Spekulatius

1) Insurance brokers $AJG, $BRO etc. 2) Health insurers $UNH, $ELV etc. (they need to hold some capital, but very little) 3) Distribution business ($WSO etc) - very little fixed assets, some working capital that is mostly balanced out by accounts payable None of these Fangs can match the capital light business model of the above. 4) I could even add the Title insurers. They need to hold some capital, but the claims are ridiculously low, so they can ramp up volume like crazy when refinance activity surges and make a lot of dough. This is cyclical though and I am not sure it meet criteria for "great", but in my opinion it's pretty good. $FNF, $FAF etc. 5) Exchanges. Zero capital requirement basically, except some cash $CME, $NDAQ, $ENX, Not that great iof a business than they used to be, due to fees going to zero. 6) $V, $MA -payment rails. I almost forgot about those because they are so obvious. Best business model of all time probably.

There is a lot of stuff under the hood of Porsche holding so to speak. If these guys get serious about value creation, there is a lot of upside, imo. The recent Porsche 911 IPO at least suggests they are trying.

100 baggers are nice - but can AMZN be an 100 bagger with a $1.1T market cap? That stock is up ~25% on no news basically and it doesn't really have earnings either. If you have a 100 bagger candidate let me know. FWIW - i did buy PAYC few days ago. I like it better than AMZN. Profitable and tech build in Omaha. One of the best run companies that I have come across for years, but also trading at a bit more than 10x sales., so not a 10 or 100 bagger candidate either.

Sometimes the thesis indeed doesn't matter and it's just liquidity driving the market up. Why not take advantage of it, as you see it? We are not talking about 8% moves either, but 25%+ moves on little news. A 25%+ move in a couple of month a great IRR. if you can do it in a tax deferred account there is no tax issue either. Maybe the prices come back again - and you get a second shot at it - you never know.

He wasn't always stoic - he had his wife Faustina killed. Netflix has a series about Rome and the first 2 episodes deal with the tail end of Aurelius reign.

I added a bit of $CASH.

Prosus minus Tencents looks below average to me.

My taxable portfolio looks as follows. My non taxable are a bit different with more foreign and dividend stocks (BTI, PM, CPT, ESS, MNPP, PBR-A etc) Symbol Description Portfolio Weight AAP ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC 1.68% GOOGL ALPHABET INC CAP STK CL A 4.57% AMZN AMAZON.COM INC 1.57% ELV ELEVANCE HEALTH INC COM 3.33% BTI BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO LVL II ADR EACH REP 1 ORD GBP0.25 BNY 1.99% BRO BROWN & BROWN INC 1.08% CBBI CBB BANCORP INC COM 1.49% CVS CVS HEALTH CORPORATION COM USD0.01 1.89% CABO CABLE ONE INC COM 1.49% COF CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP COM USD0.01 1.62% CNC CENTENE CORP 2.55% CMCSA COMCAST CORP 3.59% CPNG COUPANG INC CL A 0.49% DDOG DATADOG INC CL A COM 0.77% DPSGY DEUTSCHE POST ADR 3.64% DFS DISCOVER FINANCIAL SERVICES 0.61% EACO EACO CORP 0.97% FRFHF FAIRFAX FINL HLDGS LTD SUB VTG ISIN #CA3039011026 SEDOL #2566351 0.86% SPAXX FIDELITY GOVERNMENT MONEY MARKET 13.23% FNF FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL FNF GROUP COM USD0.0001 0.83% FISV FISERV INC 4.5% GEF/B GREIF INC 4.81% JXN JACKSON FINANCIAL INC COM CL A 3.46% KKR KKR &CO INC COM 1.63% KRT KARAT PACKAGING INC COM 0.63% LEVI LEVI STRAUSS &CO NEW CL A COM STK 1.42% LSXMK LIBERTY MEDIA CORP DEL COM C SIRIUSXM 0.98% LIMAF LINAMAR CORP COM ISIN #CA53278L1076 SEDOL #2516022 1.46% MTB M &T BANK CORP COM USD0.50 0.58% MSGS MADISON SQUARE GRDN SPRT CORP CL A 2.49% MNPP MERCHANTS NATIONAL PROPERTIES INC 0.48% CASH PATHWARD FINANCIAL INC COM 1.0% NTDOY NINTENDO CO LTD UNSP ADS EACH REP 0.25 ORD SHS 3.76% ORI OLD REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORP 4.34% ONEXF ONEX CORP SUB VTG ISIN #CA68272K1030 SEDOL #2659518 0.73% PAYC PAYCOM SOFTWARE INC COM USD0.01 0.88% PBR/A PETROLEO BRASILEIRO ADR REPSTG 2 PRF PFD 0.59% POAHY PORSCHE AUTOMOBIL HLDG SE UNSPONSORD ADR PFD 1.62% PSMT PRICESMART INC 1.36% PUBM PUBMATIC INC COM CL A 0.64% RBA RITCHIE BROS AUCTIONEERS COM ISIN #CA7677441056 SEDOL #2345390 1.18% LUV SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO 1.73% TSM TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING SPON ADS EACH REP 5 ORD TWD10 2.2% TPB TURNING PT BRANDS INC COM 1.32% USB US BANCORP 4.31% V VISA INC 0.89% VNT VONTIER CORPORATION COM 2.3% ZS ZSCALER INC COM 0.45%

JST is a pretty good business, but I would like to buy it cheaper.

