no_free_lunch

Well some Afghanis are helping Ukraine. The CEO of the company behind the switchblade drone is an Afghan refugee.

Russia can't get by without the west in a proper sense but I don't know if they have a choice . They dont have the tech industry and so will stagnate decades behind. Even the USSR couldn't come close to matching the west and now Russia is a fraction of that.. during the USSR period we got by just fine without them, can be done again. These posts to me just echo Russia. Just threats. Give us what we want or else.. You never give in to terrorists or bullies. Sure, armistice with condition of leaving Ukraine. Im convinced the west can neutralize the threat with sufficient tech. In the first gulf war the US and allies defeated Iraq with just a few hundred casualties. Iraq had a huge army too but technologically inferior. Tech matters and that's our edge. I realize Russia is not Iraq but it still kind of rhymes. We need to apply tech here and fast. I'm not a mil guy so I won't try to get more specific but I know revolutionary things are happening in ai and robotics. We need to get to the point where these threats of mobilization are just a humanitarian concern for the conscripts.

Point taken. India is not the hill I will die on so to speak.

Thanks for that spek, I didnt know all this, but could tell from the narrative shift that Europe would make it. I still have serious long term concerns about Europe energy supply. They are still very dependent on the Middle East and the US. The US drew heavily on the SPR to keep energy in check. Meanwhile the energy companies in North America are being disincentived to produce. We are not out of the woods. Even though Russia has a larger population, they will run out of the capacity to lose soldiers first. They are not automatons, this is not some theoretical where they can endlessly feed their population to slaughter. I've said it all before but I feel it will lead to revolt. To accelerate that, the west needs to keep sanctions on max, which they will. I think the next step is to go after India for their continued support of Russia. Why should the west do business with them? They need us as much as the west needs them.

I use analyst revenue and earning estimates as an upper bound while I am learning about a stock. That's it. I've heard they are very accurate predicting about one quarter out, FWIW.

I don't mean to argue with you but for my own benefit, where do you get this from? When I look through Realty Income's reports/presentations they say increases are either fixed percentage or inflation driven, but they don't provide any details. They also say that cap rates tend to follow interest rates with a 1 year delay, although perhaps that only applies when properties come up for renewal.

Dinar, these REITs that you suggest are certainly more in the spirit of the site. Clearly more reward potential than say AVB. However, it's hard to wrap my simple mind around them and assess the possibilities. I will take this in consideration and try to dig into them as I have time.

Thanks ourkid. This is reassuring. I am still not sure exactly how to compare that against say a nation-wide housing bust but I recognize those ratios are higher than what existed in the US pre GFC. LearningMachine, as i understand most provinces in Canada the banks have recourse for the mortgages. However, if things go ugly I have to think the feds or provinces will step in. They did in the early 80s when interest rates went parabolic. There are just too many homeowners and they vote, something would be done. It's hard to weigh it all out for me. I would need at least some OTM puts to feel safe with these. You could probably use the dividends to pay for the puts and hope for capital appreciation.

REITs are really starting to get their prices hammered. Apartment ones in particular seem very compelling to me given their relative safety. I think either we have inflation and rents move up to offset the rate bump or we don't have inflation and rates move back down. Either way, this seems a decent entry point for the space. I like Avalon Bay (AVB) an apartment REIT with properties mainly on the east/west coast. They have a long history of slowly raising the dividends (not all REITs have this kind of history) and are not particularly levered. They have also traded substantially higher (up to 60%) from where they are today. Does anyone else have a fav REIT? Are there any stand out REITs with a secret sauce that manage to get alpha over their peers?

How do you weight the risk of a recession to the banks? I can't help thinking of all the European / US banks that had to raise funds and dilute the shareholders during the GFC. Is that not a real risk in Canada?

I agree with Spek's view on Maidan protests being the point where Ukraine threw off the Russian yoke. Russian influence is still there today, via religious leaders and political leaders, Ukraine continues to push that out. The war validates the thesis that there is no room for that viewpoint. How can you tolerate a side which will send in an army and use strategic bombing against you if you disagree. When the other side is democracy and a more prosperous west, it seems a clear choice.

I like Logistec LGT-B.TO (Canadian port operator / oligopoly), onex.to (Private Equity), elf.to (insurance), and AVB (apartment REIT). I don't have a top pick per se but I have positions in all of those and they all have their merits at current prices. Logistec in particular is just crushing it right now and will likely be ignored but is due a significant re-rate. I view it as a long term hold that should out perform the market and yet has lower beta to it.

I have no evidence to back this up but I have heard that those fleeing are correlated with tech and other high skilled workers. So the issue is more the loss to the Russian economy than to the recruiting pool and that will in time translate to your last point around military supply.

I am up by some small margin, maybe +2%. Big contributions from FFH, AMGN, NOC. Offset by some nastiness in other names. All in all, I am thrilled with the results and most on here should be as well. If you think about it, we managed to navigate the resetting of interest rates back to 4%+, the bursting of the tech bubble and some significant geopolitical events. Or another perspective, I am more comfortable right now with the future outlook that I was 12 months ago. To be in this situation with the portfolio intact is a treat. Good luck to you all next year. I continue to learn so much and for sure I would have posted much weaker, more index like results if not for the commentary I find here.

