John Hjorth
-
Posts
4,878 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
14
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by John Hjorth
-
-
14 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
Another prediction - one of the two Prigozhin Wagner) or Putin will not be alive any more a year from now. My guess is that Prighozhin will have an accident, but it could go the other way around.
I would certainly not take the other side on such a bet with you. Which reminds me : "Why not put a contract out in the open on the head of such a person? - One page contract, simple terms, Buffett style? A drop in the sea compared to the US military budget.
-
Thanks for explanation of the backdrop, @Spekulatius,
When I typed what I did, I looked at it, thinking "Something is wrong here, does not look right, and it does not seem to have that punch, resourcefulness and impact I recalled from your line ..."
- Now fixed in my post above!
-
Welcome, @TulipCap!
I think your choice of username is a perfect fit, regarding your nationality, as a reminder!
-
It appears in media here in Europe that the city of Bakmuth has fallen for Ukraine and is now under control by Russian forces by yesterday.
I have been thinking about : "What does that mean?" The city in fact does not exist any more - it is about it's roughly totally destructed by now. [Mike [ @cubsfan ] has been posting about this fact for a long time now in this topic.]
What does is matter? I don't know.
Does any of it makes some kind of sense? I'm not sure, but I personally have a hard time to see some purpose/meaning in much related to this armed conflict by now. Add to that, it's just plain butt ugly.
What's next? I have no idea, but if someone asked I would suggest "It's teatime", like when Asterix was fighting the British.
Talks about creating a list containing damages done Russia to Ukraine, for the purpose of Russia to pay damages at a later moment. "The destruction of the city of Bakmuth" added to list - Check!" - Price? It's just so lame to me. When this is over later, Russia will not be able to pay anything to the Ukraine rebuild for a long time, because it has its own internal challenges. The bill will by necessity have to be picked up by Ukraine allies, meaning migher taxes for them.
-
Thank you, @cubsfan & @Charlie,
To me, just pretty amazing to be presented by the lines of decision making in the Berkshire Insurance sphere like this, involving economic risks of friggin' [estimated] USD 15 B. [Berkshire will be hit by a dent, and will eventually get over it, if the bet goes wrong.] Thinking about that whole process from proposal to accept is just mind boggling.
Where the hell do you place the balls of these gents, when they are no longer among the people alive on Earth? Tjernobyl [J/K]?
-
What are my fellow CoBF board members' opinion / stance on Mr. Buffett giving a "go" to Mr. Jain for taking further USD 15 B in CAT risk related to Florida, as mentioned at the AGM, in what is perceived an El Niño year?
-Thank you in advance for your response.
-
On 5/18/2023 at 10:32 PM, backtothebeach said:
Krugman turning bullish and cancelling the recession.
Icahn running out of steam and can't keep his bearish hedges.
changegonnacome quoting Peter Lynch
Market arguably nearing FOMO mode.
... And all while the talk in this topic with the topic title "Is the bottom almost here" goes on and on and now includes talk about both recessions, inflation, interest rates and markets in FOMO mode, [please take no offense @backtothebeach ], and all such,
I found my self at a new ATH just exactly sniffing to the next million DKK i total portfolio value, while :
1. Being almost fully invested, with no margin,
2. Doing basically nothing, but :
2a. Nagging here on CoBF about Brookfield, Brookfields reporting in various shades, Brookfields complexity & Brookfields opacity, &
2b. Studying the Swedish real estate carnage going on, evolving and unfolding in these days [from the sideline] & at the same time nagging about that too on Twitter to anybody in Sweden on Twitter who seem to be involved and care about it, &
2c. Nagging internally about the stock price of SCHO.CPH and why it does not go up, while buying on/off for dividends received, while I should just be buying, &
3. Being absolutely without any idea of what markets will do tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, and so on, with no clue at all, be it 1 - 5 years or so.
4. Remembering the signature line in @Spekulatiuss profile on CoBF under former software platform : "To be an realist
optimist, one has to believe in miracles". -
Denzel Washington : Penn's 2011 Commencement Address [video on Youtube].
If you want to save some time, you can get to Mr. Washingtons points directly starting the video at the 7:00 mark.
It's about failure, failing, falling forwards, falling backwards and trying. It's a lot about attitude and motivation.
Personally, I think it's great, and I enjoyed it a lot.
-
On 5/11/2023 at 4:14 PM, Gregmal said:
While not a fan of this sort of stuff, if screaming rumors is all it takes to decimate a stock I think it’s probably wise to look at a short selling ban. Seemed pretty cut and dry that everything was stable and then a rumor about exploring a sale pops up and deposits flee. Definitely not a healthy situation.
I personally follow and agree with your thinking and stance about shortsellers taking advantage of others misfortunes by malpractice involving i.e. Main Stream Media and / or Social Media.
Jamie Dimon has been all over the place lately, here as an example :
Then I also listen to this :
So it's complicated.
The total number of US banks has been going down since approx. 1970 or so, so US banking has more or less been in consolidation mode for about 5 decades. Based on my knowledge about European banking, I think it's actually a similar evolution / trend here in Europe, too.
Perhaps - and alone therefore - regional US banks under a certain size thereby simply don't have a future long term as separate and independent legal entities.
I can't see any way to give all banks same conditions as the GSIBs for deposits, because they - the regional banks - can't handle the regulatory burden that rests on the shoulders of the GSIBs. The GSIBs would protest fiercely, if that - same regulatory burdens for all - was not part of such package. It's the problem of finding a balance with regard to giving equal terms and conditions of existence to high and low in an regulated industry, that favours none of both in the industry.
