no_free_lunch

Logistec $LGT-B.TO. Canadian based logistics operators with heavy port operations. Long history back to the 60's and share holders have done well for themselves. Trading very cheap right now despite their history. Results were strong, even throughout the pandemic. Not something I am an expert on but it feels like a Canadian value gem. Interested if anyone here knows them or has any opinions. Small float so you need to be patient to buy them and put in a reasonable limit order.

Is there not some risk to Russia in cutting off the natural gas? I was under the impression that they don't have sufficient pipeline capacity to sell all that nat gas to non Europe buyers. As a result, it seems this will hit RU quite hard economically and while they are in the middle of a war. I guess they could just take the pain but I think it's a bluff. Certainly if they go through it, Europe will take aggressive actions to counter it and I don't know if Russia will ever sell to them again. On a personal note, I hope it happens, let's get this thing going. There was a report yesterday that crypto transactions were outlawed recently in Russia. The far right idiots hold Russia up as this paragon of fiscal prudence as there is some sort of gold backing to the currency. Would such a country really outlaw crypto? To me it points to a system in financial distress. Again, it makes me wonder if they have the ability to stop selling to Europe.

It likely was, certain periods for sure. However it isn't happening now in the US. It seems everyone wants to go into the US, they are not running from them. None of that changes the fact that there was a genocide and it is sure relevant when we are discussing whether the Ukrainians would be better off laying down arms. Could you imagine if Germany was somehow invading Israel, telling them that it's actually better to just get it over with. Yeah right! It might explain some of the resistance too, if you understood the blood history. It's not just a territorial war, it's a fight to exterminate. Not to kill all Ukrainians but the upper class and anyone who would resist.

There was a famine in the 30's, intentionally created by the Russian government that killed millions of people Xerxes. It was designed to purge out resistance from the rural class. That is not fear mongering that is fact. Most countries consider it a genocide.

It's the same people as the soviet union, same tactics. Putin even was former KGB, those guys were in control the whole time back through the 30's and really back to the 1800's under the czar. There is a long history of disrespect for life over there. This is what happened in Chechnya, 250k dead out of 1.5m people. That is all under Putin too. https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-war/1010764/putins-brutal-record-in-chechnya-and-syria-is-ominous-for-ukraine You are also ignoring what even mainstream russia media is saying they will do. They talk about Ukrainian's as less than human and needing to be purged. Same shit that Hitler used to say. The reason I push this is it's right on Europe's doorstep and Ukraine will not hate on us for helping them. I would want to help all these countries with their problems but they don't want us in, their own people will attack us. It's not like that here. I think this selfishness we are seeing will come back on you all. Guys like Putin and Xi can see the fear and if we flinch then it just emboldens them. Right now Russia is contained and can't take the west in a fight but if we let them gain territories the calculation starts to change. There was a time where we had nothing to fear from China either, now they are a peer to the US, probably could have been prevented or slowed down but we handed it to them.

This is what happened the last time Russia ruled Ukraine. State induced famine that killed millions of people. if you don't want to help, fine fuck off. But do not start with this bullshit about oh they would be better off. Selfish clowns. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

You do not understand what is going on there. This is not a game. Yes, scorched earth is better than slavery and holocaust. Wake the fuck up and stop making this about yourself.

OK let's examine this logic change vs reality. So it's impossible for Putin to invade, but yet he surrounded Kiev for a month, he has taken Mariupol and this in spite of the west providing weapons. How did that happen if .. Putin can't win? I don't even want to get into the details. From a simple logic perspective, you are saying he couldn't invade Ukraine and yet.. he took huge portions, inspite of our weapons. Some people will believe anything, yeah I can tell.

If Russia is going to take Ukraine in the end then whose infrastructure is being destroyed?

MHK - US based flooring company. Not without some issues and housing could be a small headwind but at 7.5x earnings a lot is priced in. I could be wrong but I don't see US housing construction falling off a cliff, it seems somehow they will continue to build.

Aws, I see your point but I don't think narratives matter. To countries outside of Europe, why would they care, they don't. They just want cheap food. They will continue to transact with whoever can get them the best price. If they don't care then we shouldn't care about these countries either. Clearly not our allies. Let's just sell our food for max dollar and make the best of this messed up situation.

SU.to, I would list my reasons but all very similar to what Viking just said. I will just add that they are buying back shares and increasing production. Perhaps not the same quality as CNQ but still solid management. Trading around a PE of 5 for the year, based on analyst estimates.

