Spekulatius

Reduced $BTI today. It did alright for me.

What is interesting is how many stocks are up today’s while the broad indexes are down. This is because the market has been so narrow lately and it was about AI and nothing else. Even some semi stocks are up- those that play into industrial and have little to do with AI like NXPI, ADI etc.

The correct solution of course to look at what the Chinese have done, lese from it and then improve it with their next iterations. Tech progress should be deflationary mot inflationary. Same happens with Telecom where WDM and other technologies made data transfer dirt cheap. The beneficiary were those companies that build upon that foundation not the Globalcrossing, Worldcom , JDS Uniphase, Lucents or Nortels. NVDA will be fine but maybe AI chips aren’t 80% gross margins but 60% gross margin business going forward. It’s not the end of the world.

Another couple percent down and sales for booze, cigs and adult diapers are going to rip. There is always a bull market somewhere. European stocks also deserve another look, since it’s a safe AI free zone.

Everything that is related to AI Capex seems to be the main loser. As far as big tech is concerned , DS questions the big tech dominance of this field as well as their investments so far, so they are losers as well. Its good for everyone else though, especially users of AI and those that want to build applications on existing LLM’s.

Could well be, but I am asking myself that even if true, does it matter? Deepseek shows that you can create their own LLM that runs efficiently build upon another LLM that is freely available. So it seems that you need less NVDA chips and datacenters either way and also that any nation even target of export controls can do so. Also, the allegation that they trained on ChatGPT isn’t proven. And yes, they can likely raise billions.

There is no such thing for pretty much any service. Nobody pays the same price for a car service, to get their lawned mowed, their toilet repaired and so forth. I do agree the pricing variances in Health care are extreme.

That’s a very tricky sector to make money in. Why not get your contrarian itch buy buying something that has a good LT record of value creation and trades at lower than historical multiples. Stocks like ELV, REGN, HSY or MDLZ come to my mind if you restrict yourself to US stocks. I stead of energy, I would get myself acquainted with growth sectors like software, semiconductors, tech (in general) or even industrial or infrastructure that LT likely lead to better returns than trying to pick a bottom with energy stocks that mostly go on cycles.

I think so, with investing it’s chasing what other people do, FOMO ( am psychological fallacy). I think you have to have a system or framework. Even if it’s just invest in index funds or doing 60/40.

Since when is going long consensus that everyone agrees upon making money when investing?

I posted this in the joke thread, be sure hre presents his content in a funny and cynical way, but the more I think about, the more I view this as really good advice. There are many more episodes in his channel that are worth watching, not all of them relationship related. this fellow is a hoot and a smart one at that:

This channel showed up in my YouTube feed and is hilarious and his advice isn’t pretty good , imo:

@vinod1 I disagree. Take Visa and Mastercard for example. Why do Visa and Mastercard exist and why are they US companies? The biggest reason is that the US has substantial control over the financial (by means of the US $ , but also the payment systems, interbank transfer etc). So while they may not benefit much from all that extra spending, they owe the very existence to the might of the US dollar and the control of the international financial system. The US share of the total global GDP is ~26% but the US equity market cap is almost 60% if the global equity market cap. why do you think this is case? All due to better managements? I’t part of the equation but can’t explain all of it. anyways, the net result is that market valuations are much higher, which leads to lower cost of capital which allows to higher investments and faster growth. It’s a nice flywheel and we better hope it keeps spinning. By the way, an Oligarchy is not good for economic growth long term. In a crisis, they often fall to pieces.

Looks like Deepseek needs roughly 1/10 of the resources while yielding similar results. This means we need 1/10 of the chips, 1/10 of the datacenters, 1/10 of the power. C ’mon, we outsource all that stuff from China, since they are so good at it and save another 50%!. It’s not like this has never been done before.

I very much agree. Any other country that tries to run similar high MMT like deficits gets punished by capital markets severely (Brazil, France, UK) and has to revert to austerity. The US can do this because of the twin factors of reserve currency status and the largest most liquid capital markets (which are tied to each other so you could say it’s really one factor). Another thing worth watching is this one:

It probably a good idea to stock up on foreign whiskeys, tequila, wines etc now before the Trump tariffs are coming. I went to a Total wine store to get some Californian wines initially but there was a fellow fici Count free tastes of mostly French red ( Cabernet , Pinot noir) and he let me test them against Californian one as well. The French won that one and were cheaper as well. Might all cost 25% more next more next month so get it while you can.

How would you even model real estate defaults? So many idiosyncratic factors go into the default rate. I think the Japanese banks have huge NIM upside of the BofJapan raises interest rates which slowly seems to be happening. Of course you have to look at the maturity of their existing loans and bonds which I have no idea how to do.

I would pick a spot between Malaga and Marbella for vacation. Best to go is probably early fall when the water will be warm like a bathtub. It has been along time, but ai fondly remember Fuengirola and the bodegas around there. The villages in the mountains are also great, if you got enough of the beaches.

Solid report from FMCB: https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FMCB/news/Farmers--Merchants-Bancorp-FMCBReports-Record-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2024-Financial-Results?id=465416 Some leadership changes were announced the last few weeks. Something to keep an eye on.

If they are smart they developed a digital blockchain based USD or treasuries with functionally like the ability taxes, earn interest. Why hop on Bitcoin train if you can issue your own? If they put it on the blockchain, so it becomes untraceable (or all sort, similar to Bitcoin) than I think a lot of countries or individual want to own it. There a risk of money laundering etc, but if you have that with Bitcoin as well so might as well do this as a blockchain based digital USD which strengthens the status of the USD as reserve currently.

Saved that one for later. Sounds like something a Confucius taught or the Bible should.

I know quite a few people who have had financial issues due to health insurance. My wife was one of them before/ when I met her. I think with divorce, it is probably cause of financial ruin. You will not go broke on medical expenses in Europe, or at least not Germany, that’s for sure. Medical care is also way cheaper and while care in the US is better if you have good insurance or a lot of money, it probably is better in Europe for the average Joe. I say that as someone who has lived in both systems

What’s next - Bolivia? They have got elections in 2026, I think.

He will have a hard time to get these countries to use tariffs because they would essentially put money from one pocket to the other - they are buying mostly oil. This can’t be about tariffs , it has to be about sanctions, where we make it more difficult for rh Russians to sell their oil. They still can do it somehow but would sell it way cheaper at huge discount which means less money to run the war. In the end, it’s all about money. If Trump can force China to trade less with Russia than that’s great, but I don’t think it would be easy to make them buckle. Using the Russian assets against them would be a gutsy move and again something that Biden didn’t do in his half assed ways. Those funds could go a long way for an Ukraine to finance the war against Russia. You can’t win a war don’t half assed moves against a determined adversary like Putin. Any time he is escalating like he does with involving North Korea, you need to be escalating too.

Sanctions work as they make Russia economically worse over time. Any country that is under severe long term sanctions has been slowly train wrecked - Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, Cuba. It’s certainly helps that they are run by nutcases a well. Russia is bigger so it will take longer but they are inevitably heading down the same path. Without an economy, a country can’t wage war any more so slowly but surely, Russias ability will be flushing itself down the toilet. Tariffs against Russia is just plain nonsense at this point , what is Trump even thinking? Trade with Russia is close to zero and 100% on zero is till zero. He is got to do better than that.