-
Posts
15,180 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
38
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Everything posted by Spekulatius
-
you jump from the GG bridge into the net. Then you jump from the net into the water. Problem solved.
-
Bloomberg gives it a 100% chance of recession in an article based on their economic forecast. Other forecasters are at around 2/3 chance of recession. I think the consensus view at this point is that we will get a recession in 2023.
-
Thanks for sharing. They are predicting 5.4% existing home appreciation for 2023. I take the under on that one.
-
It was a small trading position for me and the stock chart looks parabolic. FWIW, WDAY was a tax loss swap from CRM into WDAY a few weeks ago. Growth looks good, but their SBC and income statement looks disgusting. Sold my remainder CRM position at a loss as well.
-
The indecisive ones can cause pretty bad traffic jams. Some are indecent enough to do their business during commute hours.
-
Movies and TV shows (general recommendation thread)
Spekulatius replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
If you are actor long enough, you end up playing hero or villain in western. -
-
Sold FRFHF in my IRA. WDAY position AH.
-
Yeah, one of my sons teachers (Spanish) was zoom "teaching" from his hang math from what looks like a beach. it definitely wasn't a zoom background. Probably sipping margaritas too. But that doesn't change the fact that the epidemic is long over here (or even Europe) since mid 2021 and in China they keep fumbling along. Autocrats can do their non-sense for a long time, until, they die of natural or unnatural causes. At least Democracies have elections and tend to get rid of lunacies eventually.
-
We know that in the Donbas, the Russians (Wagner mostly) are focusing on Bakhmut which is sort of becoming a modern day Verdun for them. I always find Michael Clarks assessment interesting:
-
@Xerxes is there a B21 unboxing event? If not's it's a missed opportunity. I like to see my tax $ at work.
-
I would at this point state that inflation, crypto and gold are three separate things and there is not direct connection or correlation between each of those. I think it's correct that inflation alone is not going to boost gold but rather negative interest rates (after inflation) will as well as fear of monetary debasement. Crypto is a high beta bet on bubbles. It caters to a different crowd than gold.
-
Most people have gotten COVID-19 at this point but at least for the vaccinated it's just a mostly mild disease for them. This is very different from early on when hospitals were flooded and people actually were dying. Of course part of the difference is that treatment options besides the vaccine have improved (blood thinners, antibodies etc) but the vaccine are part of why this is more of a nuisance than a severe health threat now. As for the Chinese vaccine, some countries like Thailand had both the chinese vaccine and Pfizer/Moderna and people there are voting USA USA. Maybe it's all marketing but the efficacy in some studies I have seen for the Chinese vaccine was underwhelming. FWIW, both my wife and I have not gotten COVID-19 at this point but pretty much everyone else who we know did, including our son. I mentioned this before but the Zero COVID-19 at this point is a Chinese communist party ldogma and it does not matter if it makes sense or not from a health point of view, I think. They can do this a long time, until something breaks (which may or may not be the case with the protests right now).
-
I need this one for my sons room.
-
it differed by state and even by district. Our school was shut down for one semester then reopened for hybrid school in september 2020. The semester after that the school was fully re-opened. I live in a blue state (MA) Chinese lockdowns are hardcore. They famously welded the main doors in apartment building's. You couldn't get on the street and if the policy found you, you got thrown into a detention center. They still do the same thing almost 3 years after the epidemic started right now. It's not even close. I do think the office closures and lack of spontaneous interactions hurts in many ways, some visible and some less so. It has transformed work places, even those that remained open (like mine). Much less meetings and those are are still being held are more online. There are things that get lost when zooming, but it's hard to nail down, imo.
-
This wage inflation spiral is not a given imo but something to watch for. it's exactly what happened in the 70's. the ,labor market in the 70's wasn't weak except in 1974/75 and later in 1979 and workers felt screwed by inflation and salaries tracking inflation, hence the strikes. We have now rumblings bout a railroad strike which could wreck supply chains for bulk goods, cars etc. As will all inflation talk, i can't predict the future but one can look at what's happening and I think 5% salary rises with 7-9% inflation in conjunction with a strong labor market are potent mix that could lead to unwelcome surprises. To avoid this from happening, we need inflation to quickly drop to 4% or less, I think.
-
What is the cost/kg to move payload out of the earth gravity field (which is way higher than moving it into the near earth orbit)? What happens when one of the payloads crashes or even worse explodes in the atmosphere due to rocket failure? It is way safer and cheaper to burry it underground in a geological nonactive and remote area.
-
There are US/western lockdowns and there are Chinese lockdowns. Compared to chinese lockdowns , the western lockdowns are child’s play. Having to wear a mask in a grocery store is not a lockdown, Imo. Then there is the duration. US was eased in summer 2020 and mostly over in spring/summer 2021 when the vaccine was widely available. China still doesn’t have a vaccine that works and apparently plans to go on indefinitely.
-
Buffett/Berkshire - general news
Spekulatius replied to fareastwarriors's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
-
Most crude is produced by dictatorship countries - Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Irak, Kuwait etc. That’s just the way it is and has nothing to be with woke. The world as a whole has no choice to buy it from whoever has the resources. The US is energy self sufficient as whole but that does not protect consumers here from high prices, at least not for products where prices are set by global markets.
-
Just my hunch, if labor market stays reasonably strong and the wage increases continue to trail inflation, we are going to see widespread labor strikes and more unification. That will complete the 70‘s experience. Maybe even the bellbottom jeans come back as well. P. S. Perhaps the strikes are already happening in the way of quiet quitting.
-
And the US blocks all the oil tankers and ships coming in or out from China and the game is over.
-
Pretty good article about the rule of 40 , which is commonly used as a shorthand to gauge the quality of tech business (especially SAAS): https://nongaap.substack.com/p/lord-of-the-operating-models