no_free_lunch

Don't listen to Schiff. He's a perma bear and just a bag of hot air. I remember in the worst of the GFC him talking about how it's just getting started. If you listened to him you are much poorer today.

Xerxes is right. Russia can do tremendous damage given it has near air superiority and a large advantage in heavy equipment. I don't get the impression this is close to over. Here are some bear case arguments I see. Hungary is now talking about a bordering Ukrainian province joining Hungary. They claim a large ethnic Hungarian population. Hungary has avoided sending arms and perhaps it relates to their positioning here. Moldova also has a breakaway pro Russian province. What will happen when if Russia gets close enough. China... Already discussed but the biggest wildcard. I am cautiously optimistic that China will maneuver to its advantage and to me that means economics over arm shipments. The deals with Saudi, Russian oil purchases, etc. Scary times.

This is as I understand it as well. I read enough pro Russian sources and this is a recurring theme. They are pushing against western liberal cultural and monetary influence expansion. They are positioning themselves as the saviors. There's a kernel of truth to it but it's also nonsense when you think about it. Many other ways to go about it including just putting their own sanctions in place if that's what they really want. It reminds me of the Nazis justifying the invasion of Russia as destroying communism when really it was a land grab. If you follow the Russian sources they are not really consistent. It's a grab bag of excuses for different audiences. NATO, protecting Russian affiliated prople, historical claims to the lend, then western decadence. If anyone is really interested I recommend watching Putin's speech the day before the invasion. It gave me chills but he lays it out there and I would just take him verbatim.

The western economies are looking very weak right now and I am concerned. Our governments and businesses don't think long term and we are in a bad spot and liable to get squeezed. Look at the sanctions against Russia. Have we ever do e sanctions on this scale before? It seems the west has this in their playbook but that's all it is , a set of strategies. Nobody has tested this at an economy of Russia's size. Could there not be blowback. Not that I disagree with hurting Russia but we have to think it through. I am not sure that paying 1/3 more for gas is hurting Putin. Feels like a huge wealth transfer and not sure I like to whom. If one of the goals is to move to more local production of goods this will go against us, as energy prices are a big factor as is labor. If China can pick up Russia oil at a discount , then they have that much more advantage in production. We have , as we all know, a great deal of debt in our society. Further we are chained down by social program spending so difficult for the government to ever get out of that. The whole thing is a farce but its backed directly or indirectly by the USD as a reserve currency. We just block a huge economy from transacting in USD. Nothing genius here but won't Russia just sell to China in Yuan. Once that gets established, who knows where it goes. Iran and Venezuela of course but maybe India and Brazil move to some Yuan backed transactions too. If we trigger inflation in our economy and China can mitigate by buying cheap Russia commodities they may look better and better. For investing, I am still in stocks , mainly US and Canada but I don't like it one bit. Will be shifting some assets to farmland if I can find a deal. Also just buying as much stuff as I can. If I think I will need it in the next year or so, I'm buying it.

Gregmal, this is a lot bigger issue than fits into a leftist entitlement box. I think if you read through my posts, I am pretty far from being a left wing supporter. In fact a lot of conservatives actually do support Ukraine , in their own way. That can mean sanctions or mil aid. Many support it. You don't want to support it that's your opinion and that's fine, not really actually at all, but this is a lot bigger than the left right. You have a nuclear superpower wanting to go toe to toe and you and admittedly many in the left want to revert to domestic politics. Wake the fuck up.

I'm with the camp that the issues with Nazis in Ukraine are overplayed. The fact that the country is lead by a Jewish leader says a lot. These nazi types exist in every country and even the Canadian military has it. I would watch those far on the right in the west, in Canada and the US. Russia propaganda has fully immersed to that side. It's good to question the narrative from MSM but to just take the opposite side and support Russia is foolish. There is not a lot of critical thinking or consideration of the war crimes by Russia in Chechnya or Syria. All swept under the rug because Russia is going to "take down the deep state" which these clowns believe is based out of Ukraine. 100% Russia propaganda and its going to go against these people when we end up having to fight Russia.

COVID does put a strain on the countries resources, no doubt about that. However there is also an underlying issue that the health regions were already running at capacity before this all started. There were many stories of long waits pre virus. I feel COVID gets scapegoated for an inflexible, unionized and bureaucratic system. You can do whatever you want with non vaccinated, it's not going to fix the underlying issues.

That's not the same at all. If protesters show up outside or inside a classroom demanding it be shutdown then that is cancel culture. I actually don't agree with him on that one but he can make the argument as it's publicly funded. Defund the police is a whole different thing. That isn't cancel culture. I don't really care about that, you want to do that in your neighborhood go for it. Just stay away from where I live. We just want nothing to do with the left's policies.

The easy solution is to get rid of all these programs. You think you are helping people but you are just keeping them from getting ahead and creating a dependency on the state. Not just the welfare programs but government control over interest rates and all this government intervention. All that garbage has to go. All you are accomplishing is jacking up asset prices which benefits older and wealthier citizens and does net nothing for those starting out. Which is what you and your polite company are really after.

