Spekulatius

Sector rotation. They were hot last year, this year not so much. Don’t ask me why. There are some pockets where COVID-19 hangover exists from lower demand. Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccines are one example, but it also effects testing equipment and some clinical research business.

Added a bit to LSXMK and more to $BTI. Also a starter in $PKBK (cheap and very profitable NJ microcap bank with some hair).

Todays ad for me. I don't even want to find out where this leads to: Edit I swear this thing is mocking me now:

I am not sure where BHE is held, but suspect it’s at the insurance level as well. However, if it is were possible to spin BHE it would make the least sense because BHE has so much depreciation that they have a negative income tax rate, meaning they reduce taxes for the rest of Berkshire as long as they belong to the conglomerate and would lose those tax credits if they were stand-alone. I think BHE is actually the least likely part to be spun off. I think the easiest so spin off would be the large minors stakes that also present some deadwood like KFC or maybe even KO. They are not controlled by Berkshire, so Berkshire could sell them off, as ai think they are more or less sentimental holdings in WEB coffee can portfolio and unlikely to outperform in the future,

Why are you so bullish on TV? Looks like the merger with MegaCPO is dead for the time being. (FWIW- I hold MegaCPO shares)

I have not clicked on anything, despite the tempting displays. The ad AI definitely watches what you are typing or elsewhere looking for. Ever since I have researched and purchased a car, i get bombed with car ads in youtube for example, but I have never seen a car ad here on this site.

The bad joke above aside, the ad targeting here on this side really blows. I don't know why the algo here thinks that I am target audience for female swimsuits. I would have expected some ads from Ken Fisher here or crypto scams. For while, I did get an ad for mail order brides from Ukraine, which at least makes some sense based on keywords that were discussed here in one thread.

Tough choices. I vote the deep discounted one on the right:

Could be currencies - if you do have foreign stocks

Actually, it was never that easy to get money out of China even years ago. I know this, the company I worked for years ago had the issue talking to an accountant I knew. You had to apply at some sort of government authority who would be take their sweet time. There was possibly some corruption involved to grease some wheels as well, The Chinese Yuan is not a freely convertible currency either.

I think Germany for once is ramping up ammunition production significantly. Rheinmetal alone builds two new plants - one in Hungary and one in Germany if I recall correctly. I don’t think producing artillery shells is that hard. It’s the more complex stuff like smart ammo (Excalibur) that has complex supply chains and takes longer.

The terminal value question is a good one and I can’t answer either. I think the position that Berkshire has was established by T&T not Buffett.

There is something for everyone, HR, supply chain management, production planning, engineering, general management. Endless possibilities.

This a WW2 manual Joe to do duct sabotage from the CIA. It is free are and can be an obtained at Gutenberg.org. Found this through a tweet from Elon Musk. Part of it read like a corporate training manual for new employees: https://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/26184/pg26184-images.html

LOL, Roach motel: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/mark-mobius-china-investing-capital-restricting-outflows-markets-strategy-jinping-2023-3

You are right. That said, the deal was announced on March 2022 when the market was quite choppy due to the war in Ukraine. So I think Berkshire benefited somewhat from this. On another note, I wonder if LSXMK could be attractive to Berkshire, once they clean up the structure. They own already 20% of it and are the largest shareholder. I think owning Siri would be attractive to Berkshire as it fits right in their wheelhouse in terms of the business they tend to like. This could happen if a Malone decides to call it quits.

The US will be fine, there is competition between states and colleges for once. However some colleges may ruin their reputation over time. I call out Yale as the Ivy league University that is most likely to do so. I think a College like University of Chicago may run circles around them in ten years.

Berkshire’s sweet spot are private business where the owner want to keep everything the same and not necessarily looks for he highest bidder. I think it’s unlikely Berkshire buys public company because the Board needs to shop it around and Berkshire does not participate in auctions. The only way I can see them buying a public company is when the market is in distress and the shareholders or controlling owner want to sell quickly. Otherwise, somebody else is going to bid more.

Furthering diversity and giving every candidate a fair shot are two very different things.The diversity angle will lead to the diversity candidate (per the institutions guidelines) getting preferred over the more capable one. Think Hispanic gay women candidate getting preferred over almost any white straight male candidate because she ticks right diversity boxes. Looks like a total racket to me. Some colleges have jumped the shark here very far, like Yale who decided to drop out of comparison ranking for good reasons most likely.

I doubt any of these lab grown brains/ computers are going anywhere. To imprecise, vulnerable to environmental factors and if you turn them off, they die. These are academic exercises.

I suspect Berkshire may love the business, but not the price. Investor AB also has a significant stake and they are not likely to sell.

Howard marks got rich running a business dealing with distressed credit. But it is a good point that distressed credit can deliver equity like returns so that is one way to get rich as well. The opportunities there are quite infrequent though, so I think it's really hard to get rich on distressed credit alone.

Has anyone ever seen a bond investor getting rich? I haven’t , except money manager like Bill Gross, but of course they owned a business not bonds directly. Bonds are a wealth preservation vehicle (and have their place for this purpose) not a way to build wealth.

Simply, because I studied it more. AJG will be my second choice. I doubt I go beyond that. On AJG specifically, I don’t quite understand the clean energy investment that seem to be carried of the balance sheet. They are probably not material , but I wonder why they are in this business at all.

Yes, I recall that flight with a Cessna, but back then he was supposedly discovered and tracked fairly early, the military bureaucracy just couldn’t decide what to do with him. They could have shot him down, but didn’t. These drones however are slower than WW1 planes, there no stealth whatsoever and they can penetrate Russian air space 500 km deep apparently.