Hello all. This post may seem controversial, but I'm hoping it will spur some debate, or at least will show where my thinking is wrong.
On page 2 of the press release, we can see that in Q4 2025 income before tax was $1,756 million. This included $717 million of gains on investments. If you were to exclude these gains (thinking like Buffett here....they wont always be there), you get $1,039 million. Using the same logic for Q4 2024, you get an amount that is double the 2025 amount ($1,677 + 403 = $2,080) (note that the $403 was a loss, which is why it is added back). For the year we see a similar result, although not as dramatic. Adjusted net income before tax for 2025 is $3,289 vs $4,571 in 2024.
I'm usually quite good at analyzing income statements (insurance under IFRS is much more complex) and while I can see some small differences, I am having difficulty coming up with the reason this figure is only half what it was in the year prior quarter, and that the whole year is down by about 30% +/-. I'm thinking that the CR on a discounted basis is part of the story, in Q4 it was 410 bps higher than the prior year, and for the year it was 250 bps higher. Also it appears that the interest rate fluctuations caused a net negative that was larger in 2025 (gains in bonds did not offset financing costs on the float).
Anyone else have any further observations. I'm trying to think about operating earnings (as a long time Berkshire shareholder, longer than Fairfax) vs. gains on investments. It appears to have deteriorated, perhaps masked by the outsized gains on the investment book.
Thanks for reading.