I remember a time in Canada, just a few months ago, where donations to a given entity were outlawed. Donations could result in termination of your bank account and loss of access (temporarily) to your finances. As rare or as unbelievable as that may sound it did happen. So right there is a case where having some crypto would have been handy. As the governments start to crack down on cash transactions the utility becomes more valuable. Again, I 100% agree that it should not be valued anywhere close to where it is. I suspect bitcoin should be a lot closer to $100 than $100k. I am just making the point that there is some utility there, so not an actual ponzi scheme in the true sense of the word.

SD, you could apply the same rationale to the casino, lottery tickets, even a true ponzi scheme. If I knew a young person looking for that multi-bagger I would tell them to put together a portfolio of a few small/micro cap stocks where they actually know the company. Crypto is fine to put in maybe 3-5k for someone starting out, something that won't hit them but for someone to put multiple years of savings in, it can just wreck their life and what is the reasoning to believe it goes up?

I think there are 2 elements to crypto. There is the utility side, money transfer and payments if nothing else which is real. The other side is the ability to safely store your assets without government stealing it, sort of a gold alternative. The two tie together. The more it's used, the easier and safer it is to justify as a store of value. That said, who knows what the real value should be. Should bitcoin be $100 or $100k, I really have no idea. I think of the value of a given coin as being: the float (the amount of some crypto readily available) divided by the transfers that happen over some period. The more transfers relative to the float size the more valuable it should be, right? I don't know how to get from there to an actual number but I don't think that number is 0 for something like bitcoin or monero. Crypto has a utility so is not a total scam but the valuations are difficult to justify.

It is trading today at a 4% premium. Long term it has traded between -14 and +35 to NAV. Ideally you wait to a bit closer to NAV. I wouldn't count on a discount, however if it happens management may buy back shares. They value edge-point using some independent firm, which whatever, but the valuation is reasonable. It's currently valued at $245 million, and is paying around an 8% yield, $5m a quarter, based on past few years dividends. It's currently at the same valuation from about 4 years ago so I don't feel they are aggressive on it. It should be noted that Edgepoint has been a slam dunk, up something like 100 fold over the past 15 years. This is not a perfect investment by any means but it's a way for me to park a little capital and it will not follow the market perfectly, for better or worse. To me it's a diversifier.

To get in the specifics of the poll and just based on the terse article I saw, I question whether it's the same as Ukraine Russia. The poll was around how America would respond to a pre-emptive attack on a nuclear aircraft carrier. Those things have 5000+ personnel. It would be the equivalent of a pearl harbor. Not the same as Ukraine siding closer to NATO at all, in my opinion.

I am throwing this in general discussion as it's a closed end fund as opposed to a specific stock. The funds performance has been excellent and the holdings are very aligned with members on this site. Their top 10 holdings include dollar tree, berry global, auto canada, onex, and various other holdings you hear in value circles. You can have a look at their current portfolio at this link: https://cymbria.com/portfolio/ I have started a position and am just posting to get others thoughts.

I think you seriously underestimate the hurdle to use nuclear weapons. To try to compare some street survey to what a super-power will do is just silly.

To go back to the original question of the thread, I would not be surprised if inflation has peaked and if so, the stock market decline may peak over the next 3-6 months before receding to more typical 3-4% levels. I wouldn't be surprised to see stocks drop substantially further in that interval but after that, they probably stabilize and move up. I keep doing these litmus tests where I look at various companies and think whether it's reasonable for them to get 10%+ revenue increase needed to justify inlation. A lot of cases it seems a stretch to expect that kind of revenue bump. I can do the same experiment with friends jobs, again not many are getting double digit raises. Then factor in the colossal deflation from stock / crypto crashes, some future deflation from real estate cooling, it's tougher and tougher to see it going on. Perhaps the energy prices stabilize, the price increases ripple through the system (in smaller and smaller increments as you get further from oil usage) and things just stabilize. We are all a little poorer but inflation then returns to more normal levels.

Why make it complicated right? Nice picks. I went the other way from world class asset and bought some SNC.to. I just couldn't turn it up, too much of a bargain.

I appreciate the feedback on the banks. I'm not worried about where they go in the short-term, who knows that, but as long as it's reasonable for them to profit in a sustained 7-10% inflation environment with rising yields. Better even if they can somehow grow at / beyond the rake.

These are some good picks but with the financials, how do you get comfortable with them in an inflationary environment? Or maybe you don't see inflation as persisting? I just ask as I have a couple bank stocks on my radar as well but am not sure how well they do given it seems they will lose against inflation.

Bought a medium position in gold miner BTO.TO. The stock is down almost 50% from last year and now trades 10-12x earnings and pays a 4% dividend. It is a lower cost producer and has a conservative balance sheet. Also one of the few gold miners I have found that has actually grown since the 2007-2008 peak.

Anything in particular you want to draw out from the talk? I just don't have the hour to watch it myself but no doubt he is a legend and worth hearing.