Spekulatius

@changegonnacome bet against America to your peril and that included the stock market. It the EM's that I would be worried about when liquidity gets drained. I expect to see more Adanis moments there.

@boilermaker75 I had the same idea. Prince Edward island was on my list of places to visit and my wife (who enjoys the show as well) approved the idea. It's not going to be this summer though.

Dark stocks? You can’t scan for those, because they don’t disclose their financials. You got to know your stuff and/or do some digging.

Anne with an A on Netflix. Just watched the first episode and it’s Delightful Canadian TV series. Witty dialogue and great actor from the girl who plays Anna. I have only watched the first show, but if they can keep this up, it’s the best family TV show that I watched for quite some time https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5421602/ @Xerxes - The English is a slow burner Western, sort of like one of the epic Spagetti westerns of the late 60’s. I actually parked it for a while after watching the first 2 Episodes, because it sort of slow with bursts of action. it really captivated me when I continued watching it and they develop the characters and storyline.

He is digging in for the long haul and so should we. Then he adds a bit nuclear saber rattling because that's really all he has left to threaten the west. Same old really. Bullish for defense stocks, I think.

Never been such a big Metallica fan, but i have seen them once live in Mountain View and the show was great. Master of Puppets is probably their best record:

I think Russia will find a way to refill the prisons and a prison sentence will be just a detour to the frontline for those prisoners.

AI is a gold rush now, but everything will take much longer than we think. Think self driving car longer, which is also partly an AI, but also a sensor system problem. I do think a SI tool paperclip 2.0 that helps me with Excel and write/improve/structure word document or PP presentation will be quite useful. There are probably many other things that AI can be a useful tool, for example programming. I am not sure this is all that much of a life changing tech for the next 10 years so.

I don’t think he sold it in his personal or fund portfolio. He recommends to sell out of BRK and MU in his Ueber Cannibal portfolio which he talks about in his Chai with Pabrai blog.

That’s sleazebag was Armand Hammer. I don’t think having a position in the Permian protects you from inflation though- again because depletion is relatively fast, which means you are exposed to rising input costs. The Permian is just the best reservoir in the US, close to existing infrastructure and in one of the most business friendly states in the US (at least the part in Texas). Oil sands are better in that regard because once build, they require only maintenance capital for about 20 years, but even those are subject to rising costs to some extend.

I thought about this over a can of cider last night and I think it makes sense that this is T or T (or both). The size is 60m shares * $68 or roughly $4B. I think this is doable for T&T. Maybe both bought it who knows. it's similar to the CVX trade where Berkshire filed a buy in late 2020 and then shares were sold a quarter later. The whale buys came later and due to size are unquestionable Buffetts. I think these swingtrades are T&T not Buffett. They seem to do those quite in size.

The forever chemical lawsuit looks a bit like asbestos to me. Berkshire would not buy a business with open ended liabilities like this because this is the sort of thing that could bring the entire company down. The combat earplug lawsuit is likely is expensive but manageable.

I am in the US and have a fixed mortgage, but my cost of homeownership still goes up by 4-5%. The reason is power (up ~25%) and NG is getting more expensive as well as real estate taxes keep creeping up. The inflation looks like whack a mole to me. OK, fuel is down, used cars are down yoY, but now used car prices seem to rise again. Energy (except fuel) is getting way more expensive. So you have these rolling inflation waves hitting you at different times but overall it looks like there is some persistency there. Or does anyone really thinks that rents for example will start to shrink? Rents tend to be sticky. I see this at work too - the company I work for still tries to push down price increases - roughly 5-7% now. There is more pushback than last year. Some of the crazy input cost spikes for some materials are gone, but there is just a wave of overall input price increases as far as I can tell. All those price increases used to be 0-2% ballpark until about 2020 when hell broke loose.

Nothing to see here, carry on. Some of the best and considered most “durable” business are a race to the bottom- trash collection and railroads are examples. The Waste Management trucks look like they come straight from Mad Max movies. Same with some trains that look like the “War Rig” from “Fury Road”. You can’t argue with the results though, can you?

European gas futures now below 50€. That’s lower than at the start of the invasion. Putin’s NG gamble has failed. Putins crude gamble also is failing, because he needs to sell at prices far below Brent, despite all his ramblings. Over time, he is going to bleed Russia white economically and literally. I think he is going to lose 200k soldiers this year.

Most plans don't have a brokerage window due to compliance concerns (the concern is that participants may blow up their account and then sue the sponsor).

A starter in LSXMK

Try your library. the Boston library gives you online access for example. I personally would use tikr.com because it is much quicker.

From Woosh! -Surprisingly good record from Deep purple:

$250K for a nice buildable lot on the lake doesn't sound that steep. I have seen lakeside lots trading for more in the southern NH boonies and the climate is much more agreeable in NC. I don't think the bottom is in for those.

Selling a bit more $JXN

I would make the argument that the cyclical nature of their FCF makes energy companies poor candidates to buy back stock to begin with. They should be thinking about replacing buybacks with special dividends - the way PBR is doing it. Even with the tax leakage, the results may be better overall. Energy companies absolutely need to keep investing when energy prices are low. If they stop, the whole organization gets hollowed out (the skills to run exploration and development will wane) and it is also cheaper to develop resources when prices are low rather than when prices are high and everyone else is rushing in.

A hard landing - however that is defined- is never good for banks. Results will depend on exactly how hard and what exactly comes down, but it generally means consumer stress (CC and car loans defaults) as well as commercial real estate defaults and spreads blowing out. For a real hard landing, the annual stress test results give you an idea what a 2008 GFC like scenario looks like. It's not pretty but the major banks would survive. That said, you don't want to own banks in this scenario. I consider such a hard landing very unlikely however.

Yes, when you have a 401k, then your option are limited. Often the only options aren't even index funds, they have higher cost funds. over time this has improved, but even large companies have surprisingly crappy options. I have talked with several benefit managers about this - they could easily do better, but they don't care - all they care is compliance. If you think about it in this way, less options mean compliance becomes easier for them. brokerage window - oh now - possible compliance leak - don't want this. Even with index vs higher cost funds - as long as it's not grossly negligent - they don't care. I also think there is some sort of kickback scheme at work where higher cost funds are pushed in exchange for reducing the administrative cost for the sponsor company.

I thought he was in the money with TSM. So he pays taxes rather than saving them.