no_free_lunch

The thing that scares me about bitcoin is that transaction fees are not really increasing. They are actually lower today than they were back during the first bubble in 2017/18. In 2017 they were bouncing between $2-4 much of the time, with some spikes over $10. Today, the average transaction fee is listed as $1.72. I would expect transactions fees to steadily grind up if demand was increasing. https://www.blockchain.com/charts/fees-usd-per-transaction To me it looks like people aren't really needing bitcoin that much. Perhaps with all the crypto out there, there are just too many other options. No real opinion on bitcoin, it's a neat idea and has certainly done well but trying to ascribe a value to it is impossible, imo.

JBHT - Trucking company with an edge. Their main business is intermodal, which means they shuttle containers to rail yards and move them by rail most of the way. Given rail is much cheaper energy wise they are in a strong position right now. Also have logistics business which is low capital. Excellent long term track record. There is a lot to like here. I may start a post on them later. Currently trading for around 18x PE so not crazy cheap but it has often traded 25-30x (just approximating it). It has historically grown mid double digits so your are getting close to the elusive 1 PEG. If anyone hates them speak up.

I don't have a source handy but I have heard similar numbers. It is possible. 100k troops in Donbass a year since 2014 when the war started, so 8 years worth. I don't think there is a problem with equipping these types of numbers with basic infantry equipment. It's more about having the heavy equipment than number of men, from what I can tell. Tanks, drones, artillery, aircraft. This in true in particular in the open areas. So it will really come down to the west supplying the equipment. There is no doubt they have the manpower to use it.

I guess it is 10%. I was including Cash + Receivables.

Small position in META. Seems too cheap. 12 PE and 15% of the market cap in cash. Not without risks of course but at these prices I'm willing to roll the dice.

I wonder which country Russia will attack next. It seems the only thing Russia is capable of is to attack smaller neighbor countries and the domestic issues are bound to resurface as this invasion has not resolved the underlying cluster fuck that is the Russian economy.

I would sure think so but the reality it just hasn't happened yet despite making a lot of sense for years. I know in my case, despite having a job that is very easy to do remotely, there are still requirements about in office work that make moving to a small town not practical. I think too, that kind of lifestyle is a huge change and while there will be some who will go for it, most prefer the amenities of the larger centers. Regarding the post in general, I think it is indeed a huge problem. However, there are mitigating factors as well. Countries such as the US and Canada are going to do better than others due to the larger amount of immigration we have. There is also going to be a shift in retirement age to later, there will just have to be. I don't know exactly how that all plays out but the market will find a way to push aging workers back in. Could be via inflation hitting the value of government benefits, stock / real estate crash hurting those who have saved, pension defaults, there are many possibilities. At any rate, in this day and age, while 65 is a great retirement age and is something I aspire to (or earlier), I also know people who have worked to 80. With white collar work retiring at 65 doesn't make as much as sense as it used to. Even less so if there is a shortage of workers.

There are two sets of rules, I don't think it's even debatable anymore. Just a question of who the elites are. I think you saw the curtain fall down during COVID when regular people were in lock down and private jets were still moving around the planet shuttling the ultra wealthy as they saw fit. I believe that the bailouts in 2008 were also a blatant attempt to back up certain wealthy elites. Regular Joe was told to absorb 50% cuts to their home equity, small business went bankrupt, blue/white collar lost jobs but bank shareholders were mostly made whole. Yes, I realize it is more complicated and JPM was forced to take the money, etc but all in all this was clearly done to bail out rich and dumb share-holders. There were ways for the government to keep the banks alive while also wiping out the shareholders as was deserved. All you can do is try to stay one step ahead of it with your trading but when you are up against insiders who control governments it feels it's only a matter of time before you lose out.

I am certainly no military expert but I think if the NATO countries can supply the arms then Ukraine can push them back, at least to pre-invasion borders. So Russia would still control Crimea and the far eastern provinces. It seems that NATO can produce technologically superior weapons. This should help to offset the manpower advantage Russia has. As far as losses, Russia has a much larger base but this is an existential threat to Ukraine and just a resource grab for Russia. It seems Ukraine is more willing to sacrifice in this holy war and in contrast it seems by sacrificing their people Russia risks revolution. Ultimately I am counting on the war just not being worth the huge economic cost for Russia . NATO is so much richer than Russia, somewhere around 20 times the GDP. The longer they draw this war out the more it costs Russia economically while for NATO they can just eat it. If NATO can turn this into an economic war (hint: they have), it's Russia's to lose.

On the oil I meant that the commodity globally will eventually lose value. We just went through a mammoth oil bust and we will have another one. Let's see how Russia does when that happens.

Thanks Pelagic. I knew he must have had military experience at a senior level. He is very sober and fact based. Inofeisone, Russia just needs to get out of Ukraine altogether. Ukraine wants all it's stolen territory and people back. This is like an abusive relationship, it's over, they need to GTFO. How many Ukrainian soldiers have to die people keep asking, but how many Russian soldiers is that country prepared to squander. How long is Russia prepared to have sanctions on. Sooner or later the price of oil will tank and then what will they have.

