Spekulatius

How does he get 3 million barrels more? Is he going to set up a national state energy co to produce those? Budget cut from 7% from 3% means we we going to get a nice recession, so not good for any stock.

The German government is gone. Somebody is paying attention. The election outcome in February will be telling either way it goes. A strong mandate for the CDU would be progress. If votes go to the left and right splinter parties then not so much. Stocks are getting cheap there. Low expectations are one way you can see positive surprises.

Trump is going to cause a lot more volatility. The sleepy days of the Biden admin are gone.

Somebody check on Tepper if he is still OK. Or maybe he sold into the surge he caused.

Arnault deserves to have a spot in one of those painted glass windows. I think in the past, the artist often snug in their sponsors into the art work somewhere. Do i you ask yourself - whomps the guy standing next to king X and Saint Y, what his significance? Well he may just be the guy who paid for the whole thing.

BNTX and MRNA trading around 1.2x tangible book (which is mostly cash). Both have products on the market and significant pipelines. Perhaps too significant for MRNA as they may have trouble financing it, but what do I know. Seems cheap though.

Inflating it away doesn’t work any more if everyone hates inflation. Inflation takes a bit to be noticeable and most people haven’t noticed it before 2021 . It‘s like touching poison ivy, first time it itches a little and the second time it sucks. Trumps policies are inflationary all over the place - high deficits, less immigration, tariffs. The current market assumes he can do this without negative externalities. Thats a brave bet to make.

That is Kreminal. Maybe Putin lobs ballistic missiles because he runs of cruise missiles?

Pretty much. If nuclear black mail works, it will work too on the US as well and North Korea and Iran are surely are watching. Putin changing its nuclear doctrine for example is laughable. Putin could have triggered a nuclear strike at any time already. He pretty much has absolute power. The only doctrine there is that Putin does whatever he wants in Russia. Its the west job to prevent him from doing whatever he wants elsewhere.

So a Chinese vessel with a Russian captain destroyed the fiber optic link to Finnland. Deserves some response, imo.

How so. If Putin thinks he is winning, there will be no settlement, I am pretty sure about they. This is a gift to a Trump. He can keep the practice in place - he doesn’t have to do anything, or he can reverse it.

Maybe the wrong thread, but Porsche (the operating business, not the Holdco) trades now at 12x earnings. Balance sheet is clean with very little net debt. Maybe Arnault will take a look as this VW/ PAH /P911 construct gets ever more ludicrously valued.

Yes, personal expenses are rising much faster than revenues it seems. Also, they had Zero incentive fees this year so far. To make the $1.5/ share earnings target, they need to generate some incentive fees. I think it’s a worthwhile but there are some question marks. An improving economic situation in Latam would not hurt either.

Thank you for sharing. Looks attractive to me after my very cursory review. I actually like LatAm here, the market is very depressed and valuations accordingly are low. I will look into this one more.

RIP, couldn’t keep the balance I guess: https://x.com/billbrowder/status/1858411231180124324?s=61&t=E8YgOMPn5yLNAJ40xrQKFQ

Well, the labor crunch is probably permanent because the mortality rate of these recruits is very high.

Is this even a puzzle? The fly got one hour before the cyclist meet each other (20 miles apart and the relative speed is 10+10miles) and its speed is 15mph, so the fly flies 15mph in the hour it has. All the other info is irrelevant. It’s actually interesting how you can confuse people by giving them irrelevant information. It works especially well in finance and politics.

Nukes are the only way to deter a threat from other (Putin’s) nukes. I do agree leadership is a huge problem. Germany is going to have snap elections in February 23 and who knows what his brings. Best outcome is that the CDU gains ground and get as mandate to do things differently. I am not terribly optimistic about this outcome. These multiple party coalitions can’t get anything done, that’s for sure.

This decreasing bang for the buck does not bode well for future spending. OpenAI in particular has been spending like a drunken sailor with not much revenue to show for it. We will probably see layoffs on this sector within 12 months if this story turns out to true.

The shareholder letter fails to even mention the shareholders or shareholder value. There is (imo) no other take than that shareholders don’t count and it’s clear that they are screwed or sacrificed for the greater good, just the Hero in that hero movie.

They are clearly the best run of these government software project companies (SAIC is also down some) but the recent surge was “out of character” for CACI in terms of the usual valuation bands. Even now, it seems to be at the upper range ar 1.4x EV/revenues . I think it’s a buy at 1.2x EV. Of course this is a very simplistic analysis if we’re to even call it even that. I do agree this DOGE seems massively overrated as well as all the other Trump winner/loser trades.

Just saw this in my substack feed from John Hempton. This is what China‘s largest bank wrote in their shareholders letter. You really can’t make this up. : https://substack.com/home/post/p-151735409?source=queue For reasons I do not need to discuss I find myself reading the annual report of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China - the world’s biggest bank. Sure there are greater than 6 trillion of assets (in USD). I just thought you should see how it is managed. This is a direct quote from the Chairman’s letter: No further comment is required. John

I am adding to STNE. Also a tiny bit of CNC

I think the two are different sides of the same coin. They are conservative, cost conscious send they know their customers. They probably should be more aggressive. The bank is owned by individuals and the CEO owns quite a few shares , although he has reduced his position. I think most individuals whomped shares are descendants from the founding families. https://www.lodinews.com/news/article_5809c75a-cbdd-11e5-a619-bf990c8d57e8.html

Same here. Started a bit higher and added today. PE around 8x, almost ~5% buyback of outstanding and ~20% growth in BRL. Who said there were no bargains any more. STNE is cheaper (in relative terms) than it was last year when I bought it. These Brazilian stocks are very much driven by macro which typically is expressed in exchange rates changes.