no_free_lunch

There is very little top line growth. They have been able to grow earnings per share by roughly double if you go back to 2007 era while paying a dividend but some of the growth is from improved margins. However, earnings should come and go. It's kind of a statistical bet. Onshoring should be a benefit to them as they seem to be have a lot of domestic US operations. Debt is quite low at around 2x earnings so they could probably do some share buybacks. The company is also supposed to spinoff it's health care unit, it's good to see management being proactive. The risk here is that there is a big lawsuit around faulty earplugs. You are speculating that they are able to settle the suit at a reasonable amount. This is not something I will claim to be an expert on, i appreciate the pushback.

Bought a little MMM (1% position). This is a stalwart, some moat, long history of slowly chugging forward. Not something you will get rich on but also priced to underperform. It's down over 50% from all time high and now trades around 12-13x earnings with a 4.7% dividend. Anyone else looking at this one?

On this one thing we all agree. Obviously this was done for the most simple minded political perspective, I think and hope it has backfired. Xerxes, I am curious about that PDF you linked but am afraid to click on the link! If possible could you attach the pdf or let us know the summary? Bluegolds, I did watch the first 10 minutes or so of your link but I find it hard to take this analyst seriously. I am not sure when it was filmed but he said point blank that all of south Ukraine (to Odessa) would be taken by Russia by fall. He says this would be in part due to Europe folding on winter / energy supplies. Quite the underperformance on that prediction. Why believe anything else he has to say when he is so confidently wrong?

I wonder how much of this is western propaganda, from what I can tell the Russians are still very slowly advancing in the Donbas. I also keep reading that RU artillery is 3-4x what Ukraine can put out. I really don't know what is happening but I think it is somewhere in the middle between western and russian propaganda. It's only when you get large scale changes, Kiev/Kharkiv/Kherson that both sides will admit to, that you can really discern the truth.

I fear that Russia is a long ways from the point of revolution or "rent seeking". Hope to be proven wrong but it seems this can continue. From what I have read, they are targeting conscription in the poorer parts of the country and from their ethnic minorities. In the major cities there is less of a push. Also the infamous use of prisoners as cannon fodder to buy time and keep the hot spots busy. The Russian sources I follow talk of a buildup of military production. Extra shifts, production on onverdrive, that sort of thing. Could be just propaganda but it seems plausible. I hope that western sanctions limit the effectiveness of their equipment but then it seems they can just buy from China or perhaps India to bypass, I am not sure how rock solid the sanctions are in that case. Certainly oil continues to flow. I still feel that Ukraine needs to push and take the pain to try to gain more territory and as fast as possible. Russia has this history of taking losses so better to try to grind them down before they can replace the qualified men and equipment. Maybe just maybe, there is still a military option and they can force some sort of near collapse of the Russian army. My main concern right now is actually some type of peace deal, not that I don't want peace - I do, but that it will never be honored and the fighting will just continue in a year or two. They need to get Russia out now and then fine, there can be a peace deal.

A little MDT. Just a 1% position, cheap at around 15 |PE, dividend, good history, a bet on return to growth and should do okay in the meanwhile.

I will just drop this one as if I am the only one believing it I'm likely wrong. For what it's worth, I was implying more the latter of what you said, the protests are completely independent but the western media and intelligence will take the opportunity and do what it can to further revolt.

Does anyone have any thoughts on the escalating protests in Iran? Perhaps I am over-focused on Ukraine but it seems the flare up in Iran seemed to roughly coincide with the start of weapon deliveries to Russia. Do people feel there is some kind of a link?

The article says that Ukraine managed to shoot it down, which is interesting. Maybe one of the faults with this strategy is allows testing of defense capabilities against these weapon systems. Not something you really want to reveal.

According to ISW, Russia is self documenting forced deportation of children from Ukraine, a move that is classified as genocide. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-16

Some serious strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure in the past couple days. It will be tough times for the population. That said they will get through it. With so much of the weapon supply coming from abroad, I'm not sure that Russia can stop the war effort in this manner. Would these strikes not be better expended on Ukrainian command and control or targeting weapons supply? Im obviously one sided but stepping back Russia seems weak and flailing.

Thanks for everyone's commentary. I will continue to hold. My only concern is management fees but as was noted we are still likely below high water mark. Just too cheap to ignore and yet BV should actually increase. I like the setup. It seems the various sanctions and disinvestment against China should be to Indias benefit as well. Probably a longer term phenomenon but always good to have tailwinds.

