no_free_lunch

I disagree that the invasion was not signalled. It seems there was a legion of Russian trolls making the case for it well in advance. I remember coming across comments on different platforms where they would advocate for war and lay out the various arguments. I am seeing the same type of accounts say specifically that they won't use nukes. Or at least the more respectable ones.

For what it's worth the Russian government and the Russian propaganda accounts I follow specifically mentioned and denied the possible use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine. I feel the arguments in its favor are written here by people who really are not following in detail the nuances of the Russian stance. I don't think Russia has even done everything they can with conventional weapons yet. They are not carpet bombing cities for instance. Despite threats of murder they continue to acquire and trade prisoners of war. None of the above is to give a pass to the many war crimes committed but just a reflection of the realities on the field. They are waging a very real propaganda war, one which some in our country and certainly in Russia aligned countries buy into. All attempts to ignore this in people's feigned understanding of Russian intention feel weak. I cannot stress that enough. You need to consider and spend some time looking at their perspective to guess at their actions. My theory is look for conventional escalation, murder of POWs, use of gas, other provocation first before nukes.

My take, based on reading random Ukrainian sources, is that they don't trust Russia to honor any agreements. I agree it's a proxy war but from what I can tell the average Ukrainian isn't interested in signing an agreement that won't be honored. It's not the US pulling the strings, the people there just understand what they are up against.

It's not about protecting a specific country. Are you guys really this naive? It's about allowing this monster to grow and to enable it through inaction. If Ukraine can be intimidated then why not Finland, Sweden, Moldova. The bigger the USSR gets the more of a challenge will be. Ultimately we could have people on this board saying are we really going to risk nuclear war over Poland, over Germany? Best to stop it now while we have strength. The US has been going toe to toe and risking nuclear war since the 50s. Vietnam, Korea , Cuba missile crisis. Nothing new , although the current administration hasn't been tested as such. I think it's definitely plausible but it won't play out as expected. It could be the US arming Ukraine with nukes , total economic sanctions including with all trading partners, and yes conventional attacks on Russia facilities.

I think that would go away immediately is the thing. That's a fairly catastrophic loss to Russia. They don't have much of an economy outside of energy sales. Until you come up with an analysis that factors that in I don't buy it. By death cult I meant their willingness to start WW3. Their whole strategy towards NATO assumes that as an option but I can't see it being done unless they were already facing launched nukes. After their withdraw from Kiev it seems clear they have very real limits and concerns for their troops safety. To go from that to a willingness to have their children annihilated, no just no. If we see behavior like we saw with ISIS, routine suicide bombings and fight to the death mentality I would be a lot more concerned.

I think you are under-estimating the economic side effects Xerxes. Trade with Europe, including NG, would be completely severed if they went nuclear. Trade with China and India if they continue to support Russia the same. From a nuclear war perspective, I don't buy it. Russia is not a death cult. They are already resorting to conscription and recruitment from other countries and we are only a month into the war. Clearly there are only so many Russian's willing to die and most have already made the commitment.

It's plausible of course but I don't see it. Putin , believe it or not, is still trying to maintain good guy status to his followers. It would destroy the narrative that he is saving Ukraine from itself. If it was done I assume Ukraine would destroy the NG pipelines for starters. It could draw the US into retaliation. I feel Sweden and Finland would have little choice but to join NATO. In the Pacific it would expedite South Korea and Japan nuclear weapon programs. Not sure Russia cares but China sure would. As a Russian ally it would put them in a awkward spot at a time they are pursuing economic and political and strategic advantage. I frankly feel it would piss them right off due to the blowback. I'm sure there is more but I feel it's like shuffling the position of all the pieces in the chessboard at once. All plans and calculations are reset.

For the record Mariupol defenders remain and continue to fight. Russia sources continue to brag about their success fighting them. Yet these defenders have had no resupply for 50 days and likely have no heavy weapons remaining. Yes they will likely surrender or die in the end but what is happening there is, in my opinion, legend.

It seems Russia can only play games when the rules are in their favor. Attack a Ukrainian city, fair play. Ukraine attacks a Russian city, out of bounds.

This could be significant. Possible reaper drones to Ukraine. My only concern is whether there will be enough given the scale of the fighting. However it all helps and for sure this will bring fear on the steppe. https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpeck/2022/04/13/ukraine-may-get-us-mq-9-reaper-strike-drones/?sh=4e025c355b3b

Bought some TWTR this week. It seems so cheap relative to its usage. Also a gamble that Musk doesn't bail and somehow multibags it. I think having your own satellite system combined with dominant social media could be a powerful combination. If Musk bails you are only paying a 15% premium. Evrn without him it could work out ok.

I don't buy that the Russian ship had an accident. Too much of a coincidence. I suspect there will be more accidents to ships in that area. For sure even Russia sources have confirmed it is damaged and will need repairs.

