John Hjorth
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Posts posted by John Hjorth
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Awesome, @longlake95! - Others : More!
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Hi Jeff [ @DooDiligence],
Here we go - enjoy - and enjoy your weekend!:
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4 minutes ago, Gregmal said:
Still can’t really find much to buy. So I bought some MKL
- Never thought - ever - I should see this posted by you. [Please don't take it too seriously! 
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39 minutes ago, Dinar said:
well, we forgave Germany and Japan and China, so why not Russia?
33 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:The US forgave Germany and Japan after they were beaten into submission and totally destroyed. If we can beat Russia into submission, then we will forgive them.
I am not sure what you mean by forgiven in China's case. China was an ally in WW2.
@Xerxes said it first. LOL
You have to help your worst enemy to get on the feet again, when the clash is over. You may not love to do so, but for macro economists it's plain and pure, almost simple, ... logics and macroeconomics on the rim, - no feelings involved whatsoever. To me, no doubt USA here did the right thing after WWII.
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I have interviewed my - now late - father, who passed away august last year at the age of 96 - about how he was perceiving his own whole life, talking with him many, many hours during the last decade or so, I would say tirelessly, trying to grasp and understand how he has perceived his living conditions back then - later in life with my mother - and how living conditions have evolved during the years.
He was post WWII an officer in the the Danish army, in a brigade controlling how things evolved post WWII in the German population, in a part of Germany, Hamburg and north bound, out of of Itzehoe, located NE of Hamburg.
Not one word about that was I during all those years with him with talks about his past able to get out of him about that part of his life. When asked about it, he simpy turned his face in another direction than me at every occurrence.fter WWII.
Today, I think of it as PTSD of his, to which I never got any help.
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We have to love our former worst enemy, when the dust settles, to get along.
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This has hit the news here in Denmark,too, today. If it is so, I consider it mega ballsy and at the same time mega destcructive.
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Thank you for bringing all shades and details on the matter to the table here, @gfp. It's appreciated much, as always.
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16 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
I am not sure where BHE is held, but suspect it’s at the insurance level as well. ....
I did check up on the BHE ownership. It's actually owned by Berkshire Hathaway, the parent, and has been since control was obtained over it in 1999. The documentation for it is in the the attachments to the BHE 2022 10-K on SEC website.
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I consider you lucky not to have gotten into such professional and work environment.
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Quotes from the MKL topic in "Investment Ideas" forum of posts by Sanjeev [ @Parsad], @dealraker & @Viking, for further discussion separately :
On 3/6/2023 at 3:08 AM, Parsad said:Sadly, it's unlikely that Buffett or Munger will be around after the next decade. Will BRK's advantage still continue under the leadership of others with such massive amounts of capital? Cheers!
On 3/6/2023 at 3:19 AM, dealraker said:I think what is Berkshire now will be several separate stocks in ten years.
23 hours ago, Viking said:
Buffett gets a free pass on so many things. Rightly so… he has earned it. It is his company. And he is the controlling shareholder. The new guy? Has earned nothing. Not his company. Not the controlling shareholder. Now if the new guy nails it (or gets lucky) then Berkshire will likely continue on its merry way. But if adversity strikes and is persistent… nothing would surprise me. It will be super interesting to follow.This future break-up scenerio for Berkshire has
poopedpopped up regularly here on CoBF within the last decade - now four or five times during that period, I think.I do not recall ever to have seen anyone taking a serious stab at analyzing such a scenario and trying generate some written reflections - the closest thing has been a piece by Ravi Nagarajan [The Rational Walk] within the last three years or so, based on the share class structure.
- @Viking considers it super interesting to follow. I would say ditto, but like a nightmare, or like seing "Cliffhanger" on a large screen, while you're suffering severely from acrofobia!
Anyone?
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3 hours ago, jbwent63 said:
LEGO Group would be an interesting, large addition especially given the recent acquisition of Jazwares (via Alleghany). It is owned (75%) by the founding Kristiansen family with the remainder in a trust. The current Chairman is fourth generation and the company has had a nice turnaround from a decade ago or so (the company I work for bought a small business from LEGO in the early 2000's). Not sure even the 75% would be for sale, but BRK would be a logical place for it to land should the family wish to divest.
About LEGO, yes, 25% is foundation owned, but the rest 75% is owned by Kirbi A/S, the privately held investment vehicle [no foundation involvement], which then again is owned by Mr. Kjeld Kirk Kristiansen and his three kids [1/4 each, in a pool].
Separate website, Annual Reports available here, certainly not in any way shappy.
Kirki A/S is managed by Søren Thorup Christensen, former CFO of A.P. Moeller Maersk A/S and Danish CPA [, like me].
