no_free_lunch

I have quite a few picks I could throw out but they are all discussed often on this board. One you hear less often is VieMed (VMD.to). Caters to air supply systems for home treatment of breathing issues. Between an aging population and a desire to keep people out of hospitals they have strong secular tail winds. Canadian based but focused on US market. They are not crazy cheap but then COVID hit their business model as they require meeting customers in person. They are starting to bounce back, and analysts have them around 15-16x next year earnings. Should be able to grow 15-20% per year going forward and historically have grown in the 20% range.

Some info on Russia's links to Nazism, in particular via the Russian mercenary group Wagner. For those who are not familiar, Wagner is a mercenary unit that alledgedly reports directly to Putin. I view it as somewhat analagous to Putin's brown shirts. In Ukraine, where Russia is advancing (currently Bakhmut) it is usually Wagner that is involved. https://time.com/6180611/white-power-mercenaries-fighting-the-lost-cause/

I don't know about the others but Fortis should be ok. They have a low debt ratio relative to their peers and it's a long debt maturity profile. I think 80% is 2026 or later. Meanwhile they continue to make investments in capacity and emission standards. If the government wants the green revolution to happen they will need to continue to make these investments and to be compensated. If not, they will pull back on investment as leverage against the regulators. This is definitely a headwind but should be ok and they have handled higher interest rates than today in the past.

Bought some Exor.

I suspect the pipelines were taken out by the US. It's to their advantage and Biden said they would do it. From an American perspective, they have paid for Germany's defense for the last 70 years. Germany boasts of how advantageous it is economically. However, they then go against US interests with their nat gas purchases from an American enemy. They then refuse to ante up in any significant way to the war in Ukraine despite it being more their issue than Americas. Why would the US accept that? I can see how America might not be sympathetic and will question Germany's decision making skills. Once you are there, not a big step to remove their ability to negotiate with Russia completely.

The success of the Ukrainian offensive in the north is proof that the weapons supply is being used. How much exactly I don't know but that's not what matters. Ukraine's own weapons system is damaged, even by Russian reports, and simply can't keep up. It's the allies weapons that are allowing Ukraine to gain the offensive. If Ukraine is on the offensive, of course the weapons are being sent to the front. Even Russia admits the weapons are in use. It's one of the reasons they threaten the West. So let me examine the counter argument here. We are both 1) antagonizing Russia by providing weapons and support to Ukraine and 2) the weapons that are sent are just being stolen. These arguments aren't compatible. Whatever, the Russian side just blurts out contradictory nonsense to try to push their argument. The west's weapons are turning the tide, full stop.

Indeed. Slowly the evidence piles up. If Ukraine is really only involved because the US is pushing them, why are so many going to their death? If the equipment is all stolen, how are they holding the entire Russia army back? If they really have 170k casualties (one claim I read on social media), how do they keep fighting. The issue I have here is not Tucker but those blindly following him with no idea of Ukraine, it's history and no real interest other than to back their party line.

I am no expert but what I see from the few Russian accounts I follow is: - Acknowledgement of the recent Ukrainian victories and Russian withdrawal. - Blame is placed entirely on NATO weapons and intelligence. - They are doubling down on their commitment to the conventional war and believe this is a temporary setback. - The message is that as it's a war against NATO, those who oppose it internally are traitors. - Large scale attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure are ongoing. They will likely raise the bar in this regard.

People have been speculating since day one that Ukraine is about to lose and it's best if they lose quick and in the rare the event that they don't lose then they certainly will get nuked. All theories so far have been proven wrong.

I agree on the 2000-2008 period presenting opportunities but will it look like that or could it be more like the 2008-2012 period which was a lost half decade. For Berkshire and for many value investors that I followed at the time, they were completely flat over that period. That was a broad decline and I don't see why a true lost decade would not be similar. It seems that with the prior lowering of interest rates, a lot of asset growth was moved forward, it's got to be a major headwind now that interest rates are reversing. I will keep doing what I'm doing but I'm not super optimistic.

It's just not their citizens, how are the business going to continue to function. Sure some software business will be fine but doesn't germany manufacture a bunch of products and isn't energy a large component. It seems this is going to ratio their businesses.

Nailed it.

I was under the impression the mortgage boycott only applied to buildings under construction, where the buyers somehow took out a mortgage before completion. So just a small part of the market and more justifiable for them not to pay. In general I am far from bullish on China but as has been said, we have been hearing these stories since 2007. Given the states ability to control and manipulate, I wonder if the USSR isn't a better comparison. Yes, China has a large free market while USSR next to none, but in both cases you had this powerful state control. In the case of USSR, there was never really a crash per se, it just stalled out and become dysfunctional. It started to lose more and more ground to the west. Perhaps you will see something similar in this case. The one caveat being that the west has increasingly more government intervention (in particular Europe) and may follow a similar path itself.

