no_free_lunch

COVID does put a strain on the countries resources, no doubt about that. However there is also an underlying issue that the health regions were already running at capacity before this all started. There were many stories of long waits pre virus. I feel COVID gets scapegoated for an inflexible, unionized and bureaucratic system. You can do whatever you want with non vaccinated, it's not going to fix the underlying issues.

That's not the same at all. If protesters show up outside or inside a classroom demanding it be shutdown then that is cancel culture. I actually don't agree with him on that one but he can make the argument as it's publicly funded. Defund the police is a whole different thing. That isn't cancel culture. I don't really care about that, you want to do that in your neighborhood go for it. Just stay away from where I live. We just want nothing to do with the left's policies.

The easy solution is to get rid of all these programs. You think you are helping people but you are just keeping them from getting ahead and creating a dependency on the state. Not just the welfare programs but government control over interest rates and all this government intervention. All that garbage has to go. All you are accomplishing is jacking up asset prices which benefits older and wealthier citizens and does net nothing for those starting out. Which is what you and your polite company are really after.

I guess if you think it's going to be a flat market you should focus on special situations. Merger arb, spinoffs, tenders, etc. You could probably grind out a few percentage points higher, if nothing else. Redeploy to growth opportunities during the inevitable busts. However there are no guarantees, we could also continue to have lopsided winner take all markets where you underperform if you don't own FAANG. It's a risk you have to take. Just pick a general proven strategy and stick to it no matter what. My strategy is to go after high quality stuff when it goes on sale. Plus special situations, if I understand them. Plus plain old value if they are returning capital. It got me through 2008 just fine.

I'm really not a Peterson fan but I'm still not buying what you are saying. The link you list is him refusing to have his constitutional rights violated. How does that relate to cancel culture?

Agree that with government intervention this is how it may go, a flat lined market for years. Is this not what has been happening all over the world for the past 15 years? It's just the states and a handful of countries that are meaningfully up since the 2007 peak.

I agree with the dual market theory. This is why I'm scared to hold indexes. I can find companies that are not overvalued but most stuff clearly is and the bubble will ultimately pop. In the meanwhile as we don't know how long this goes on for, it's crazy not to stay invested. Shiller PE has been high since around 2014. Think about the gains since then. To give a couple counter examples, Verizon has a 5% yield and a PE of 10. I don't know what will happen with their business but that is stock and industry risk. I don't see it as historically overvalued. C at PE of 8. Same rationale. Amgen is trading so where around 14x FCF. There are many more like these that get posted here. I don't see why these companies should trade at half their valuation. Clearly the valuation is confined to certain stocks although I will admit it is spilling over as value gains.

Where is the biodistribution study from Pfizer? That is the whole point of that study, to answer the questions raised here as to where the vaccine distributes. Why hasn't Pfizer made that information available? In general, you know I am double vaccinated but I find the lack of data from Pfizer to be very troubling. What possible reason would there be for them not to release thousands of pages of research if there vaccine really is safe.

TPB is interesting, i have had it on my list but just haven't done the research. Kind of a pick and shovel approach to pot investing, not bad at all. I like the brand. Do you know what happened in late October that caused the share plunge? Was that a stock split, spinoff, disappointing quarter.. Just trying to get up to speed.

Try wall street bets, lol. That said if you want to gamble look at calls on the 2 prison companies in the US. Can't remember the tickers. Michael Burry is in big on them and it's an interesting setup.

I am up a mere 20%. Crazy return but I see it as a failure given the markets performance. I am about 50% USA and 50% international. Generally had 20-25% bonds or cash during the year which was a huge anchor.

Sold AVB , apartment REIT, as it has run up 60+% over the past year and I just can't make the argument for it now. Rolocated the funds to FRPH, so more real estate. See the board posts on it but in short it appears well managed and at least reasonably priced.

