CorpRaider

Berk; just raising cash.

Bloomberg says my boys over at FCNCA are in the data room at SIVB, might bid. Prior "very low" bid during FDIC process was rejected. They have helped FDIC resolve a lot of smaller bank assets over the years.

Oh I just mean below trailing, reported book, it probably won't be below actual book. I got some there in 2020, so possibly anchoring. I think stagflation is likely going to result in cheap stocks like the late 70's, it seems like everyone is going to freak the f out, but we will see. We're only just now below CAPE 28.

I sold some BERK because some outstanding limit orders filled and cash was getting too low. I feel like Berk below book is coming again anyways.

CLPR

PNC only gave a billion. I can't believe Citi gave $5 billion. I hope they sent it to the right bank this time.

Wells will take your money in exchange for Rep. Waters and Senator Warren to kick you, best they can do.

I'm hoping we'll get 'em below TBV at least the ones I want.

My understanding accords with Bill's and if they put it in HTM but have to sell the type of security they have to mark it all. If you have durable float you can actually HTM it's just an accounting convention and you just reinvest the principal and interest you receive daily at higher rates. The AFS just flows through AOCI to equity as it is marked.

I think they probably have to get a special dispensation from the pope of money when deposits come pouring over the transom (they did for stimmy as I recall). They have been "running off" deposits for like three years (and probably lowering their expected "deposit beta" as a result). According to twitter they are giving hot money VCs trying to come over from SIVB kicks to the mid-section before they will accept their funds. Regulatory capture wins again.

My proposed algo: if crypto still exists or people have used the term "fintech" since the last meeting you hike. If not, you chill.

Hey everybody we're below 28 CAPE/2020 low. We're all going to get laid!

I always adopted the view propounded by other, smarter people, that we would probably need to come through a bit of a crisis and flex like utes to get the valuations up (and also maybe to get the populists and regulators to lay off). Davis doubles ain't easy.

I agree, having read Buffett, I primarily look at the liability side of the bank's balance sheet. That's where the durable competitive advantages lie, if any [both more important and knowable in a Bayesian weighting sense]. I own BAC, WFC, and USB. Agree on aversion to investment banking. Good call on on the MTM losses by the way. You were raising concerns weeks ago. To me, it's a great example that if you don't have anything special (or in fact have something worse...such as concentrated deposits in excess of FDIC limits with a bunch of flighty, rich, financially unsophisticated aholes) you have no durable float and a levered crappy bidness.

Been looking at FHN. Though in the past I have decided that I prefer banks big enough to scale/spread the tech spend and regulatory costs and own a big slug of Early Warning, LLC/Zelle/Mastercard part deux, which has been a cut off at USB/PNC/Truist level. If I bought FHN, it would be predicated on reaching the scale via TD. The key as ever to me is the strength of your float/low "deposit beta." Probably gets lower for big banks (except citi) as the other guys get dealt (and hopefully shadow banks and crypto scumbags as well). Guess that's the power of a money center/center of a network effect of money.

I also would like all crypto at zero. Thx.

I'ma need a -30% in the mannheim used car index pls, thx.

Free upside if the price is right as I see it. That plus right sizing real estate plus upgrading the online offering (hey a voice assistant is dropping soon...wooo). Disclosure: main thing I care about is the deposit base/liabilities/float. None of the others you cite have that to the best of my knowledge. I would therefore never buy them.

I have often wondered if the no fee paid for by securities lending could be taken to excess, causing some surprise losses, but I haven't been able to figure out how it might happen.

It does. Never waste a good crisis. Might have to wait for some credit deterioration to reveal that they've been prohibited from chasing growth in loans and have been kicking out hot deposits during this bubble.

Yeah I listened to that podcast and came away convinced that it should be valued like a balance sheet user not amazon. Here's hoping the feds will be forced to release Wells and TD to once again fully serve the public in a time of need and certain senators from MA will be left in stunned silence.

CPI will be interesting. Maybe they need to chill with the hikes and lay the wood to QT + jawbone to try and get the curve not so inverted?

GHC, caught a fill on a limit order placed in calmer times.

Haha, yeah I worked with some guys built up banks and sold to First Union several times. They ruined Wachovia faster than I thought they would.

@Spekulatius You're referencing Cathay? That's the California kind of Chinese-American dominant bank?