Sold MSGS in my tax deferred account.

@Aurel RIP Leoni: https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/sanierungskonzept-leoni-aktie-fast-85-prozent-im-minus-leoni-soll-nach-kapitalschnitt-von-der-boerse-genommen-werden-12305476

He lost all his money on Irish banks, but this was a tiny bet. His biggest bets are all based on downside protection much more so than on perceived upside. He was also wrong on IBM, but lost not a lot of money there, as a percentage of his investment - the bigger loss was time value of money. Maybe that's the thing that allows concentration, at least for me in the few times, i took a large position it was mainly because I saw very little chance of a permanent impairment.

I agree. When has appeasement ever worked against a despot like Putin? I can’t think of a single time. Now that it’s clear he sprung into a bear trap in an Ukraine, this is the best opportunity to defang him and Russia. Never let a mistake of your opponent go to waste.

Drops can happen with anything. I remember when SHEL (then Royal Dutch) "lost" more than 20% of their proved reserves in one day in 2004. the stock tanked big time and had a hard time to recover. SHEL had goosed their reserve numbers for years at it turnout out. https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2004-116.htm This happened to the second largest oil and gas companies in the world.

I would argue that 20 stocks in the same "Zeitgeist" bucket is not really diversification. this is essentially what happened with the Motley Fool portfolios. MF recommend 20 holding at least stocks, but all the 20 stocks they recommended in 2020/21 were very similar (unprofitable and speculative growth) and tanked the same way. This is not diversification, this was a highly correlated bet. Saga did the same thing they had 7 stocks, but it was basically one highly correlated bet. If you go with let's say 20 stocks you should make sure they represent different sectors of the economy and may even different geographical areas / countries. All stocks being in China in my opinion is very very risky for example.

Annual report is out - again dropped during market hours. Not that it matters because the stock usually does not trade: https://www.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/financial-report/362972/content Results seem OK - trust revenue is up. Income is down a little and they have some market losses on their muni bonds. Looks like they bought back 288 shares. That's it - see you next year.

I think the help to Ukraine is coming from a different bucket than the defense budget. You can also see that it's likely that Ukraine is going to get fighter planes. the Poles sent the Mig-29 first and later they get the good stuff. A year in, Ukraine is going to be the largest and best equipped army in Europe coming from and army that was using old Russian surplus mostly. Energy exports to Europe in the toilet with little lasting damage to the economy. Well done Putin.

These were all "Zeitgeist" story stocks and then the Zeitgeist shifted. GDRX was one I tried my luck with a small starter position, but after a grocery partner left (later came back) it was an indication to me that the moat wasn't as strong as perceived. Then there also was a shift to free to use to a subscription model, which to me seemed to have questionable customer appeal. Anyways, I sold this with a 15% or thereabout loss and never looked back. These guys held on to losing bets much longer.

Saga partner is a concentrated growth fund that had phenomenal performance in 2020 and subsequently lost it all: https://www.sagapartners.com/_files/ugd/3b0d6d_ce16f046c4524c08893864f3ce87152c.pdf just one example where one bad year wiped out many years of market beating performance. They stopped making their letter public as well.

This assumes that they pay nothing for deposits and that loan losses remain low in this scenario. Both assumption are unlikely to hold.

Kind of an interesting world where risk free interest rates are at 10% and rents don’t rise, while at the same time BAC gets 10%+ on loans while still paying nothing on deposits. I would like to see what loan losses in this world would be like and why deposits rates don’t rise or how Mr Market and depositors look at the ~ MTM losses of their ~$880B in 2.3% yielding debt securities in addition to MTM on fair value of their loans. My guess is that at 10% the MTM loses on their security will be many times the equity ($172B tangible equity), so technically we would be look at a zombie bank here.

PSMT isn't cheap right now, i wouldn't buy it. It a quite well run retail outfit operating in a tough neighborhood though.

Yes, the current banking crisis adds to monetary tightening - perhaps 25-50 bps. It will probably more so for a commercial real estate borrower than the average consumer.

Self funded or not, META spent more than 25% of the revenues last year on Capex. This is definitely not Capex light. Google was a bit higher than 10%. a typical steel company spends less than 10% of the revenues, but they are also lower margin business, so not Capex/Revenues my not be the right metric. Most industrials have become quite Capex light in terms of business model and spent less than 5% of the revenues on Capex and often less than 3%. Capex light business models are virtually any software company (unless they build swanky office buildings), $V, $MA and most wholesale/distribution business. Apple also also surprisingly Capital light with only ~2.5% Capex spent/ revenues which is less than any other FANG.

Munger has a way way higher risk tolerance than Buffett. Buffett also took some chances early on, but never to the same extend than Munger did. Buffett also was actively involved as a control investor when he bet big. He left up as little as possible to chance and other people. I don’t think Munger ever did that either.