It's really tough right now. Not much I am crazy about. Often I will sell something that is up and buy 2 new positions. As a result my portfolio is growing larger and larger, but quality is perhaps not going up. At current prices I do like citigroup (C). That would be my top pick. It is trading somewhere around 8x earnings and returning cash. It is very diversified geographically and due to size which suits me but still won't save it in a global rout. It's around 4% of my portfolio. I like twitter as well, saw it mentioned in one of the earlier posts. It is down by half from it's highs and if you squint and make some assumptions I could see it as currently trading in the 35-40x 2022 fcf range. Not for the faint of heart but I have a small position and may add. It is still growing aggressively and has a lot of potential. Dorsey, the former CEO and founder, stepping out is my main concern. I also still like FFH.to but am up so much on it that I don't know if I can exactly pound the table for it (thanks for your and Xerxes and others opinions on that one, really made my year). Also FIH, yes, I have a small position but I like it and I like India so I may add.

At what rate could you have got a variable mortgage? It is strange that the mortgage market is so different between two countries that are neighbors and similar economically. Maybe it is the legacy of fannie mae or perhaps Canada just has an oligopoly of a banking sector.

Thanks for the feedback. It is a 25 year mortgage. In canada you generally only lock in terms for 5 years. I find it hard to believe they will be able to raise rates by 100 bps but I guess certainly possible.

We are looking to upgrade our home and will be getting a mortgage. Curious peoples thoughts on variable vs fixed rates and this thread seemed relevant. These are my options, keep in mind I'm in Canada so no 30 year mortgages, I wish. 5 year variable 1.3% rate. 5 year fixed 2.2% rate. The variable is very tempting but I'm concerned what happens if rates start spiking. They would have to raise 100 bp before we lose with variable but who knows we are at historical lows.

I think high single digits 8-9% is going to be blowout over the next 10+ years relative to the indices. That is still 4-6% real return, really fantastic numbers for a realistic long term investor. I don't see how the S&P can deliver in excess of that given so much of it's return has been multiple expansion.

I don't know exactly but it trades at roughly 7x last year's premiums and is growing 40-50% a year. In comparison lemonaid is going for 50x premiums. So perhaps a bit overpriced but doesn't feel like it's in blue sky opioid induced bubble territory like other tech companies. It would probably trade 3 to 5x higher if it was based in the US.

I am with spekulatius on this. The timing of the ffh sell off seems to coincide with the plunge in yields. I just assumed investors are concerned as ffh holds large amounts of bonds. Concerns about the long term capital allocation performance of ffh have always been present so not sure that is a factor to recent weakness. I agree too that ffh needs to ramp up buybacks or else accept a low multiple. I would greatly prefer they cancel the dividend and apply that and all other excess capital to share buybacks.

Canada's central bank will hold the line while inflation runs at and beyond the high end of it's inflation target. I continue to believe that inflation will be primarily to assets and less so to consumer goods that make up CPI. It seems the central banks will just ignore inflation as long as possible and keep rates suppressed. I am not sure how it plays out, so many possibilities, but given that a number of commodities are now coming back down and given how long ago the money printing happened, I could see the inflation hit being transitory. https://financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-canada-keeps-interest-rate-at-0-25

I always have to respect Gundlach for speaking his mind. The only point I am not sure on is the US dollar falling. Maybe that's how it goes but I have been hearing that prediction for 15 years. I just have a hard time with it because of the money printing in all the other developed countries. Why would USD fall against the euro when their central banks are doing more or less the same things.

I don't believe the infrastructure bill had a defense component to it. The main criticism I have heard is only one quarter is being spent on anything resembling infrastructure. There are hundreds of billions earmarked to improve wages for health care workers, surely a worthy goal but in my mind mislabeled. The money being spent on R&d is very questionable , in particular when I compare what spaceX has done vs the black hole that is NASA. The thing that should probably concern us most is the buy America provisions.

Nice to see, hopefully it pulls on the stock. I can't help thinking viking writes more detailed analysis and gets his stuff "published" faster than these guys. Still I'll take it.

Agreed Blue Devil and I have read that they are trying to learn and copy from digit. However what I have seen personally is trying to build up some new system is influenced by management. I am not sure yet how much of this is the digit CIO vs the mousetrap. My experience with Canadian insurance is the field is ripe for efficiency improvements and so hopefully more the latter. Ffh book is up $60 USD just based on this transaction alone. Reported BV should be $500+ in q2, so do some math and we have book around $700 CAD vs share price today of $560. Still great upside relative to market.

Their performance has been sub-par. In the past, the valuation didn't seem that compelling as I dug into the financials. Haven't looked at them in a year or so.