Spekulatius

Because Russia can use nuclear blackmail. The only real means against nuclear blackmail is having nukes yourself.

I think you get a ~ 20% pullback every 2-3 years if past history is any guide.

Europe better get the nukes ready because it’s clear that the USA is going to break away from the NATO. The nuclear umbrella is gone too, but at least the French and UK have some Nukes of their own but it may not be enough deterrence. Everyone needs nukes, that’s the lesson of this war.

CACI looks really attractive due to headline risk from DOGE. I added today. this might go to $300 if I had to guess based on charts.

The problem with this deal is there is no enforcement. Supposedly European troops shall enforce the deal and others TBD but neither seem to be involved in the negotiations. The US has already excused themselves. This pretty much guarantees that this remains a frozen conflict. Also, since when is it a good idea to give away freebies before the negotiations even begin? Putin hasn’t given anything.

Try European defense cos.

Tariffs could become a big issue once the Eye of Sauron looks at Denmark and NVO.

None. Natural gas is going to be consumed to produce power for Minimills. I doubt anyone will build a new blast furnace.

Buying just a tiny bit of $CACI here. Maybe it will DOGE a bullet.

I always thought my BS smells better than that from others.

I would be more concerned about the Chinese dominating the discovery phase for biotech and biopharm, if you read the report. If that happens , they are going to use their own equipment before too long. AI is just one of the many tools that can be layered on existing simulation software. I don’t think we will see huge gains from this, at least not short term.

Going back to the letter, I was surprised by the positive assessment of MRK. MRK has a serious problem with Keytruda patent expiration in Dec 1st 2028. I think vaccines is another one where they seem to have issues in China currently and the recent changes (RFK - a vaccine hater) are going to create more headwinds. MRK vaccine business is considered a gem and they Animal Pharma business is another one but Keytruda casts a long shadow. the stock looks cheap and I have owned it before, but I am sceptical of the business model nowadays since so much R&D cost gets capitalized.

I don’t know NYU, but I know how industrial companies work .Your prop shop was supported by IT guys, accounting, auditors, facilities , HR, a management layer on top and I don’t know what else. None of those count as direct labor cost and I am willing to bet those costs were much higher than 15% and probably exceed 50%. You can not seriously compare a one man rickshaw driver running a cash business with a high tech research lab or any other larger operation. Even a temp hire outfit probably has 20-30% indirect labor costs and that’s as low as it gets.

Posting this here because why not. Elan Corp $6099 . It‘s a uniform/ consumables companies with quite a bit of growth, The stock took a dump recently when I bought a few shares around 700Yen for my Japan basket. Not a Graham stock, but I think the growth makes it worth it. https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/6099/ir_material4/244816/00.pdf

Much depends on the mandate he gets from the voters.

Show me any business where direct labor is 85% of the total cost. It does not exist.

Which news are you referring to? Russians are crushing it:

It’s a sign:

Well those instruments get expensed from these indirect costs. A lot of biotech & related research has to be cut, there is no way to run with 15% indirect costs.

Seems to me that US startups spent like drunken sailors simply because the money is available. Upstarts from other countries with far less resources demonstrate how that you can get similar results for far money building upon open source. I think this waste is going to be more obvious and then the chickens are going to come home to roost for those overspenders. It’s not the first such rodeo we have seen.

Here is another AI chat bot from Europe (France) - Mistral AI. Apparently developed fairly cheaply for tens of million Euro, not hundred of millions. I tested it out and it works quite well, got better results than with Perplexity when asking to summarize documents. This goes to show that AI itself probably isn’t a huge moat, it is how to apply it that matters. I think the valuations that OpenAI are getting and the money they are spending is insane. https://mistral.ai/en

Lasers that enough to destroy an hypersonic missile are bulky and need a huge power plant to operate. They are also hard to maintain. Just a tiny spec of bird poop on the laser exit window will lead to an epic meltdown. Distance limits are another issue as the laser beam needs to be focused or stay focused and that isn’t easy over long ranges. I think kinetic weapons have better prospects . Remember that the hypersonic missiles comes towards you, so your projectile can be much slower as long as it intercepts.

Awesome read, What was most interesting to me is that Chinese biotech are now really good and smart Pharma cos can inlicense molecules far cheaper than from US biotechs. U see a Deepseek theme here Also this note is very true. While individually rational for each specialist healthcare fund, our fear is that generalists and retail investors have increasingly realized that biotech is a tough game for them to participate in given the rise of specialists. In contrast, tech stories like Amazon or Nvidia are easier for the generalist investor to understand. In my opinion, biotech is a minefield for private investors and you are off buying an index fund or some large biotech with a good track record like REGN (one a few shares). I do think they glossed quickly over the anti science appointments of Oz and RFK as well as the possibility that Trump/Doge elbows some price cuts especially for big sellers like GLP-1 drugs.

Correct, the USA. (We the people ) owns 21% of all US companies via taxes, plain and simple. It can easily own a higher percentage if needed by raising taxes, if needed.

Not necessarily. I think a carrier group has the means to defend itself against hypersonic missiles but it does become a number game.