Agree with you both. There is also the time that Turkey shot down a Russian fighter along the Syrian Turkish border. That too did not result in ww3 or really any reaction from Russia so there is obviously some room for a NATO response here, if needed. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shootdown

The missile attack, regardless of intent, is not going to trigger article 5. I think pelagic is right it can be used to boost aid or direct air defense, maybe a few more sanctions but that's it. The Ukrainian sources I follow would obviously like escalation but nobody really seems to expect it.

For reference, what is the portfolio size? At first glance, I'm not sure that is a meaningful amount.

I don't think of Bandera as wonderful as he joined the Nazi cause. The Nazi's were horrible for Ukraine and labeled them as sub-human and fit for murder (of those deemed racially inferior) and enslavement of what was deemed the better half. Now that we are talking, I don't really care what you think but do Russian's view Stalin as "wonderful"? He was after all one of the greatest mass murderers of the 20th century. Not just a rhetorical question, it has direct bearing on Ukraine because of the genocide of Holodomor. https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/84991 You all can call me emotional but I will suggest you cannot understand Ukaine, the rationale for fighting, without understanding Holodomor and the potential for a second version (it is Russia after all) if they lose this war.

To the claim of Ukraine supporting anti jewish, anti polish sentiments, the proof against is looking at reality. The president of Ukraine is.. Jewish. Poland is one of Ukraine's greatest allies at the present time. Many Ukrainian refugees go there and there is weapon transfer from Poland to Ukraine. Just one example of what is happening on the ground. This stuff will only accelerate. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/14/ukraine-kidnaped-children-russia/ Xerxes, they will fight because of the above. Yes, the future may be even more bleak and yes maybe death for all but better to die fighting I suppose.

If we are going to talk USSR, here is what they did back in the 30s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor Here is how well they treated the poles. Remember that the USSR initially sided with Nazi germany, only switching sides when attacked. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Poland Annihilation of Polish officers after the war. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre That's all the history. If you think genocide are too strong of terms, this is what they are up against.

So let's break this down, it's now widely considered that what happened in North America to the aboriginals was some type of genocide. So my opinion, by making that link to Ukraine you are suggesting that there is a similar type of genocide there and that we should ignore it. This is the thing Dinar, maybe not you specifically but in my opinion people ARE aware of genocide (as the term is now used, not trying to link to something like the holocaust) and they are saying we should ignore it.

Some interesting analysis and a contrarian take. https://www.theonion.com/crypto-confidence-soars-after-ceo-defrauds-customers-ju-1849773647?utm_campaign=TheOnion&utm_content=1668192819&utm_medium=SocialMarketing&utm_source=twitterom/crypto-confidence-soars-after-ceo-defrauds-customers-ju-1849773647

Which side has been calling for Ukraine to surrender and saying Russia has the upper hand for the past 6 months. Not me, so which of us is stupid now? By the way, I never called you names, I just told you what your position made you, the proponent of slaughter of Ukrainians. I back Ukraine as it's the right thing to do, because they face annihilation. If Russia wins there it's not going to be good for Canada so it's also in my most selfish interest. In the middle east for sure i back the Iranian protesters, at least symbolically but what can we do? The one Iranian I know says something like, it's more complicated than you realize and it's none of your business and to stay out. Ukraine is not saying to stay out. I don't see the moral conflict there at all.

I call it like I see it. These accounts continue to take the side of Russia in an invasion that involves: rape , murder, torture and with the underlying motive of genocide of Ukraine as a cultural unit. It's subtle but that's what I see. "Oh I am not backing Russia, I am just saying..." Yeah right.

Why would I be civil to those backing genocide?

Rumors that it's going down in Kherson. Even the pro Russia accounts I follow are really struggling with this. This is big. This is the first major city to be liberated and is very demoralizing for Russia. Pro Russia accounts now focusing on some indeterminate future whrn conscripts kick in, full war is declared and the tides shifts back to them, what a joke. They are saying that actually Ukraine army is one of the strongest in the world, lol, not true but yes they seem willing to dievto avoid genocide if the people. Meanwhile hard to justify your Russiam kids dying when you aren't even succeeding in the mission. Ukraine side is saying this will put roads to crimea in range of himars. Perhaps they can slowly strangulate the Russians from this new position. I appreciate your perspective shhughes. I hope they can keep the momentum up. Xerxes you don't have anything intelligent to say here so stop barking like a poodle.

They are being clear headed? They are losing a city that they just annexed. They just told their countrymen that that is core Russian territory and now they can't hold their own territory. It's an embarrassment and this is where their "strong" army was too.