no_free_lunch

According to ISW, Russia is self documenting forced deportation of children from Ukraine, a move that is classified as genocide. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-16

Some serious strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure in the past couple days. It will be tough times for the population. That said they will get through it. With so much of the weapon supply coming from abroad, I'm not sure that Russia can stop the war effort in this manner. Would these strikes not be better expended on Ukrainian command and control or targeting weapons supply? Im obviously one sided but stepping back Russia seems weak and flailing.

Thanks for everyone's commentary. I will continue to hold. My only concern is management fees but as was noted we are still likely below high water mark. Just too cheap to ignore and yet BV should actually increase. I like the setup. It seems the various sanctions and disinvestment against China should be to Indias benefit as well. Probably a longer term phenomenon but always good to have tailwinds.

Agree with you both. There is also the time that Turkey shot down a Russian fighter along the Syrian Turkish border. That too did not result in ww3 or really any reaction from Russia so there is obviously some room for a NATO response here, if needed. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shootdown

The missile attack, regardless of intent, is not going to trigger article 5. I think pelagic is right it can be used to boost aid or direct air defense, maybe a few more sanctions but that's it. The Ukrainian sources I follow would obviously like escalation but nobody really seems to expect it.

For reference, what is the portfolio size? At first glance, I'm not sure that is a meaningful amount.

I don't think of Bandera as wonderful as he joined the Nazi cause. The Nazi's were horrible for Ukraine and labeled them as sub-human and fit for murder (of those deemed racially inferior) and enslavement of what was deemed the better half. Now that we are talking, I don't really care what you think but do Russian's view Stalin as "wonderful"? He was after all one of the greatest mass murderers of the 20th century. Not just a rhetorical question, it has direct bearing on Ukraine because of the genocide of Holodomor. https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/84991 You all can call me emotional but I will suggest you cannot understand Ukaine, the rationale for fighting, without understanding Holodomor and the potential for a second version (it is Russia after all) if they lose this war.

To the claim of Ukraine supporting anti jewish, anti polish sentiments, the proof against is looking at reality. The president of Ukraine is.. Jewish. Poland is one of Ukraine's greatest allies at the present time. Many Ukrainian refugees go there and there is weapon transfer from Poland to Ukraine. Just one example of what is happening on the ground. This stuff will only accelerate. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/14/ukraine-kidnaped-children-russia/ Xerxes, they will fight because of the above. Yes, the future may be even more bleak and yes maybe death for all but better to die fighting I suppose.

If we are going to talk USSR, here is what they did back in the 30s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor Here is how well they treated the poles. Remember that the USSR initially sided with Nazi germany, only switching sides when attacked. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Poland Annihilation of Polish officers after the war. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre That's all the history. If you think genocide are too strong of terms, this is what they are up against.

So let's break this down, it's now widely considered that what happened in North America to the aboriginals was some type of genocide. So my opinion, by making that link to Ukraine you are suggesting that there is a similar type of genocide there and that we should ignore it. This is the thing Dinar, maybe not you specifically but in my opinion people ARE aware of genocide (as the term is now used, not trying to link to something like the holocaust) and they are saying we should ignore it.

Some interesting analysis and a contrarian take. https://www.theonion.com/crypto-confidence-soars-after-ceo-defrauds-customers-ju-1849773647?utm_campaign=TheOnion&utm_content=1668192819&utm_medium=SocialMarketing&utm_source=twitterom/crypto-confidence-soars-after-ceo-defrauds-customers-ju-1849773647

Which side has been calling for Ukraine to surrender and saying Russia has the upper hand for the past 6 months. Not me, so which of us is stupid now? By the way, I never called you names, I just told you what your position made you, the proponent of slaughter of Ukrainians. I back Ukraine as it's the right thing to do, because they face annihilation. If Russia wins there it's not going to be good for Canada so it's also in my most selfish interest. In the middle east for sure i back the Iranian protesters, at least symbolically but what can we do? The one Iranian I know says something like, it's more complicated than you realize and it's none of your business and to stay out. Ukraine is not saying to stay out. I don't see the moral conflict there at all.

I call it like I see it. These accounts continue to take the side of Russia in an invasion that involves: rape , murder, torture and with the underlying motive of genocide of Ukraine as a cultural unit. It's subtle but that's what I see. "Oh I am not backing Russia, I am just saying..." Yeah right.

Why would I be civil to those backing genocide?

Rumors that it's going down in Kherson. Even the pro Russia accounts I follow are really struggling with this. This is big. This is the first major city to be liberated and is very demoralizing for Russia. Pro Russia accounts now focusing on some indeterminate future whrn conscripts kick in, full war is declared and the tides shifts back to them, what a joke. They are saying that actually Ukraine army is one of the strongest in the world, lol, not true but yes they seem willing to dievto avoid genocide if the people. Meanwhile hard to justify your Russiam kids dying when you aren't even succeeding in the mission. Ukraine side is saying this will put roads to crimea in range of himars. Perhaps they can slowly strangulate the Russians from this new position. I appreciate your perspective shhughes. I hope they can keep the momentum up. Xerxes you don't have anything intelligent to say here so stop barking like a poodle.

