no_free_lunch

On the oil I meant that the commodity globally will eventually lose value. We just went through a mammoth oil bust and we will have another one. Let's see how Russia does when that happens.

Thanks Pelagic. I knew he must have had military experience at a senior level. He is very sober and fact based. Inofeisone, Russia just needs to get out of Ukraine altogether. Ukraine wants all it's stolen territory and people back. This is like an abusive relationship, it's over, they need to GTFO. How many Ukrainian soldiers have to die people keep asking, but how many Russian soldiers is that country prepared to squander. How long is Russia prepared to have sanctions on. Sooner or later the price of oil will tank and then what will they have.

Interesting video from Russia. It appears legit to me. On this talk show, the guest is now openly talking about the strength of Ukraine's position, in particular with general mobilization and enhanced weapons from NATO members. He then calls into question the ability of Russia to generate a successful army from conscripts. Possible I am getting snowed by western propaganda but I haven't seen anything like this since the war started. Is Russia starting to signal position change? I don't think they were prepared for the kind of war, maybe this is how they start to wind it down. Still far from over but encouraging.

One of the motivation for lend lease in the 30s was to provide the defense industry the opportunity to scale up. Hopefully that is now happening in NATO countries. I don't know how to weight it all out and certainly lack of equipment and stock is risky but I know from my investing that companies usually end up constrained by demand not supply. Just a question of how quickly they can scale.

I agree with the basic premise of what is being said regarding war. However our societies can only exist if we can defend ourselves. I mean that was kind of the lesson drawn from the world wars. Surely there is a difference between defense and offense. It's clearly wrong to shoot someone but if someone breaks into your house, armed and there are no police different circumstance entirely. Aren't we, or at least Europe closer to the latter? The profiteering from war is a very serious and corruptive issue but it's also been around since the 40s, probably longer.

Gregmal, what you are saying around info gaps and propaganda would apply during the second world war as well. There are definitely things we know about the war. You just have to wait for confirmation from both sources. The Moskva for instance definitely sank, both sides confirm it. Just a question of what caused it. It's a bit much to point to something you saw on twitter and extrapolate to everything we read is fake!

I don't think that is necessarily true that Russia improved over time. In WW1 they just kept feeding troops into the grinder. As I understand it was a major reason for the revolution. Afghanistan , maybe not a good comparison as it was guerilla warfare but that didn't end well either. In WW2 yes, they did improve significantly during the war but also took enormous losses. I don't doubt it's going to get worse, from UA perspective. Russia is not winning and they will start to lose if they don't adapt. I don't see them getting efficient though, I think they may just raise troop levels but we will see. Also keep in mind UA is far from perfect and will continue to evolve as well.

Any thoughts on the situation in Transistria? I have a theory that the general mobilization is a trial balloon before application in Russia. It may also strengthen the argument that ethnic Russians are under attack. It seems too small and insignificant to play any meaningful role in the actual fighting. In Ukraine it seems they are holding up quite well. I was very concerned at the beginning of the conflict when Kiev was surrounded. Somewhat concerned a week ago when they started massing to attack in the east. They are gaining some territory but this is hardly the tactics that will result in destruction of the Ukrainian army. I am no expert but it seems more a war of attrition now. While Russia has a much larger population I don't see their people bring willing to sacrifice on the scale needed. Meanwhile there are people even in Canada on waiting lists to join the UA, crazy as that sounds. Perhaps that is where the general mobilization in RU may come in. Barring some significant change in the Russian playbook I see Ukraine not only holding them off but even going to offensive over the next few months. The amount of arms flowing in from NATO is fairly epic and quality cannot be understated.

I don't know what will happen with housing. Hopefully prices can pull back 20-30% so we don't crush the new generation. We know that people, most people, willl pay the mortgage first. People will cut elsewhere if they can. So with rates going up consumer spending will get hit. Then factor that I see a lot of people buying their toys with mortgage refinancing and it gets even worse. Bigger mortgage payment and stalled or shrinking home equity hits the consumer spend twice. Let's not even talk about energy prices. I don't see how we get through this without a recession.

Small position in RCH.TO

I would just say Xerxes that I feel the west is the best. We can delve into they if you want but it's just a fact imo. It's the legal and democratic systems that are in place are so superior. I want to live and invest in the west and it's true for most people too. Once I'm at that point and I see a country trying to join the west and asking for our support of course I will support them. In particular when I see ethnic cleansing. I realize this happens elsewhere in the world but in those cases we are told to stay out and none of your business. Ok, fine we will stay out. Ukraine wants our help , we aren't being labelled aggressors then we will help. What I was going for with my Scud and isis comments was we have seen attacks on the west. You make it sound unprecedented but it's happened many times.

I think Iraq did fire scuds at Israel in the first gulf war. After the invasion ISIS was formed and eventually there were attacks on Europe. All part of the nightmare but in this case the west will support them. That's the problem with your comparison. Russia is not a superpower and Ukraine is not without allies. Russia can't afford the war to begin with so everything we can do to make it more expensive is worthwhile.

