Spekulatius

I think the value of this thread could be to create a framework what to invest in rather than buy or sell everything. I mentioned banks here before, because I believe they would benefit from the higher rate for longer framework 9after getting dinged in a pot. recession). maybe European banks become investible as Europe goes from a negative interest regime (which is toxic to banks) to a couple percent risk free rates Energy could be one of the drivers of inflation for some time, so it may make some sense to put some money in energy related securities. Maybe a higher bond / or MM allocation makes sense for some people. Those are much more interest questions than where the SP500 might go and when or buy or sell everything right now because XXX may happen.

TSM is the biggest headscratcher. He is also getting out of the ATVI arbitrage it seems. https://whalewisdom.com/filer/berkshire-hathaway-inc

Looks like another escalation from Putin - meddling in Moldova potentially. Of course Putin will deny this - just like he denied the “Green men” in Crimea 2014 were Russian mercenaries :

$EEM is for rookies because the fees are too high. $VWO from Vanguard is roughly equivalent and much cheaper (0.08% vs 0.68% fees). This 0.6% fee differential does add up:

Higher for longer is good for banks. Solid deposit franchises will generate sustainably higher NIM in an environment with bonds at 4-5% than they did with ZIRP. I don't think it's priced in bank stocks for the most part. A soft landing shouldn't be that much of a problem on the credit risk side. That's directly actionable, not just macro chitchat.

I think the bond market can forget about H2 2023 rate cuts. This will become obvious over the next few month.

This documentary is pretty good, not just the part with Bolton.

I sort of went a little but down a Frank Zappa trip and really started to dig it. Zappa was what the Inteligentsia was listening to in the late 70‘s and I never really understood what it’s about. I did watch a documentary about him and then it became clear to me that he is more of a composer than a R&R musician. I like the mid 70‘s period the most - Aprostrophe, Overnite Sensation, One size fits all, Hot rats… Or the greatest album title ever “Sheik Yerbouti” (especially considering it was released in 1979).

I don’t think he would at this point. He only knowingly went into asbestos when the extend of liabilities were better known after Manville went through bankruptcy. The same could happen with 3M. I personally would not touch 3M stock with a 10 foot pole at this point.

The main reason that Putin is reducing crude production is to reduce the sky high differential to other regular crudes. Increasing the overall crude prices is a secondary effect, but also welcome of course. Ironically, the high differential have been benefiting Russias economic allies China and India the most, as they have been benefitting from being the only buyers left for Rusdian oil and were able to buy Russian at very low prices. So China and India will get hurt more than the rest of the world because less Russian crude supply will mean lower differential in addition to higher prices overall. I do think Putin can do this for a while , but there are problems with shutting in production , as field can be also impossible to start up again. I don’t think China and India will like this move either, so similar to the NG embargo, he plays for short term benefit but damages his position longer term.

Looks like the balloon was indeed a spy / surveillance balloon. The antennas arrays alone indicate so, since a weather balloon would likely have other sensors like pressure equipment, maybe infrared cameras, temperature sensors. https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-balloon-carried-antennas-other-equipment-to-gather-intelligence-u-s-says-11675953033?mod=business_trending_now_article_pos1

I think the thought is that it does not matter why the yield curve is inverted, it only matters that it is inverted. There are always different reasons why the yield curve is inverted and while the Fed is a player in this, they don’t necessarily control the bond market. However regardless of the reason , so far the yield curve inversion always has predicted a recession so far.

I had a hunch that the Bing ChatAI combo is making some waves. I also read that Google's AI investor day was a bust. Stock was flat when I reduced and then started to tank. It seems a bit of an overreaction quite frankly.

I think this is a bit nonsense. Your decision may have been a reasonable one, if you assume that Steve jobs was necessary for Apple to succeed. However, once you sold your shares, the mistake may have been that you did not continue to track the company. Apple shares trade every day and you could have bought back the shares, if you came to the conclusion that Tim Cook is a great CEO 5 minutes later, 5 days later, 5 month later or 5 years later. A buy or sell decision is easily reversible (yes sometimes there are tax consequences).

Reduced GOOGL a bit premarket.

@dealrakerThat's is some real good performance. Was this with mutual funds or ETF's or was this with individual stock picking? 13% compounded is some serious outperformance.

Turkey is a terrible country for the average investing tourist to get involved in - terrible currency and economic policy, huge runup in the market, political (and now geological) instability galore, an autocratic government, terrible liquidity, lousy rule of law, lousy governance. The list goes on. To sell Micron (close to the lows) and buy the overbought Turkish equities most be one of the lousiest market calls ever.

The average investor does not need to beat the market to do well. Just matching about the market and he will do just fine. Most average investors though hugely underperform trying to time (badly) or invest in Fomo/Momo stocks at the wrong time. My comment above regarding to own a business should not prevent anyone from trying. I just think that over time most business in tough industries (contractors , restaurants, retail) fail. Most upstarts fail. When I recall the business that I knew in the town I grew up in the 70‘s, virtually all of them are not there any more. Some of the owners just retired and sold out and did OK. Others not so much. This is in a demographically challenged area. I am sure that in a growing area, the results would have been much better and there is a lesson here: Don‘t keep pissing against the wind. One business though closeby was sort of crappy looking machinery business that made it huge, went into international export and got bought out by a public company. I am sure it was a hundred bagger. So, much of the returns are in the tail. Again, if as in investor, you can capture the tails by indexing, even if you no nothing. As an active investor, you can try to actually get exposure to the tail by having better insight. Or you can try the behavioral edge and buy when others are selling out, which may be easier.

Yes, and work smart. If something does not pan out, switch careers and/or move elsewhere and try again.

It depends on the business. Almost all small business are crappy ones where basically the owner just owns a job. My dad was one of them- he passed away last year and basically died broke. Many of his fellow entrepreneurs or land owners went to work for other people over time, as their own business failed. The local economy has a lot to do with it, if you are in a demographically challenged area for example. Survivorship bias is huge with small business, much more do than with mid cap or large cap stocks,

The US can pay 4% interest rates with 5% inflation forever, they are still 1 % negative. Real interest rates have been below zero for a long time and they are still below zero.

Added to $CNC and just a bit to $BTI

Sold $TSN at a very small loss. Not much meat on the bones with this earnings release.

Run the following screen, if you have Tikr for example (or a derivative).

There are extremely cheap smaller banks out there. Think price/tangible book of ~1 and 13%+ ROE or some screen like this, Buy a basket of those and I think it will do well over the next few years, unless the economy totally goes of the rails.