Interesting video from Russia. It appears legit to me. On this talk show, the guest is now openly talking about the strength of Ukraine's position, in particular with general mobilization and enhanced weapons from NATO members. He then calls into question the ability of Russia to generate a successful army from conscripts. Possible I am getting snowed by western propaganda but I haven't seen anything like this since the war started. Is Russia starting to signal position change? I don't think they were prepared for the kind of war, maybe this is how they start to wind it down. Still far from over but encouraging.

One of the motivation for lend lease in the 30s was to provide the defense industry the opportunity to scale up. Hopefully that is now happening in NATO countries. I don't know how to weight it all out and certainly lack of equipment and stock is risky but I know from my investing that companies usually end up constrained by demand not supply. Just a question of how quickly they can scale.

I agree with the basic premise of what is being said regarding war. However our societies can only exist if we can defend ourselves. I mean that was kind of the lesson drawn from the world wars. Surely there is a difference between defense and offense. It's clearly wrong to shoot someone but if someone breaks into your house, armed and there are no police different circumstance entirely. Aren't we, or at least Europe closer to the latter? The profiteering from war is a very serious and corruptive issue but it's also been around since the 40s, probably longer.

Gregmal, what you are saying around info gaps and propaganda would apply during the second world war as well. There are definitely things we know about the war. You just have to wait for confirmation from both sources. The Moskva for instance definitely sank, both sides confirm it. Just a question of what caused it. It's a bit much to point to something you saw on twitter and extrapolate to everything we read is fake!

I don't think that is necessarily true that Russia improved over time. In WW1 they just kept feeding troops into the grinder. As I understand it was a major reason for the revolution. Afghanistan , maybe not a good comparison as it was guerilla warfare but that didn't end well either. In WW2 yes, they did improve significantly during the war but also took enormous losses. I don't doubt it's going to get worse, from UA perspective. Russia is not winning and they will start to lose if they don't adapt. I don't see them getting efficient though, I think they may just raise troop levels but we will see. Also keep in mind UA is far from perfect and will continue to evolve as well.

Any thoughts on the situation in Transistria? I have a theory that the general mobilization is a trial balloon before application in Russia. It may also strengthen the argument that ethnic Russians are under attack. It seems too small and insignificant to play any meaningful role in the actual fighting. In Ukraine it seems they are holding up quite well. I was very concerned at the beginning of the conflict when Kiev was surrounded. Somewhat concerned a week ago when they started massing to attack in the east. They are gaining some territory but this is hardly the tactics that will result in destruction of the Ukrainian army. I am no expert but it seems more a war of attrition now. While Russia has a much larger population I don't see their people bring willing to sacrifice on the scale needed. Meanwhile there are people even in Canada on waiting lists to join the UA, crazy as that sounds. Perhaps that is where the general mobilization in RU may come in. Barring some significant change in the Russian playbook I see Ukraine not only holding them off but even going to offensive over the next few months. The amount of arms flowing in from NATO is fairly epic and quality cannot be understated.

I don't know what will happen with housing. Hopefully prices can pull back 20-30% so we don't crush the new generation. We know that people, most people, willl pay the mortgage first. People will cut elsewhere if they can. So with rates going up consumer spending will get hit. Then factor that I see a lot of people buying their toys with mortgage refinancing and it gets even worse. Bigger mortgage payment and stalled or shrinking home equity hits the consumer spend twice. Let's not even talk about energy prices. I don't see how we get through this without a recession.

Small position in RCH.TO

I would just say Xerxes that I feel the west is the best. We can delve into they if you want but it's just a fact imo. It's the legal and democratic systems that are in place are so superior. I want to live and invest in the west and it's true for most people too. Once I'm at that point and I see a country trying to join the west and asking for our support of course I will support them. In particular when I see ethnic cleansing. I realize this happens elsewhere in the world but in those cases we are told to stay out and none of your business. Ok, fine we will stay out. Ukraine wants our help , we aren't being labelled aggressors then we will help. What I was going for with my Scud and isis comments was we have seen attacks on the west. You make it sound unprecedented but it's happened many times.

I think Iraq did fire scuds at Israel in the first gulf war. After the invasion ISIS was formed and eventually there were attacks on Europe. All part of the nightmare but in this case the west will support them. That's the problem with your comparison. Russia is not a superpower and Ukraine is not without allies. Russia can't afford the war to begin with so everything we can do to make it more expensive is worthwhile.

Agree with gregmal 100%. Having some stock level posts available for Google will help with search results too. Maybe you could just show the opening post or perhaps VIC style where content gets released after a delay. I am having similar experience to longlake. I have no issues with ads but surely there can be some limit on what's shown.

Russia border city Bryansk has large fires at an oil and military facility. Confirmed on both sides social media but still unofficially. Some chatter from Ukrainian side that the attack was via drones. It needed to be done, Ukraine cannot just have it's infrastructure obliterated without response.

The population was prepared. You can tell us all you want but I saw the trolls advocate for war. The specifics of the attack were likely held close to the chest but that's a different thing.

Fires reported at a Russian research facility and at a large chemical plant. Similar to the sunken Moskva these are clearly just "accidents". It's also possible that hybrid wars play in both directions.