Perhaps that problem does not have a solution.
Also :
-
20 minutes ago, tede02 said:
This is just an anecdotal observation from me, but one thing I'm observing in the suburban area I'm in is there is very little office space available. I'm 15-20 miles outside of Minneapolis and there is not much space available, particularly quality buildings. The pain is really concentrated in the urban areas. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out over the coming 3-5 years. Bargain hunters seem to be seeking opportunities: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-09/new-york-s-empty-office-buildings-lure-rich-families-hunting-bargains.
It's a fascinating phenomen : dumpster diving / container archeology taken to the extremes, all about position sizing for each subject is 0% or 100%, unless one has some partners in crime to share risk and capital outlay with.
-
-
14 minutes ago, dealraker said:
... Working on the big 70 now. Ouch!
To me personally, on the photo, you appear to me to be a fairly fit man, perhaps and likely in the early fifties. Motion, fresh air and all such good habits means a lot.
-
On 5/16/2023 at 3:35 PM, dealraker said:
South west England coastal path this and last year. Best photo though was from last year. Somehow we keep getting near ideal weather with just a couple of days with drizzle - the rest partly sunny as high 40's to low 70's F temps.
Your apperance from that particular photo is like you are approaching seniority, not the age have informed CoBF is actually yours. You look like a sea eagle in refreshing headwind.
-
19 minutes ago, MMM20 said:
I wonder if there's any plan to preserve Buffett's office as a museum after his passing. Free entry for shareholders.
To me personally, that would be morbid. Danish privately held Danfoss has such a thing on top floor at HQ highrise at Nordborg, Als, Denmark, memorating the original founder. No public access though. To me, totally waste of office usage.
One bears memories of the ones who passed away in memory, not by creating museums inside a listed company.
-
Vladimir Putin will eventually meet his fate and it won't be pretty, but I feel quite sure it will be violent. He hasn't even been able to take an European non-NATO member country by brute force, what should be next?
-
Thank you, @Saluki,
From what I have understood, John Maxfield will later release a part two, and when I see it, I'll share it here.
- - - o 0 o - - -
These days, I can't help project this stuff to Swedish banking and the carnage evolving over time in Sweden, with regard to Swedish real estate, with SBB.STO [SBB AB] and CAST.STO [Castellum AB] situated center stage. I'm thinking about who will eventually be the bag holders on that mess, which mess to me is pretty wild, while at the same time fascinating to study and experience play out in real time. I'm pretty sure it is about bad banking and wrong/missing use of the word : "No".
-
Everybody with an opinion on the Royal British family to me should dive in to the following websites for educational purposes :
Official website : The Crown Estate .
Awesome business! releasing yearly financials and I don't know what!, held by the incumbent British ruler, but he can't in any way do with it at his own personal discretion! As just a holder, why would that qualify for God to put him in Hell? Should he abdicate to get in heaven, by that also by logic thereby putting one of his sons in the line for Hell?
-
-
7 minutes ago, Castanza said:
I spend tax dollars on it and it's not my business? Respectfully, your comment doesn't even make sense.
I guess by your standards I should never hear a European on here mention American politics then?
You are messing up your US miniscule voting right of yours related to NATO with the voting rights of other citizens of other nations in Europe. As I already said, this is not relevant for you. And please go somewhere else with this : "I spend tax dollars on it and it's not my business?". It does not matter, unless you decide to run for an office to become a politician, or unless you relocate to Europe for taxation etc. [, in the first case I'll stop reading your posts here on CoBF].
Please get real, and please stop posting stuff, that has no real merit.
-
3 minutes ago, Castanza said:
... Every credible Cold War expert said NATO expansion was a bad idea. from the 90's on NATO went from being primarily defensive to offensive. That is the problem. ...
I seldom participate in these discussions in this topic. I would just say here : You - as a US citizen - should not even have an opinion on that particular matter. It's simply none of your business, if you believe in true democracy.
-
4 minutes ago, cubsfan said:
^^^^ When you have to resort to 55 hyperlinks to debate the merits, I rest my case ...
This made me chuckle, Mike [ @cubsfan ],
However, The seriousness of the matter still stands. I'll here publicly admit, that I am a citizen of a North European state, that did not carry out sufficient due diligence on the matter at hand in the first place.
Today, I personally cringe about it, being unaware of what has been going on and building up for years.
To me personally, it's actually and indeed very embarrassing.
-
I think it's called : "Respect for the elderly".
I did not have it at younger age, I think it started to develop gradually when I turned the 40 mark, now quite some years ago.
I recall specific episodes now adays from the past, where I today cringe over my own behavior back then, by showing lack of respect for the elderly.
Basically, it is also about tolerance between generations in a society. Respect for those who have served their duty.
- - - o 0 o - - -
Perhaps it is also about I'm developing a certain entitlement while I'm getting older myself!
-
Reuters [May 11th 2023] : Britain moves first to supply Ukraine with long-range cruise missiles.
Someone is about to get beaten up while being well into own territory.
-
3 minutes ago, Saluki said:
I used to own shares of a land based oil rig driller called Patterson UTI, and the former CEO/founder was a thousand years old and very sharp. Reminded me of Munger. He said that the problem with the oil industry (the E&P guys) is that they like to drill holes more than they like making money, and that if you give them a dollar, they will drill you a hole, you give them another dollar and they drill you another hole, and that you run out dollars before they every tell you that it's a bad idea to drill another hole.
What a weird kind of libido.
Is The Bottom Almost Here?
in General Discussion
Posted
Talks between americans all along, getting along. New data for today just revealed Germany is in mild / garden version of recession.
I couldn't care less.