I suspect the surrender is true. They have been cut off for over a month and have been street fighting the whole time. They claimed they had no ammunition left a couple days ago and that surrender was imminent. Hopefully the Russian side allows the civilians who want to return to Ukraine to do so but I doubt that is in the cards.

I agree that you need to back it with something. I back my statements with donations of goods to the refugees in my city , yes they are here, and dollars to Ukrainian army. Ultimately it comes down to, war has a critical psychology element. This is why Nazi's had swastika, Russia has Z. The least we can do is have a stand with Ukraine. People need to keep their resolve when they see prices going up and when there are nuclear threats from Russia. Otherwise it becomes Vietnam and why do we have to make sacrifices.

The US has donated 2000 javelin AA missiles and 7000 ATGMs. Plus tens of thousands of rifles and body armor sets. I really doubt the offensive would have been halted without that. You like to play devils advocate which is supremely useful in investing but not as useful in geopolitics when lives are on the line. Regardless, I stand with Ukraine.

Yes. I am just suggesting there is an option to develop similar tech outside the mil industrial complex. Similar but cruder end product and in much higher volumes. It's a bit of a numbers game and you could see Ukraine getting 10s of thousands with this homegrown method.

I think tank killer swarms could probably be built today using commercial hardware and small teams. You can buy ones today for the $5k range that can fly 100 kmph and stay aloft for hours. They already have obstacle avoidance, autopilot and object tracking. Maybe just a little programming required to recognize mil targetsband an attack mode but it already has the basic setup via object follow features. There are some issues around GPS jamming and low light that need effort but it all has solutions available. I think humans can be hunted with the same or similar it's just still a bit expensive for that use case given the limited Ukrainian budget.

I agree. I just hope the iron curtain stays up. Been reading too many stories about rape and torture from the Russian side. Let's throw away the niceties, this is what it really is.

Roblox RBLX. Hard to justify but I see a lot of potential. Seen too many kids playing on it. I love that the video game content is created by the users for near free. Could be considered a social network.

On the war crimes trials , I tend to agree that it's pointless and perhaps worse than that. It seems it gives a false sense of control to the west and a false sense of action. To reiterate there is no ability to try Putin and company so let's not play games. This does not count as doing anything against Russia or for the victims in Bucha and elsewhere. I would rather government focus on helping Ukraine militarily and via sanctions.

Agree completely with this. I don't want to take any credit or sound braggy but apple, Amazon, google I had people with no investing knowledge telling me they were great companies. I invested in all a decade or more ago. I'm not bragging because I will tell you I sold all after 50-100% profits and missed the huge wave. It really was not that difficultvto identify them , trickier to hold on. A couple companies I feel could be big going forward are Atlassian and Roblox. I don't know about FAANG level but I think they do well operationally. They are insanely priced so it will take years for the company to catch up to the stock.

The link and excerpts are a transcription from RIA Novosti a Russia news agency. I'm curious if any Russian speakers can validate the original article. The special operation revealed that not only the political leadership in Ukraine is Nazi, but also the majority of the population. All Ukrainians who have taken up arms must be eliminated - because they are responsible for the genocide of the Russian people. Denazification means de-Ukrainianisation. Ukrainians are an artificial anti-Russian construct. They should no longer have a national identity. Denazification of Ukraine also means its inevitable de-Europeanisation. Ukraine's political elite must be eliminated as it cannot be re-educated. Ordinary Ukrainians must experience all the horrors of war and absorb the experience as a historical lesson and atonement for their guilt. The liberated and denazified territory of the Ukrainian state should no longer be called Ukraine. Denazification should last at least one generation - 25 years. Then the author goes on to detail exactly what needs to be done https://mobile.twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1510908227202002947

Thanks spek. It's a tough situation , I feel for Germany as this can affect them as much as Russia. Kind of a game of chicken feels like. Still I feel Germany can do more and perhaps they will. Even anything will help, it doesn't have to be quitting cold turkey. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-must-pay-war-crimes-bucha-germany-says-2022-04-03/

Thanks, I appreciate the clarification. Since you are in the loop I wonder how much of the NG is for heat vs electricity generation. Can Germany offset this by restarting their nuclear plants?

Nwoodmab, thanks for the link. I saw it on a telegram channel and then zerohesge as well. It's a pro Russian account so take it with that in mind. Could be us playing into psyops too. However often the stuff I see on this channel front runs reality so they have credibility in my mind. SVEZHESTI: "Russian gas pipeline Yamal-Europe starts reverse — Gazprom has stopped deliveries of Russian gas to Germany via the Yamal-Europe pipeline, and today the volumes began to flow in the opposite direction, according to network operator Gascade" https://t.me/svezhesti/43717