I guess if you think it's going to be a flat market you should focus on special situations. Merger arb, spinoffs, tenders, etc. You could probably grind out a few percentage points higher, if nothing else. Redeploy to growth opportunities during the inevitable busts. However there are no guarantees, we could also continue to have lopsided winner take all markets where you underperform if you don't own FAANG. It's a risk you have to take. Just pick a general proven strategy and stick to it no matter what. My strategy is to go after high quality stuff when it goes on sale. Plus special situations, if I understand them. Plus plain old value if they are returning capital. It got me through 2008 just fine.

I'm really not a Peterson fan but I'm still not buying what you are saying. The link you list is him refusing to have his constitutional rights violated. How does that relate to cancel culture?

Agree that with government intervention this is how it may go, a flat lined market for years. Is this not what has been happening all over the world for the past 15 years? It's just the states and a handful of countries that are meaningfully up since the 2007 peak.

I agree with the dual market theory. This is why I'm scared to hold indexes. I can find companies that are not overvalued but most stuff clearly is and the bubble will ultimately pop. In the meanwhile as we don't know how long this goes on for, it's crazy not to stay invested. Shiller PE has been high since around 2014. Think about the gains since then. To give a couple counter examples, Verizon has a 5% yield and a PE of 10. I don't know what will happen with their business but that is stock and industry risk. I don't see it as historically overvalued. C at PE of 8. Same rationale. Amgen is trading so where around 14x FCF. There are many more like these that get posted here. I don't see why these companies should trade at half their valuation. Clearly the valuation is confined to certain stocks although I will admit it is spilling over as value gains.

Where is the biodistribution study from Pfizer? That is the whole point of that study, to answer the questions raised here as to where the vaccine distributes. Why hasn't Pfizer made that information available? In general, you know I am double vaccinated but I find the lack of data from Pfizer to be very troubling. What possible reason would there be for them not to release thousands of pages of research if there vaccine really is safe.

TPB is interesting, i have had it on my list but just haven't done the research. Kind of a pick and shovel approach to pot investing, not bad at all. I like the brand. Do you know what happened in late October that caused the share plunge? Was that a stock split, spinoff, disappointing quarter.. Just trying to get up to speed.

Try wall street bets, lol. That said if you want to gamble look at calls on the 2 prison companies in the US. Can't remember the tickers. Michael Burry is in big on them and it's an interesting setup.

I am up a mere 20%. Crazy return but I see it as a failure given the markets performance. I am about 50% USA and 50% international. Generally had 20-25% bonds or cash during the year which was a huge anchor.

Sold AVB , apartment REIT, as it has run up 60+% over the past year and I just can't make the argument for it now. Rolocated the funds to FRPH, so more real estate. See the board posts on it but in short it appears well managed and at least reasonably priced.

It's really tough right now. Not much I am crazy about. Often I will sell something that is up and buy 2 new positions. As a result my portfolio is growing larger and larger, but quality is perhaps not going up. At current prices I do like citigroup (C). That would be my top pick. It is trading somewhere around 8x earnings and returning cash. It is very diversified geographically and due to size which suits me but still won't save it in a global rout. It's around 4% of my portfolio. I like twitter as well, saw it mentioned in one of the earlier posts. It is down by half from it's highs and if you squint and make some assumptions I could see it as currently trading in the 35-40x 2022 fcf range. Not for the faint of heart but I have a small position and may add. It is still growing aggressively and has a lot of potential. Dorsey, the former CEO and founder, stepping out is my main concern. I also still like FFH.to but am up so much on it that I don't know if I can exactly pound the table for it (thanks for your and Xerxes and others opinions on that one, really made my year). Also FIH, yes, I have a small position but I like it and I like India so I may add.

At what rate could you have got a variable mortgage? It is strange that the mortgage market is so different between two countries that are neighbors and similar economically. Maybe it is the legacy of fannie mae or perhaps Canada just has an oligopoly of a banking sector.

Thanks for the feedback. It is a 25 year mortgage. In canada you generally only lock in terms for 5 years. I find it hard to believe they will be able to raise rates by 100 bps but I guess certainly possible.

We are looking to upgrade our home and will be getting a mortgage. Curious peoples thoughts on variable vs fixed rates and this thread seemed relevant. These are my options, keep in mind I'm in Canada so no 30 year mortgages, I wish. 5 year variable 1.3% rate. 5 year fixed 2.2% rate. The variable is very tempting but I'm concerned what happens if rates start spiking. They would have to raise 100 bp before we lose with variable but who knows we are at historical lows.

I think high single digits 8-9% is going to be blowout over the next 10+ years relative to the indices. That is still 4-6% real return, really fantastic numbers for a realistic long term investor. I don't see how the S&P can deliver in excess of that given so much of it's return has been multiple expansion.

I don't know exactly but it trades at roughly 7x last year's premiums and is growing 40-50% a year. In comparison lemonaid is going for 50x premiums. So perhaps a bit overpriced but doesn't feel like it's in blue sky opioid induced bubble territory like other tech companies. It would probably trade 3 to 5x higher if it was based in the US.

I am with spekulatius on this. The timing of the ffh sell off seems to coincide with the plunge in yields. I just assumed investors are concerned as ffh holds large amounts of bonds. Concerns about the long term capital allocation performance of ffh have always been present so not sure that is a factor to recent weakness. I agree too that ffh needs to ramp up buybacks or else accept a low multiple. I would greatly prefer they cancel the dividend and apply that and all other excess capital to share buybacks.