They are being clear headed? They are losing a city that they just annexed. They just told their countrymen that that is core Russian territory and now they can't hold their own territory. It's an embarrassment and this is where their "strong" army was too.

I don't want to get ahead of myself on this but very good to see. As I understand it, part of the success in Kharkov was the result of Russia fortifying Kherson region. For them to lose both is quite an embarrassment. I can see why Russia keeps talking tac nukes, it's defensive as they are revealing that they have no functioning military.

Traded my AMGN position for GOOG. GOOG has some risks but lots of levers too to offset any downsides. I will probably get killed on it for a bit but 17x earnings seems too cheap.

POOL. There are some headwinds in the short term but excellent long term growth and good management. As I understand it they are not as dependent on new construction as the stock price would imply.

I don't think you are exhausting your resources at all. A lot of that stuff going to Ukraine, is older tech from what I understand. From what i can see the US is using this as a way to build up the MIC, in preparation for war with China. This seems the rough equivalent of Cash and carry at the beginning of WW2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cash_and_carry_(World_War_II) . I know it's different, the US is donating now but the point is it's a way for them to get the weapons flowing and production started before the actual war begins. I guess you have to make the call but I believe that if you (the US) stand down the various evil empires of the world will be emboldened. Cliche but it's true. Remember that before the invasion of Ukraine, non interventionists scoffed at the idea that a nation state would launch a full scale assault on another but now it has happened. If you do nothing, you risk losing your various allies one by one and you will end up with a much larger rival or set of rivals that you won't be able to take on. I think Viking also brings up a good point regarding US foreign investment. I wonder how often the US has used it's advantage militarily to gain favorable trade deals over seas and squish down their rivals. Here in Canada we always hear about how the Avro arrow back in the 60s got shut down despite being way ahead of it's time on the "advice" of the US. We had good relations with the US too, we got the relative good end of the stick. I think a lot of that will get rolled back, a lot of US owned foreign domiciled resources will simply be repatriated, trade deals renegotiated, US cloud providers can be blocked, etc. The winner makes the rules.

I can respect wanting to avoid war. Concerns about the growth of the military industrial complex. Suspicion around the US motives. I get it. However, this is a real war and it was started by Russia. It's not a game. It's the first country annexed in Europe since ww2, as I understand. It's also right on Europe's doorstep and by a former and still formidable superpower. Whatever you do here, China is watching and will react accordingly. Maybe the time for navel gazing is after you contain the threat. I am going to repeat a few of my prior points because I don't feel they were addressed by all the bluster. Finland and Sweden opted to join NATO. They avoided this all through the cold war and just now decided to do it. Clearly this isn't them being snow flakes and virtue signaling. It's a true tell. The US influence on the rest of the world is bad but yet the US is flocked with migrants. It's where people want to live. I get that we can't make people accept the US way of life but yet they sure seem to want it and I quesion therefore just how evil they really are. Finally, if you want to compare the Ukraine to Rawanda. Ukraine WANTS the western system. Yeah they will reject some of the more modern social concepts, for sure, but they want the system. It will take generations to overcome the corruption but they are willing, so it's not at all the same as the US forcing it's will on these people. That stuff from Xerxes, I suspect it's intended to frame the west but I see Putin giving the pre war speech from the balcony. You can even dig it up online if you have a few minutes.

Not a global conquest, don't put words in my mouth. A threat to the US similar to the USSR. Ditto China. This is not a real stretch either and the two tie together. If China sees weakness towards Russia then, as they are stronger, they know they will not be resisted. For sure, Finland and Sweden believe that Russia is a threat outside of Ukraine.

Agree. it is so much cheaper to fight Russia in this method than taking US casualties. There is no choice either, you can maybe give up Ukraine and kick the can down the road a few years but it will just get worse. I think if it had been an easy win here then maybe Taiwan would already have been taken too.

Just one persons opinion but this commentary is airing on the main Russian news site of RT. This is why despite strategic bombing against them, Ukraine will keep fighting. It's not a war, it's the start of a genocide. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/23/rt-presenter-says-just-drown-children-promotes-genocide-ukraine/

I agree, SS is a much more accurate comp for the Wagner group. To support the claim of their link to the Kremlin, here is Wagner's tweet "are you ready". They put this vague threat out amongst the massive Russian force build-up, heightened tensions and warnings of an invasion from NATO. In fact it was tweeted out about 12 hours before the Ukraine war started. They literally front ran the invasion. In retrospect it was clearly a taunt. What is the point of being evil if you can't flaunt it right?