Onex almost closed the gap to book earlier this year but has taken a dive with the market and is now at $68 vs $115 last reported book (March 31). BV is going to be lower with the market drop, but probably still in the $100 range. This seems to be a good entry point and we are being offered 50% upside to 52 week high. The franchise has performed well, they have consistently grown bvps, either through net asset growth or share repurchases. Over 10% was repurchased during the COVID crisis and they are likely buying as we speak. Clearly some risks around the ability of PE to perform exits with a weaker market / higher interest rates but it has made it through the GFC and the 2002 tech crash, so I feel it will push through this as well. See the KKR thread for additional context around the industry at large. This is a medium position for myself.

Your take on this, Xerxes and Bluegold, just reflects that you view it as an intellectual exercise. "What is the price of freedom?", "What would I do to defend it?", "Is Russia better than the west?", etc etc etc. When push comes to shove and your people are getting slaughtered none of that matters. You just do what you got to do. Let's not forget all the war crimes committed during ww2 by allies. Dresden, hamburg, nagaski, hiroshima, all horrible and probably worth it from the west perspective.

This is spot on. It's fascinating to watch as it's a giant experiment in economics. It seems that wherever, however the government intervenes the funds generally end up benefitting a random set of the upper class, e.g. big tech as the big winner from lockdowns. Whatever funds are distributing to the masses, it ultimately gets captured by the wealthy. However, with the accountability issues of free money we are probably all a little worse off. With inflation, it feels to me that it was one-time due to lockdown and that if government can continue to keep it's paws off it should dissipate. Certainly on the commodity sides, many of the companies are sitting on record margins and could take large priced drops while staying in the green. Perhaps there really is a goldilocks opportunity, in the US, to slow the rate increases down and settle near these levels for the time being.

Logistec $LGT-B.TO. Canadian based logistics operators with heavy port operations. Long history back to the 60's and share holders have done well for themselves. Trading very cheap right now despite their history. Results were strong, even throughout the pandemic. Not something I am an expert on but it feels like a Canadian value gem. Interested if anyone here knows them or has any opinions. Small float so you need to be patient to buy them and put in a reasonable limit order.

Is there not some risk to Russia in cutting off the natural gas? I was under the impression that they don't have sufficient pipeline capacity to sell all that nat gas to non Europe buyers. As a result, it seems this will hit RU quite hard economically and while they are in the middle of a war. I guess they could just take the pain but I think it's a bluff. Certainly if they go through it, Europe will take aggressive actions to counter it and I don't know if Russia will ever sell to them again. On a personal note, I hope it happens, let's get this thing going. There was a report yesterday that crypto transactions were outlawed recently in Russia. The far right idiots hold Russia up as this paragon of fiscal prudence as there is some sort of gold backing to the currency. Would such a country really outlaw crypto? To me it points to a system in financial distress. Again, it makes me wonder if they have the ability to stop selling to Europe.

It likely was, certain periods for sure. However it isn't happening now in the US. It seems everyone wants to go into the US, they are not running from them. None of that changes the fact that there was a genocide and it is sure relevant when we are discussing whether the Ukrainians would be better off laying down arms. Could you imagine if Germany was somehow invading Israel, telling them that it's actually better to just get it over with. Yeah right! It might explain some of the resistance too, if you understood the blood history. It's not just a territorial war, it's a fight to exterminate. Not to kill all Ukrainians but the upper class and anyone who would resist.

There was a famine in the 30's, intentionally created by the Russian government that killed millions of people Xerxes. It was designed to purge out resistance from the rural class. That is not fear mongering that is fact. Most countries consider it a genocide.

It's the same people as the soviet union, same tactics. Putin even was former KGB, those guys were in control the whole time back through the 30's and really back to the 1800's under the czar. There is a long history of disrespect for life over there. This is what happened in Chechnya, 250k dead out of 1.5m people. That is all under Putin too. https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-war/1010764/putins-brutal-record-in-chechnya-and-syria-is-ominous-for-ukraine You are also ignoring what even mainstream russia media is saying they will do. They talk about Ukrainian's as less than human and needing to be purged. Same shit that Hitler used to say. The reason I push this is it's right on Europe's doorstep and Ukraine will not hate on us for helping them. I would want to help all these countries with their problems but they don't want us in, their own people will attack us. It's not like that here. I think this selfishness we are seeing will come back on you all. Guys like Putin and Xi can see the fear and if we flinch then it just emboldens them. Right now Russia is contained and can't take the west in a fight but if we let them gain territories the calculation starts to change. There was a time where we had nothing to fear from China either, now they are a peer to the US, probably could have been prevented or slowed down but we handed it to them.

This is what happened the last time Russia ruled Ukraine. State induced famine that killed millions of people. if you don't want to help, fine fuck off. But do not start with this bullshit about oh they would be better off. Selfish clowns. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

You do not understand what is going on there. This is not a game. Yes, scorched earth is better than slavery and holocaust. Wake the fuck up and stop making this about yourself.

OK let's examine this logic change vs reality. So it's impossible for Putin to invade, but yet he surrounded Kiev for a month, he has taken Mariupol and this in spite of the west providing weapons. How did that happen if .. Putin can't win? I don't even want to get into the details. From a simple logic perspective, you are saying he couldn't invade Ukraine and yet.. he took huge portions, inspite of our weapons. Some people will believe anything, yeah I can tell.

If Russia is going to take Ukraine in the end then whose infrastructure is being destroyed?