no_free_lunch

The distinguishing feature is that its a store of value that is accessible from anywhere. Not so different from a Swiss bank account but much lower fees and higher volatility. I don't see the harm in high net worth having small percentage in it. Memorize your keys and you can get the money anywhere. What else is there that offers that? It's also a good hedge again fed printing. At some point that has to catch up to us. I choose to hedge via equities and RE but crypto could play a role too.

Keep it coming Stevie. This is why I consider ffh closer to a cigarbutt than long term hold. I would not be in it if there were better opportunities. I guess the things I will throw out in their defense is ATCO , digit appear to be very sensible investments. Otherwise yes I am having a hard time with their macro decisions.

I am actually quite confused about PCP. I don't know them well but why is a business like TDG doing so well and meanwhile castparts is taking huge write downs? Is the business really down over the long term or is this a temporary move.

Thank you cigarbutt. Appreciate your thoughts on BHE. I had not considered the switch to transmission but perfectly logical. This is certainly a daunting political / logistical task. Could this be the formation of a new toll road, I can only hope. The regulators seem the biggest risk here but as I read more they have tried to make it work in the past. It could be very lucrative if the rates allowed can be achieved. From a valuation perspective, other utilities trade at 2x book, BHE is a smaller piece of the empire but proportionally this seems to validate the buybacks.

I would not want dividends from Brk. Hold it in the taxable account. I'm sure I'm not the only one. If price gets to point where buybacks don't make sense then they should do an acquisition. Possibly even issue shares if it gets too high.

I really like the utility's, in theory, however the industry has challenges. Home based solar on demand side and carbon regulations on supply side. Meanwhile concern that regulations are stuck in the past. Any industry experts here? Is it still a good industry?

Thank you Phoenix , cigarbutt for your loss estimates. I happened to see that there are double digit price increases on home insurance in Florida. Could insurance industry act rationally and simply raise rates to recapture the loss?

I went through bits of it. Certainly the most extensive BRK breakdown I have ever seen. For those not inclined to wade through it he sees BRK at a meaningful discount to IV. I saw DIS and I saw just a wee little bit about BRK, otherwise do we know their portfolio?

How many pages are there in the Valeant thread. :)

T (as in AT&T) 7% dividend, stock buybacks, debt paydown, trading for somewhere around 8-9x fcf. Yes the business is stagnant but they own HBO max and that is actually growing fast. To tie to current trends, it is an inflation resistant investment.

They sold a small stake in digit at year end so it's not unprecedented. I think it's in part to take profit but also to provide a valuation point. With farmers edge they are only ipoing $100m, why not a similar float for digit? It's more to highlight the value than to raise capital. I could be totally wrong here, but it seems to fit.

I know nothing of boat rocker. Anyone have a sense for the value there? I hope he IPOs digit in the US. It can be marketed as the India version of lemonade. I have ffh at somewhere around $540 US or $675 CAD. If it can just move to book, it historically has traded around there or even at a premium, it's still over 30% upside. Plus any value that accrues due to insurance earnings. Plus any future gains from portfolio. It will take a few quarters or more if performance to rerate but it's very possible. Not so crazy to see it moving up 40 to 60% over the next year or two. On BB note that it's still a double from year end. As in the past 6 weeks. Yes it's discouraging they couldn't monetize but they are doing ok.

Very possible but oddly enough it may require high tech valuations to continue. Digit, farmers edge, blackberry plus their other tech startups all have some real potential. If the hard market stays um hard, I could see a significant rerating. It's really out of our hands but I see a double as a distinct possibility and I could see it in 3 years even. Maybe, maybe even within 2 years. I like that even if that doesn't pan out you are not paying up and downside seems reasonable. My main focus with ffh is the very high, imo, chance of a 20%+ move over the next 6 months.

I keep thinking that there is this other company, LMND, with $100m in sales and 50% growth it has a market cap of $8B. LMND is overpriced but it could still pull on digits valuation.

I don't know what it's worth but I don't see farmers edge as the debacle many here do. They are growing 60% a year and in the last year they managed to keep most of their expenses static. They could hit FCF neutral in 2 to 3 years. At that point profits kick in. If they are growing 40%, breakeven FCF then it actually could be a very valuable asset. This is tech , these companies have horrible income statements at the beginning, it's about scale. Once you are hooked in you have cross sell opportunities. Th carbon market in particular is growing FAST. This will be a big part of the hype and could be a mammoth market. I'm not a bull, wouldn't buy it but I could see it doing well.

More FFH.TO. It went from a 1% to 10% position over past few weeks. It is getting kind of stupid now but maybe I am missing something. There are underlying securities are doing so well, even BB while down from the highs is more than a double from where it was last time book was reported. Even if they did 0 hedging on BB FFH is cheap cheap cheap.

On Lynch, I read the book and thought it was a great read but yes you step back and it is a bit hard to apply. I don't have a link but I read that in the 80's and 90's it was LEGAL and common practice for companies to pre release their earnings to select mutual fund managers. I also read that lynch was part of that intake (just reporting what I saw). Could be a no so insignificant part of the alpha.

I don't have a subscription. Can someone post a summary?

Reddit and WSB are not behind it. If you go to their site , every third article says it's a scan, if you want to buy silver the ticker is GME. If you want to buy silver, go for it. Maybe it's a good investment, great However it's not true that there is this Reddit crowd doing so which is what the article is saying. Yes there are write ups about silver but it didn't gain momentum. Someone else is behind this.

Reddit WSB is saying that silver squeeze is a false narrative spread by someone trying to distract from GME. I would not buy silver hoping retail is behind you.

I don't like that politics showed up and disappeared all around the us election. We are "allowed" to talk politics when the moderator decides it's appropriate. That itself is a huge political statement. For now, I am out too. Later y'all.

Dear Prem, Please sell all BB holdings. See reddit/wsb if you are looking for a buyer. Thanks, Exuberant FAIRFAX shareholder

Where did the 47m shares of BB cone from? I had it at over 60m based on the reported value of the BB stake in the 2019 AR.

Brooklyn investor has an interesting and well written take on the bubble. Tldr high valuations can persist for extended periods and there are sections of the market that should do ok regardless of what happens. http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2021/01/happy-new-year-bubble-yet.html?m=1

I don't know blackberry but with these platforms it's more than just the initial revenue. There will be an app store, I wonder how that revenue split would work between auto, Amazon, blackberry. The app store will be a way to target subscription revenue as well. It's one way I can see the numbers making sense. It is also possible that $20 per car number does go up as it is guaranteed there will be more and more sensors. For safety if nothing else. Just a question can blackberry grab proportional revenue? I do think costs will be higher than we would like. Strong traditional earnings may not emerge even if things go well. However if it pans out there is a very real possibility of a buyout. While we may not agree with tech valuations they do provide these companies with options to purchase lower priced rivals or bolt ons and still have the numbers make sense to investors. I still feel ffh is the way to go on this. If it falls who cares it wasn't priced in. If it success not only does nav go up but it could help ffh rerate. Between this and digit I at least have some hope. If the covid vaccine works I could see ATCO and fih moving up as well. I don't see enormous downside and yet I have a stock that could, with equity appreciation and rerating be a double.