Spekulatius

@longterminvestor Great summary. I looked at GSHD (discussed upthread) and can’t figure it out either. BRP is a very aggressive rollup and they carry a mountain of debt. BRO also has significant debt , but their income statement and business model seems straightforward. You can add ~20% to their net income (the amortization expense) to get the true cash flow. Maybe I buy just a few shares of that one; it also trades near the 52 week lows. It is probably close to a 6% FCF yield here, based on the numbers I can see, which is not too bad.

LOL, Germany alone will buy ammo for 20B Euro and is building new plants. US is building capacity as well. Russia will run out of conscripts before NATO and Ukraine runs out of ammo.

Looks like the NG prices in Europe are tanking. I think this winter will still be tough, next winter should Be much better and after that the energy crisis is over.

I have added to TSN as well, as well as a few others (averaging down). Just saw the proxy and I am voting against any board member with zero stock. Don't care what else they do. I do this pretty much for all proxys. I also started a position in CRWD.

The energy crisis will persist in Europe no matter the outcome of the war in Ukraine, but I think it will be over in 2024 when enough LNG capacity as well as other sources are online (Norway, Algeria etc.). Putin controlling Europe's energy supply just isn't an option any more - this is over.

Dont forget Japan doubling military spending as well, since their neighborhood good signficiantly more dangerous (North Korea, Russia, China etc). https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pacifist-japan-unveils-unprecedented-320-bln-military-build-up-2022-12-16/ FWIW, i don't think Ukraine will ever get F35 fighters. most likely the Swedish Gripen fighters would be much better (I think) - cheaper, easier to maintain and can start from short airfields. Ukraine will also get loner range weapons than Himars , it's just a matter of time.

The LNG terminal in Wilhelmshafen received its first load. This terminal can import 5% of the German There is a other one going operational soon and a couple more after this later. The NG shortage is not over yet but I think the worst case scenario is pretty much off the table unless the winter continues to be very gold (as it happens to be right now).

Yes, the litigation is another factor. It is very easy to claim injuries and settle with insurance cos after an accident, but this also goes hand in hand with higher accident frequency.

Car accident and fatality rates in the US are ~3x higher than Germany. That directly impacts insurance costs. You also need to pay for the countless uninsured drivers here (it’s a line item in your insurance bill and optional).

@dealraker the exchanges have been terrific business in the 90's and early 2000's but they are becoming more competitive. For one, there are more exchanges and new one a popping up now and then, so barrier to entry is lower now and the whole space has become more competitive. The commissions are on a race to the bottom (or at zero already) so the fees have to be racked in ancillary business (collocation, data feed revenues, analytics) I guess the latter is where MSFT comes in with LSE. I don't think they are as good of a business than they used to be any more.

Sounds like a rapper.

Einhorn was down just 20% even with those mistakes. Crazy Kathie would kill for this return this year.

@Xerxes Sometimes, I think rich people (at least some of them) are the most gullible of all. They probably delegate pretty much everything to other people including basic due diligence to people they trust. So it becomes a network of trust where everyone hopes that the person they trust has done some research, but turns out often enough nobody does. That's how people like Madoff, Holmes, Epstein and SBF get as far as they came committing very brazen cons. Of course some rich are probably pretty good at sniffing out BS but I think a lot of them lose their instinct or never had it.

It is complicated. I also said "ideal case" we and both know that ideal cases almost never happen. I have no idea how the people in Crimea or Donbas would vote, but I know that just because they speak Russian, does not necessarily imply they want to be Russian citizens. Perhaps they prefer to be a neutral state but that's even less likely.

I have no idea and don't make the rules. In the ideal case, the people living there got a say (referendum) and decide where they feel they belong to. Same in Donbas.

Bought a starter in AMZN and added just a little to BX.

Way to early for investment angles imo. One thing to keep in mind is that nuclear fusion will likely also create nuclear waste. while fusion does not uses radioactive fuel (unlike nuclear power), the output is lot's of gamma radiation and neutrons, both of which make the surrounding material radioactive over time. So while it likely creates less radioactive byproducts than nuclear power, there will be some and they might be harder to deal with, depending on the reactor layout.

Don't worry about Putin saving face - he can stand tipsy with champagne in his golden hall blurting out unscripted whatever he wants. If need be, he can sell why he lost Crimea too to his fellow Russians , if indeed this is what happens. They may not believe the story, but they will pretend to.

@Castanza I agree with @rkbabang here - net energy gain is a technological milestone, but it's not really a commercial breakthrough. I think we are decades away from using fusion to generate meaningful energy and many technical hurdles are still ahead.

@Luca I can imagine this or that but Xi is in power for life and he believes in communism. So I think that’s what we are going to get from China. Communism is not good for shareholder returns. I don’t think it’s much more complicated than that.

Who says that crypto is safe from let's say a majority attack? It's just 14 years old construct and has never really been tested against a determined player with huge resources or a few of them working together. Once a player has control of the network , they can double spent coins and wreck the integrity of the blockchain. If you really think that a government seizes all assets, could it be stopped from wrecking crypto that way? I don't know but I don't think it safe to assume that crypto is safe from an attack from a player like China, the US, EU or even few of them working together.

I see this the same way. A truck with a huge generator should be a hybrid because if you build a truck with big generator, you might as well use it to drive the car (via electricity/ batteries and an electric motor).

@Cod Liver OilHow fast did your wife drive? I have gotten speeding tickets too in the past but typically with the driving school remediation, there is no premium increase. I think you just need to go a n insurance broker and let them find the best insurance for you. Bundle up with homeowners and umbrella and i found that i could always get better rates than Geico.

Why would the US sent patriots to Yemen to help the Houthi? The Houthi are not our friends and neither are the Saudis. In fact if I read this correctly, the Houthis are loosely allied with Iran, so if the US sends Patriots to Yemen, they could end up in Iranian hands. if there is a conflict to stay way from, that sure looks like one. Ukraine is an entirely different case, imo.

I think that's the way I see it too.