no_free_lunch

Not well but they would provide something. If you watch RU propaganda they really pride themselves on this sort of thing. Note that in Russia there is not really a significant resistance movement. It would eventually be the same in Ukraine. Castanza, trusting what the CIA says is madness. Of course they will try for a counter insurgency and I don't doubt it will exist if that's the argument. I just don't see it being effective once RU deploys all their tools. Far easier to fight a conventional war and if it's lost let's burn the country down and get as many people out as possible. Scorched earth, deny it to the beast.

I don't really disagree with much of this. I think though that you underestimate what Russia is willing to do. To your points, its items 1, 4, 5, 6 in particular that they will use. There are pro-Russian elements, we saw that when regions were taken over. So these elements will be empowered. Russians will be encouraged to emigrate. As I said, they will try to intimitdate or liquidate any Ukrainian nationalists. They would try to wipe out the Ukrainian identity once and for all. Far better to fight a conventional war than to get into that garbage.

I think it's ridiculous to NOT compare it to Chechnya. That was only 20-30 years ago. Putin had a hand in that. Of course they will use the same tactics. I will keep my ww2 comparisons, thanks. Russia is the same garbage pile ethically as the USSR. Human life doesn't mean much to them. Have you seen how they are treating even their own citizens, sending them to Ukraine with minimal training and coordination. I am not saying there will be no resistance movement but it's wishful thinking that will mean anything. Sure somebody might use an ied here or there. Not going to stop them from controlling the country. In the occupied areas they are putting people through filtration camps. Children are being separated from their parents. People are disappearing if Russia deems appropriate. I don't see how you get any reasonable resistance out of that. Your last comments are thrashing nonsense. Ukraine will fight when they have half a chance. They are not all going to suicide.

Castanza, It's all part of the Russian playbook. I am not talking about some RU soldier randomly killing someone. The executions are carried out by intelligence units in an organized fashion. They target dissidents, former soldiers and anyone else else capable who is not wholeheartedly pro Russia. That is what is emerging from Kherson, now that its re-taken. If you go around killing enough people you are going to squish resistance. It's also the same exact thing as in Chechnya. Putin was in charge of that too. It's actually likely to be more effective in Ukraine than Chechnya as Ukraine us culturally more similar than Chechnya. There are already pro Russia elements of the population. The Russians would empower those elements, it's going to be tough to resist that for very long. This was all done, multiple times in the 20th century. I don't mean to belittle but if you read the history, and I've read too much, it can be done. It's how the USSR was assembled.

I disagree and fear they could win and hold without western support. The soviets literally did this before in the 20th century. They can go and do mass executions and brainwash the remainder. You go kill 100k people and there will not be that many left with the will to resist. That was the Chechnya playbook recently and similar story in Poland during ww2, just to pick a few examples.

I was under the impression that they simply needed to rebuild capital ratios and could resume share buybacks this year. The way I look at it, either the shares stay down and then C eventually vacuums at rock bottom prices or else it moves up. The banamex sale is at a multiple of book while citi trades at a discount to book. Not sure how fair of a comparison that is but it provides some insight that the shares are quite undervalued. I think this could move up quickly at some point. All that said, it is called shitticorp for a reason so it is about a 3% position for me.

I continue to like C as well. I think they continue to mop up stairs and at some point turn the dividend on, the market would respond to a 12% dividend ir whatever it could be in a couple years. Maybe they can get acquired too? Not sure if it would pass regulations, but perhaps could happen from some outside pool of investors. Yiu can see how if you bought it at 9 or 10x earnings a good team could perhaps do very well. This scenario is knd of wishful thinking admittedly. I think ultimately it may rise when international does well.

The US will increase artillery shell production 6 fold over the next 2 years. The US is covering dual contingencies of a long war in Ukraine as well as a possible war with China. https://www.businessinsider.com/pentagon-increasing-production-of-155mm-artillery-shells-2023-1

Thanks bluegold. I see it as you describe. They are just parroting Russia propaganda and to slander an entire country to get a fu king sound bite does not sit well with me. Nevertheless wait 1 week and the same garbage will resurface.

There are nazis in America too. See Charlottesville, the kkk, that is reported in the media too.

A nazi country with a Jewish prime minister? Hmm...

Thanks for this, some good insights. I tried to get it to work on 10k info and it struggled with the size, the complexity of tables and then summarizing at the level I was after. It also would at times just plain make stuff up. I have no idea what I'm doing so could just be me but I'm still skeptical. I think, as you said, it needs to target very specific use cases. For now.

We can afford it. Its less than half a percent of gdp for most countries. Meanwhile we are building up our armaments industries. We do need European countries to carry a greater load but yes its quite doable. The alternative of course is to sign some peace treaty and Russia and allies learns they can get away with this shit.