Mr. Kjeld Kirk Kristiansen left Billund, Jutland, [the home of LEGO] years ago to to live on a mansion on a pensinsula called Hindsholm on the north-east part of Funen, where I live in the major city of Funen, called Odense, located centrally on island. He has been "giving" back large areas of land belonging to the mansion by leaving it alone instead of growing crops. He is also heavily involved in horse breeding.
Junior [Thomas] has been bulding a great and awsome golf resort named Great Northern - [from an economic perspective , simly what appears to be a black hole] - at the town of Kerteminde, about 16 kms from here to the east, south of where his father lives.
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10 minutes ago, Castanza said:
Thanks for sharing, any good books out there on the family?Here you go : Wallenberg - History [Lower part of the webpage]. It's a fascinating story about the industrialization of Sweden, starting in the 1850s, by a very entrepeneurial family, amassing enourmous wealth already in the beginning of the last century. The Wallenberg family considers themselves industrialists [more than investors], and philantrophists.
None of the Wallenberg family members are on any list of wealthy persons, the net worth is encapsuled in now - I think - 16 foundations in total - under family control. All family members generally lay low in the public space.
My family and I have owned INVE A for almost a decade now - good ride, seldom material and serious bad news, easy to hold & doing nothing, but still to watch & follow.
Too boring for some people, who prefer investing in high-flyers, of which some can't fly, or whatever. Like investing in Berkshire, Investor is the place to learn that investing by compounding is the mere concept of waiting.
Compounding made easy by outsourcing, combined with special & attractive tax treatment of Swedish investment holding companies.
Be aware of US PFIC status [mentioned by @Jurgis years ago] - I have had no personal interest in pursuing the correct answer to that question].
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8 hours ago, Castanza said:
Atlas Copco (Stockholm Exchange)
Stumbled upon this company from a podcast. Sounds like something right up WB alley. Large industrial conglomerate that manufactures compressors and vacuum pumps, 50B mktcap, b2b focused, family run for 150 years, shown resilience and has navigated many tough markets.
6 hours ago, Spekulatius said:I suspect Berkshire may love the business, but not the price. Investor AB also has a significant stake and they are not likely to sell.
As mentioned by @Spekulatius,
Atlas Copco is indeed for a material part owned - and thereby for practical purposes controlled - by Swedish Investor AB, listed investment vehicle of the Wallenberg family [FAM AB being the private vehicle].
Atlas Copco constitutes a material part of Investors NAV, and thereby a cornerstone in the Wallenberg Sphere, together with similar ownership positions in ABB, AstraZeneca & SEB.
Just for fun is attached is the Annual Report for the period from the date of foundation of Investor 16th October 1916 to 31st December 1917 containing a specification of the shareholdings at YE 1917. You'll at page 3 see two companies mentioned named "Kopparberg" and one named "Atlas Diesel" - predecessors to Atlas Copco.
I would be surprised, if Jacob Wallenberg [Investors working chairman] and Mr. Buffett did not know eachother, because they are basically in the same business - you could call Investor AB Swedens Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
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4 minutes ago, bizaro86 said:
... Of course, it's risky though, as I've had distressed credit positions go to zero as well, including one that was my largest position at one point.
Thank you for sharing, @bizaro86,
It reads almost unbearable to me, but YMMV.
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2 hours ago, Luca said:
Which names would you throw in?
Take a look at Nordic financial institutions. Some of them are turning into money machines in this interest rate environment [, and some don't, as always], after they have been in the doghouse and under extreme regulation for a long time by the respective national FSAs ["No - don't kiss that customer!"] in the years since the GFC.
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Added to BN [using proceeds from sale of all BAM shares today and basically all available liquidity]. So, back to being fully invested again.
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Sold all BAM shares today [all out], to buy BN using the proceeds + liquidity].
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37 minutes ago, Dinar said:
Tax credits I believe, $1bn worth.
AJG seems to be a shameless tax speculator [, said the the guy who is a reasonable happy camper in a company obtaining USD 2.187 B for 2022 in tax credits related to power production by wind and investments in affordable housing].
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2 minutes ago, redskin said:
BNSF has distributed $50.58 billion to Berkshire since it was purchased in 2009.
To be strictly precise, the dividends from BNSF are not going to Berkshire [the parent], but to National Indemnity [NICO], which is the owner of BNSF.
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1 hour ago, dealraker said:
... Buffett's letters have too greatly disappointed many for 30 years now as apparently he wrote things at some point long ago that stimulated people, their first dose...the one they remember and want more of.
Ahh...the older we get...the better we were! I just can't wait for the next CEO superstar to be called "the next Buffett" and such. Or to watch the obsessed upon tech stock that slightly falls and we all buy more and more of, you know the ones that 20 years later have no returns.
Isn't all of this the same thing? ...
Somehow this post by @dealraker hit a nerve by me.