Agree with gregmal 100%. Having some stock level posts available for Google will help with search results too. Maybe you could just show the opening post or perhaps VIC style where content gets released after a delay. I am having similar experience to longlake. I have no issues with ads but surely there can be some limit on what's shown.

Russia border city Bryansk has large fires at an oil and military facility. Confirmed on both sides social media but still unofficially. Some chatter from Ukrainian side that the attack was via drones. It needed to be done, Ukraine cannot just have it's infrastructure obliterated without response.

The population was prepared. You can tell us all you want but I saw the trolls advocate for war. The specifics of the attack were likely held close to the chest but that's a different thing.

Fires reported at a Russian research facility and at a large chemical plant. Similar to the sunken Moskva these are clearly just "accidents". It's also possible that hybrid wars play in both directions.

I disagree that the invasion was not signalled. It seems there was a legion of Russian trolls making the case for it well in advance. I remember coming across comments on different platforms where they would advocate for war and lay out the various arguments. I am seeing the same type of accounts say specifically that they won't use nukes. Or at least the more respectable ones.

For what it's worth the Russian government and the Russian propaganda accounts I follow specifically mentioned and denied the possible use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine. I feel the arguments in its favor are written here by people who really are not following in detail the nuances of the Russian stance. I don't think Russia has even done everything they can with conventional weapons yet. They are not carpet bombing cities for instance. Despite threats of murder they continue to acquire and trade prisoners of war. None of the above is to give a pass to the many war crimes committed but just a reflection of the realities on the field. They are waging a very real propaganda war, one which some in our country and certainly in Russia aligned countries buy into. All attempts to ignore this in people's feigned understanding of Russian intention feel weak. I cannot stress that enough. You need to consider and spend some time looking at their perspective to guess at their actions. My theory is look for conventional escalation, murder of POWs, use of gas, other provocation first before nukes.

My take, based on reading random Ukrainian sources, is that they don't trust Russia to honor any agreements. I agree it's a proxy war but from what I can tell the average Ukrainian isn't interested in signing an agreement that won't be honored. It's not the US pulling the strings, the people there just understand what they are up against.

It's not about protecting a specific country. Are you guys really this naive? It's about allowing this monster to grow and to enable it through inaction. If Ukraine can be intimidated then why not Finland, Sweden, Moldova. The bigger the USSR gets the more of a challenge will be. Ultimately we could have people on this board saying are we really going to risk nuclear war over Poland, over Germany? Best to stop it now while we have strength. The US has been going toe to toe and risking nuclear war since the 50s. Vietnam, Korea , Cuba missile crisis. Nothing new , although the current administration hasn't been tested as such. I think it's definitely plausible but it won't play out as expected. It could be the US arming Ukraine with nukes , total economic sanctions including with all trading partners, and yes conventional attacks on Russia facilities.

I think that would go away immediately is the thing. That's a fairly catastrophic loss to Russia. They don't have much of an economy outside of energy sales. Until you come up with an analysis that factors that in I don't buy it. By death cult I meant their willingness to start WW3. Their whole strategy towards NATO assumes that as an option but I can't see it being done unless they were already facing launched nukes. After their withdraw from Kiev it seems clear they have very real limits and concerns for their troops safety. To go from that to a willingness to have their children annihilated, no just no. If we see behavior like we saw with ISIS, routine suicide bombings and fight to the death mentality I would be a lot more concerned.

I think you are under-estimating the economic side effects Xerxes. Trade with Europe, including NG, would be completely severed if they went nuclear. Trade with China and India if they continue to support Russia the same. From a nuclear war perspective, I don't buy it. Russia is not a death cult. They are already resorting to conscription and recruitment from other countries and we are only a month into the war. Clearly there are only so many Russian's willing to die and most have already made the commitment.

It's plausible of course but I don't see it. Putin , believe it or not, is still trying to maintain good guy status to his followers. It would destroy the narrative that he is saving Ukraine from itself. If it was done I assume Ukraine would destroy the NG pipelines for starters. It could draw the US into retaliation. I feel Sweden and Finland would have little choice but to join NATO. In the Pacific it would expedite South Korea and Japan nuclear weapon programs. Not sure Russia cares but China sure would. As a Russian ally it would put them in a awkward spot at a time they are pursuing economic and political and strategic advantage. I frankly feel it would piss them right off due to the blowback. I'm sure there is more but I feel it's like shuffling the position of all the pieces in the chessboard at once. All plans and calculations are reset.

For the record Mariupol defenders remain and continue to fight. Russia sources continue to brag about their success fighting them. Yet these defenders have had no resupply for 50 days and likely have no heavy weapons remaining. Yes they will likely surrender or die in the end but what is happening there is, in my opinion, legend.

It seems Russia can only play games when the rules are in their favor. Attack a Ukrainian city, fair play. Ukraine attacks a Russian city, out of bounds.