Those first 3 examples, Ukraine is the equivalent of Afghanistan / Vietnam. The defender with nothing left to lose. In those cases to actually achieve superiority of production (if it happens), would further the gap. Also note that those were all guerilla wars, this is a conventional war. What we learned from ww2 is that when armies start to adapt similar tactics it does come down to some multiple of quality x quantity. If this was the Mongolian invasion then it would for sure be over already. We have already seen that these 2 armies are at least roughly comparable.

The best way to keep track of the arms is to send more advisers to Ukraine.

Given the discussion is on ww2, let's consider the rapid increase to weapons production during that period. In the US, aircraft production went up close to 30 fold from 1940 to 1944. This while increasingly the quality and complexity of the planes at the same time. For instance, heavy bomber production actually went up 500 fold. I don't see why a similar production curve (possibly much larger) cannot happen for equipment such as autonomous drones. In prior conflicts, what you usually see is this refinement and mass production of weapons that already existed at the start of the conflict. I think this will happen here as well and drones seem like an obvious candidate. This type of tech could change the importance of troop levels or at least act as a multiplier. US combat aircraft production WW2 1940 plane production: 3,611 1942 plane production: 46,907 1944 plane production: 96,270 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_aircraft_production_during_World_War_II

Well some Afghanis are helping Ukraine. The CEO of the company behind the switchblade drone is an Afghan refugee.

Russia can't get by without the west in a proper sense but I don't know if they have a choice . They dont have the tech industry and so will stagnate decades behind. Even the USSR couldn't come close to matching the west and now Russia is a fraction of that.. during the USSR period we got by just fine without them, can be done again. These posts to me just echo Russia. Just threats. Give us what we want or else.. You never give in to terrorists or bullies. Sure, armistice with condition of leaving Ukraine. Im convinced the west can neutralize the threat with sufficient tech. In the first gulf war the US and allies defeated Iraq with just a few hundred casualties. Iraq had a huge army too but technologically inferior. Tech matters and that's our edge. I realize Russia is not Iraq but it still kind of rhymes. We need to apply tech here and fast. I'm not a mil guy so I won't try to get more specific but I know revolutionary things are happening in ai and robotics. We need to get to the point where these threats of mobilization are just a humanitarian concern for the conscripts.

Point taken. India is not the hill I will die on so to speak.

Thanks for that spek, I didnt know all this, but could tell from the narrative shift that Europe would make it. I still have serious long term concerns about Europe energy supply. They are still very dependent on the Middle East and the US. The US drew heavily on the SPR to keep energy in check. Meanwhile the energy companies in North America are being disincentived to produce. We are not out of the woods. Even though Russia has a larger population, they will run out of the capacity to lose soldiers first. They are not automatons, this is not some theoretical where they can endlessly feed their population to slaughter. I've said it all before but I feel it will lead to revolt. To accelerate that, the west needs to keep sanctions on max, which they will. I think the next step is to go after India for their continued support of Russia. Why should the west do business with them? They need us as much as the west needs them.

I use analyst revenue and earning estimates as an upper bound while I am learning about a stock. That's it. I've heard they are very accurate predicting about one quarter out, FWIW.

I don't mean to argue with you but for my own benefit, where do you get this from? When I look through Realty Income's reports/presentations they say increases are either fixed percentage or inflation driven, but they don't provide any details. They also say that cap rates tend to follow interest rates with a 1 year delay, although perhaps that only applies when properties come up for renewal.

Dinar, these REITs that you suggest are certainly more in the spirit of the site. Clearly more reward potential than say AVB. However, it's hard to wrap my simple mind around them and assess the possibilities. I will take this in consideration and try to dig into them as I have time.

Thanks ourkid. This is reassuring. I am still not sure exactly how to compare that against say a nation-wide housing bust but I recognize those ratios are higher than what existed in the US pre GFC. LearningMachine, as i understand most provinces in Canada the banks have recourse for the mortgages. However, if things go ugly I have to think the feds or provinces will step in. They did in the early 80s when interest rates went parabolic. There are just too many homeowners and they vote, something would be done. It's hard to weigh it all out for me. I would need at least some OTM puts to feel safe with these. You could probably use the dividends to pay for the puts and hope for capital appreciation.

REITs are really starting to get their prices hammered. Apartment ones in particular seem very compelling to me given their relative safety. I think either we have inflation and rents move up to offset the rate bump or we don't have inflation and rates move back down. Either way, this seems a decent entry point for the space. I like Avalon Bay (AVB) an apartment REIT with properties mainly on the east/west coast. They have a long history of slowly raising the dividends (not all REITs have this kind of history) and are not particularly levered. They have also traded substantially higher (up to 60%) from where they are today. Does anyone else have a fav REIT? Are there any stand out REITs with a secret sauce that manage to get alpha over their peers?