no_free_lunch

Just wanted to pop in and say CN rail, CNR.TO, is dirt cheap. Yes there are tarriffs and I dont know the immediate future but they are trading around 17x earnings and its a monopoly. I wont try to finesse the details but I see it as severely undervalued which is very hard to find these days. I feel it could move up 30-40 pct over the next year and would still be reasonably price. I who know but speculating I could see it hitting 15-16x earnings the next year which would open a huge run way, not that we can expect it to play our right away. Has been trading much higher, almost 40-50% earlier this year. I do not see many opps like this tbh...

Primary trading account, non registered, has this allocation roughly.. - BRK 25% - FFH 20% - BAM complex, 16% - ELF.TO 12% - CNR.TO 7% - bits and pieces make up remainder, all 2% or smaller

All I know is investing is still very difficult. The performance of the indices is still very difficult to match given how concentrated returns can be.

Thanks for the lulu mention. This is a very uniqe company. One of the few fasion type firms i might invest in. They do their own thing and the stock will gyrate even without tarriffs but i think they will find a way.

Tarriffs are the biggest and most egregious based on classic economics. Support for unions in many states, albeit weak support. Military funding in general which is at huge dollars. Yes leaving social security in place, although understandable.

So I am a bit of a trump fan but I will admit there are a few truths here. Things I think you are ignoring include that he has only been in power for 3 months and you are talking stats that lag significantly. Many of the issues around debt were done under Biden so you are insulting Democrats. The reforms that are needed are being blocked by Dem judges. If we really want to criticize trump we need to wait to the end of his term and let him carry out his mandate in the meantime, at least for the economic issues. If we are to criticize him maybe you can explain why every other country in the world, Canada, EU, almost any country except maybe Norway, is such a shit show. What is the common denominator there.. it is socialism. Trump is trying to walk the line between socialism and staying elected and he should be criticized for some of his leftist stances but then what alternative do you provide?

He is a globalist. What is his solution? Buy our rare earth minerals and tech from China? We need to move away from these impalances and abuses. We need to find a way to complete with China and really all countries but we cannot let them play the long game because that leads to oligopolies from Chinese (it is not just China but they are the biggest and most capable). Ultimately those oligopolies, as we know, can set their price when they feel like it, or they can keep the price low, subsidize, keep their people poor but crowd us out until they feel like standing up their monopolies.

I am not the expert either but what I read is that the tech is stalling. There are reports that the latest version, presumably o3, is using 10x the compute and yet the results are now hard to distinguish from the older version. Perhaps they are starting to plateau? Or perhaps the AI is secretly using the compute to build skynet? Regardless, I do not doubt the tech will advance but it may be more incremental from here. It may move to an efficiency drive, eg deepseek. I predict deflation in this sector. This always happens in tech, where the technology comes out and then they find ways to do it better, faster, stronger.. maybe not the last one. Maybe better faster cheaper anyways.

This is great to see. I would like to see them review these $400 hammers the pentagon make too. Kind of joke but its true, the savings from doge could get into the hundreds of billions once they get going. Americans wont see the savings, they will get redirected but you should end up with a stronger MIC. All we need to do is look at what Russia is paying and instead of multiplying the russian price times 10 maybe we can find a way to produce at just 5x the cost? That is not a dig against Russia, its a challenge to the west. We have to remember that if we ever have to truly fight the enemy is not going to care about the sticker price on the jet or tank, they will just try to destroy it.

In my limited experience, the engineer is making $100-180k CAD give or take, which is pretty good. It does depend substantially on where they work from. Some routes are much more lucrative than others. Otherwise these guys dont really like the job it seems but the money is so much better than the alternatives. There are two roles, engineer and conductor. The engineer is more senior and makes quite a bit more and has a cushier gig but more responsibility. You start as a conductor and eventually become an engineer but it can take a decade or more. Just based on my conversation with others.

I guess the one pro I see is that US stocks are selectively crashing, on a stock by stock basis. So BRK is barely down while more cyclical stuff is down 30-50%. At least this makes a bit of sense.

Agree. Have a little experience with this. These trains haul over 100 cars, the per car or per ton cost has to be minuscule. They can probably replace with AI but then you still have a bunch of sensors, road signs, humans cutting tracks, track maintenance, equipment maintenance. It almost seems easier and cheaper just to pay the 2 guys on the 100-150 car train.

Just grab as many fish as you dare. I am buying. US and Canada and bits of Europe. Love japan and need to buy from there, have to admit ntdoy feels eternal.

I have to say that if this is about national security, probably the last thing that should be exempted are phones and chips. I have always been a trump fan but come on, why is he making it so difficult. Am I missing something?

Everyone likes to talk and thats your right but i see strong arguments againts tarriffs and you yourselves are now ignoring these arguments. Meanwhile we all continue to invest in the US. Proof is in the pudding, e.g. follow the money not the rhetoric.

Have a large position, am down, still feel fine with this pair.

Hou are following a rumor based on speculation.. I mean there is so much going on right now lets stick with the facts.

This makes a lor of sense and is probably what the smart money should do.

Respectfully, I strongly disagree on the trade. There were $5T of trade deals announced over the past 3 months. If that comes to pass, there is going to be significant production in the US and while I dont know how it winds through the stock market and to profits it should benefit the US economy in some way.

I believe that it relates to a corrupt industry. Look at something like the approval of the drug for alzheimers, totally indefensible. Beyond that, just guessing but perhaps there just has not been a lot of success stories, at least in the areas I follow. Meanwhile you have 20 year patents, its not that long, and then the drugs are patent free. I am not a huge fan of the industry, you have to be very careful. I am only following due to the huge down movement and that they trade for near book.

Go ask your doctor to provide safety data on the COVID vaccine. I did. See what happens. You will get nothing...

I have no idea the amounts. What does it matter, are we really debating there are counter tarriffs from our own government? My point is simply that we are all being hypocrites and ignoring that everyone in the world is doing the same thing but only the US gets called out. What I would like is to align with the US, kick China away and build trade around that alliance.

Let us not forget that the EU and Canada are putting tarriffs on the US as well... For some reason everyone else gets a free pass but we discuss what the US does. Canada could certainly just not stand up tarriffs and tell the US they are being stupid. We voluntarily tarriff as well. Lets at least be consistent with the rhetoric.

Agree. We have been talking for over a decade that the US market is way overpriced, or at least parts of it. There will be opportunities ahead, just as long as we do not panic. As a Canadian I am a bit worried but thats a separate thing, I think the US will do great. There is going to be a huge domestic investment boom, it has already started but most are ignoring it for political reasons.

I have a tiny position in $CRSP, more for tracking, but at current prices may make it a small position. Down 90% and as you say it trades near value of investments. This thing is not pricing anything in and to be fair it will probably just burn cash but any good news could send the stock up. To be honest I view it more as angel investing than value investing, I dont really expect to get my capital back and am more just trying to help out. Will size accordingly.