset class. Note to self, look at $BXP if Boston ever becomes a real city.

CMCSA

Haha! I partnered with Thomas Petterffy on $SLG. He can be capricious, so let's just say I hope it works out as well for me as it did for Rick Guerin.

Oh I was just joking, it's an old talk on youtube to DU students and he talks about levering up $T stock on margin. He doesn't really talk about anything substantive w/r/t $T. I think this is it: Edit: Whelp, I got filled. I think I'm going to puke.

I'm watching this John Malone talk where he tells the students to lever long $T and get a 12% ROE over and over whilst checking the quote on $SLG.

I'm hearing that you have a $100 price target on Berk. That really grinds everyone's gears.

Thanks for the insight!

Level with me (and my wife more importantly). Beach houses are usually turrible investments?

Good point. I just don't know about the expensive Montessori versus the free public (including magnets). I'm also thinking if we're going to pay that much tuition we might as well send him to the Day School, so at least he graduates with a rolodex to which he could sell insurance or whatever. I do kind of regret the worthless toys when I step on them.

I hear you. I'm furiously trying to get there (but not mortgage debt prepayment...I got my bank death locked in at ~negative 5% right now. My only regret is that I was too lazy to do a yuge cash out refi). Carpal tunnel and back and neck damage are no picnic either. On the other hand, my wife just sent me information on a private Montessori school for the lad. Pay through the nose to create a hippie?

I had a PDF with all of his investor letters and old message board posts. Got if from one of the posters on here if I recall. Did not think it suited me well as someone to study and try to emulate. I think I deleted. I was impressed that he made most (?) of his counterparties post collateral for the swaps he used to short structured credit (unlike most of the others...as I understand from media accounts), but I was persuaded by Li Lu's public remarks that it (the Big Short) wasn't a good bet when you factor in solvency risk and other potential issues related to collecting on the contracts.

I don't, but you might google early retirement now safe withdrawal rate (or sequence of returns risk) if you're curious about the topic.

Buffett, 3G, Peltz, and the Pupil like ULVR in the mid 30's. <lazer eyes>

Jack Ma thought his life was as good as that of Bezos or Musk until he learned it wasn't.

At the risk of stating the obvious, the new 50x podcast series with Thorndike hosting and Nick Howley/Transdigm being the topic is great. Just wish it came out a decade ago. In addition, no one is talking about the huge red flag of their use of EBIT "D" "A" for most of the interview. I'ma put that on Thorndike as Howley eventually made him switch to the correct "EBITDAAAAAH". Also it's kind of odd hearing Thorndike read the ads (like if you found all the outsiders can't you just skip that). Then again, I suppose even Buffett and Munger run their ads in the BRK annual meeting.

JBGS. Even though cap rates are likely headed to 12%, I really get a lot of psychic income when people drop a planned move to Crystal City as a flex in casual conversations. [But for real the fact that people do that might reveal a lot about the true value and viability of office...signaling and status and MAYBE the localized network/filtering heuristics.]

I wanted to share that I do not like the kindle version. It is set up like a PDF and I'm unable to change text sizes, etc... I personally wish that I went with the paper version.

Oof. Jeffersonian level character flaws.

Yeah I follow that logic.

I thought you Hodl'd the Goog?

GOOOOOOOG-EL [Heroically resists urge to make a down 95%/split joke]

Agree with observations. I recently deleted the compilation of his letters and old internet posts to free up room on my google drive.

Yeah I think you're right. Will be interesting dynamics of the founder leaving and a big overhang of selling his stock over the decade thereafter, but that's nothing new.

Greg matters the most to me. 2020 resolved questions on that score for me bigly. Ted is a beast. IDK about Todd. Probably the potential changes with the board/ownership after WEB exits is something I'm thinking about now. I thought maybe Gates would be there/interested to help watch over things but it seems that could be in flux. I don't want to hang around if Howie is calling the shots. Then we might be looking at Loews 2.0 or something (as Martin Franklin conjectured a few years back and he might have some interesting perspective on that question if his career is viewed as a continuation of that of his father Roland and/or James Goldsmith).

I mean if you are arguing against making big timing guesses based on these indicators, I agree with you. If for no other reason than I can't predict future interest rates. The more discrete answer is that these methods have been quantitatively valid in the past and there are good hypotheses as to why they will continue to be somewhat predictive in the future (backed by at least one Nobel). I just use Q as a confirmation for the CAPE signal. So, you're looking at the aggregate, smoothed, income statement and cross-checking that against the aggregate balance sheet (basically). I believe you can use Bogle's method (or AQR) too and get the same-ish answer.