I am starting to look at real estate, probably an apartment style condo to keep it simple. Rents are up 15% or so and prices are down ~10%. It is suddenly appealing from an investment perspective.

On the women fighters, it is not surprising dear UK. Some people, in any society, are naturally very brave and coupled with Russian atrocities it will draw them into the conflict. To refute the white washing filth around Russia being there for some purpose other than to conquer and subjugate, see this article from UK intelligence. Or of course, just use common sense and basic facts around the events at hand. https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-captured-russian-documents-reveal-moscows-10-day-plan-to-take-over-the-country-and-kill-its-leaders-12759836 It all ties together, Ukrainians know the score, Russians support it but are not really willing to die despite all their bluster. In the end, I suspect Russia will be forced to withdraw and will be that much more of a shittier and weaker country as a result of all of this. The best part is that the west gets the top tier of the Russian population via immigration.

He is not being melodramatic. The country is at war and there is clearly an invasion under way. Have you looked at a map lately of all the Russian forces in there? Clearly it's an attempt to subjugate. Poorly though out and executed, as is the norm for Russia, but clearly that attempt was made and is ongoing. Guerilla movements can be put down by a determined opponent who is willing to use torture and murder. It's been done before, by Russia in fact to Ukraine just 60 or so years ago. They can do it again if they are willing to kill everyone they suspect. In fact that's exactly what they are doing in the areas they control, even as we speak.

I disagree Dinar, Russia is still a threat. Russia is openlty threatening the US with nuclear annihilation. On the USSR, some of the propagandists, Dugin for instance, aspire to be something similar to the USSR and with this invasion of Ukraine, Putin is sure acting like the USSR (or similar) is the destination. This is further reinforced by the ongoing threats against Kazakhstan. Russia is an ally of convenience to China and weakening them is clearly to the US benefit prior to conflict with China. I agree that europe is not the US, it would just be nice to see them get their big boy pants on and take care of their own business rather than recklessly attack and then depend on the US. Europe has now openly admitted (by virtue of supplying arms in minor doses compare to America) that they rely on the US for their defense and that such defense IS needed.

At some point, Russia may run out of suckers and it can lead to revolution. It's one thing to talk ra ra let's go get the nazi's but how many Russian's really believe that? It doesn't seem like people are rushing to volunteer given conscription and prison soldiers. The communist revolution in 1917 was caused by the first world war casualities, that was a big part, you could have something similar happen here. This is not an existential crisis and people know that as is evidenced by the lack of support. It ends when the russian population says enough. For sure though the western media is far too optimistic and paints Russia as weaker than it is. I do not understand why, who does it benefit if it's not true? Maybe it's so that the general public can feel they are closer to victory than reality.

I agree. I suspect there is half truths to these articles, it's really to shock the western public so they are more receptive and understanding to the defense production requirements. Yes, we will have to build more defense capacity for a more conventional war. Note that they have been saying this type of thing for somewhere around 6 months and yet Ukraine keeps getting supplied. From an economic perspective, this further ties in with in-shoring of production. I would prefer we could spend our energies on something other than defense but then we won't have a "we" if we can't fight.

On this board, on social media, the argument from day one has been that supporting Ukraine will just make things worse. Yet they now have retaken some of the seized territory. You can see that so far that logic has proven wrong. I don't see why patriots are going to tip the scales, it's not like it will completely seal the skies. Just give them the weapons they need so they can finish this thing.

Zelensky himself may overplay his very particular role but the people of Ukraine often have no electricity and are subject to bombings, that is a fact. Hopefully it takes longer than 30-40 years for things to heal. Part of the issue is not learning from the Holodomor of the 30s. The only lesson here is never to trust Russia.

Agreed. This was the thread that came up when I searched, didn't realize there was another one in the proper section.

Onex Q3 numbers came out about a month ago. Small loss in Q3 with NAV now at $124 vs share price of $64. NAV should be higher now too as the NAV was as of Sept 30 and higher equity prices since then. Large scale share repurchases are ongoing. with around 4% of shares repurchased in the last 4 months. This equates to a 12% annualized share repurchase rate. At 50% of NAV these are very lucrative use of capital. The average repurchase price is $66, above current price. As for the underlying business fundamentals, not sure entirely. Perhaps higher interest rates will keep them down? I don't know but I continue to hold and will probably add if it stays depressed. https://www.onex.com/static-files/62dddfa6-5176-4090-90bf-fd46093c5235

The above is a Kazakhstan journalist, from what I understand. Shows the potential (hopefully does not happen) for a second front in Kazakhstan. It all ties into Ukraine and this is one reprecussion. The bully does not have the same power now that they are stood up to. Russian Ambassador to Kazakhstan: Nazis / nationalists live in Kazakhstan. if necessary will conduct a special military operation. Kazakhstan Journalist: God forbid you decide to come to us for an easy victory. You will not have an easy victory. The entire Kazakh steppe will be strewn with the corpses of your conscripts.