Suddenly it hit me - like a cub over my head - how convient investing in Berkshire actually is for the long term. [Please read : How convenient I am!]
Investing in conglomerates provide you the opportunity to participate in "creative destruction", ref. Joseph Schlumpeter [and ref. the mentioning in the shareholder letter], while also providing you with option - when things goes wrong & south [perhaps dearly] with a certain investment in the conglomerate, which again provides the opportunity to claim here : "I'm not the dork here, the CEO [of the conglomerate] is." [unless one decide to fire that CEO by offloading the position, that is].
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3 hours ago, ValueMaven said:
Letter was unusually short and lacking detail ... even compared to the prior years...honestly, I was a little disappointed!
Hope there are a bunch of negative headlines and it trades below $300 - which has always been a buy range for me.
The yearly shareholder letters have become shorter and shorter during the last few years for each year passing, yes.
However, I think Mr. Buffett has served his service, and has done it very well over time [, like in : over now many years].
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1 hour ago, gfp said:
Thanks John, that is a good piece on BNSF.
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Since the acquisition, BNSF has distributed $47.7 billion to Berkshire, accounting for all free cash flow plus the net proceeds of additional debt incurred since the acquisition. "
Ravi takes the carrying value of Berkshire's investment in Burlington stock before the acquisition, where I usually used Berkshire's cost basis on that stock (much of which was acquired by selling puts interestingly). I think that is where I got a number slightly below Ravi's $33 Billion.
Warren does private equity! Don't let those PE boys have all the fun
edit: thanks pupil, I knew you could work your terminal magic on this one
@gfp,
Ravi is a hell of guy, and a sworn-in & card holding Berkaholic like you and me, absolutely incredible what kind and amount of work he has shared with everyone interested in it, including me, now since 2009, on his website.
The BNSF dividend numbers discussed above are simply mind boggling. Absolutely incredible what can be achieved over time on the long haul with a business with perhaps not superstar ROE and ROIC, if the price one paid was about right, and it is given the sufficient time to work out and do its compounding magic, in the meantime operated efficiently. [linear thinking and thoughts vs. the concept of compounding over time].
Also here, it's about there are the right buyers and owners [and the opposite], when we talk about utilities, because of ones responsibility for it [as a piece of infrastructure of the society], the owner can't treat it at will. This is already covered elsewhere here on CoBF related to what has happened recently in the United States.
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Mike [ @cubsfan],
Thank you for elaborating your personal position on this calamity here.
Yes, simply put: Christ, how have we as Europeans screwed up on handling this matter over time, looking at the state of the mess as of now. It's indeed very hard to see a sustainable way forward through this whole mess.
However the first step may be very clear for everyone: The loss of lives on both sides has to stop immediately, meaning now. If the opponent disagrees, remove him by use of deadly force, and based on simple logic.
Some times it happens things just stinks:
Until recently, I have been a fan of our former prime minister [In Danish : "Statsminister", translates to "state minister"] Anders Fogh Rasmussen [While PM, also head of EU under the expansion of EU to the east in 2003] [Link to speech : Never war in Europe again ], after those assignments, 2009 - 2014 Secretary General of NATO.
And today : Why even think about i.e. letting a S&P500 company "disturb" in your doings, based on say - its international security matters - when you have the opportunity to bill [dearly] a state in stead, represented by Volodymyr Zelenskyy. [Please see Rasmussen Global]. [Here : Getting paid now trying fix own doings in the past?]
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3 hours ago, cubsfan said:
Pick your side. This promises to be a war of attrition. Russia will get outspent, Ukraine destroyed.
We'll just end up with another North & South Korea for years.
Mike [ @cubsfan],
I think this is the most cynical post from you I've ever read so far from you here on CoBF.
I sincerely hope you're not right.
Personally, I think the determination among European states for this not to happen is greatly underrated. It is about our western way of life, based on basic values shared among others - here, among European people and people living in North America.
Personally, I also think all my fellow american CoBF members could - and should - be proud to have the president you all have on a day like this with the awesome speech he gave today in Warsaw.
SIVB Bank Failure
in General Discussion
Posted · Edited by John Hjorth
I just grabbed the SIVB 2022 10-K to look at bit on it.
From the balance sheet on p. 95:
Held-to-maturity securities:
YE 2022 :
Book value : USD 91.321 B
Fair value : USD 76.169 B [, thereby diff. USD 15.152]
YE 2021 :
Book value : USD 98.195 B
Fair value : USD 97.227 B
Equity :
YE 2022 : USD 16.004 B
YE2021 : USD 16.236 B
Unqualified audit opinion on the 10-K dated February 23, 2023. The bank passed away on March 9, 2023. Just great!
I imagine someone is at the office right now working on stuffing the corps of this into the throat of the CEO of a large bank, ref. @Dalal.Holdings above, - the same style as some produce foie gras!