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Posted

Exited UPS at 101

 

Trading like a devil on steroids is the only thing that works now. BJ is up like almost 50% and their financials don’t even look that great. However, I don’t think they have to worry about renewals of their store leases all that much.

Posted

Sold GILD (done care about vaccine speculation)

 

Like to take the proceed to add to my AMZN or BRK or DIS or UTX or GOOG but cannot decide

Buy them all?

Posted

Exited UPS at 101

 

Trading like a devil on steroids is the only thing that works now. BJ is up like almost 50% and their financials don’t even look that great. However, I don’t think they have to worry about renewals of their store leases all that much.

 

Crazy times call for crazy measures  :P

Posted

Sold COST. Will redeploy into names that are down way more.

Sold rest of mine too. I was sad.

Anecdotally - I shopped there yesterday (Nor Cal) and it was eerily empty.

 

Posted

Sold COST. Will redeploy into names that are down way more.

Sold rest of mine too. I was sad.

Anecdotally - I shopped there yesterday (Nor Cal) and it was eerily empty.

 

Yeah. But a few months ago 1 COST would get you 2 DIS shares. Now it's more like 4. I'm hoping to rotate back into it later, but when it's barely down and there's tons of stuff down 50% it's hard to keep it.

Posted

hey all:

 

I had a little bit of luck today!

 

Yesterday, I bought some shares of an up & coming small cap company called "Guess Jeans" (NYSE: GES) just before the market closed for about $3.80/share.

 

TODAY, I sold some covered calls (SEPT 12's for about $3.75/contract).

 

So I almost covered my cost basis, close, but not quite.  I also had to pay a small commission on the options.

 

I think the poker term for this is "free rolling"?

Posted

I bought a little DIS yesterday for $80 & sold today for $94.

Kept a bit & added it to what I already owned.

Would like to do this again.

 

Trading around other stuff with an eye towards adding on the cheap as well.

 

BRK, DIS, EW, NVO, PSX, ULTA, VDE

 

Let's hear it for stinker bids

and volatility.

Posted

Bought DIS @ 85.02 yesterday and sold today for 95.40

Bought MCD for 125.00 yesterday and sold today for 147.30.

 

I don’t usually trade much, but couldn’t pass up the one day gain and wanted to keep more dry powder for the next leg down.  I did not think the buy orders would be filled yesterday and put in similar, but lower orders in after selling.

 

 

Posted

Back to 100% cash. Sold everything i bought yesterday for a 6.5% average gain in 24 hours. I am lucky as all of my investments are in accounts where gains are tax free (I pay taxes when i withdraw the funds). This greatly simplifies the investment decision (to not have to think about taxes). This volatility is crazy.

 

Soon (next 7-14 days) we will start to see the health and economic damage in North America. Could be ugly. Happy to sit in the weeds and see what Mr Market serves up moving forward...

Posted

Any good short candidates out there?  I saw alwaysDrawing's post and it reminded me that this is a good day to put on a hedge.

 

One candidate I am looking at is AAPL.  How in the hell are people going to buy their products if they can't even pay rent?  This is a consumer discretionary company in my mind, it shouldn't be selling at 20x earnings.  Yes they have cash or tangible book but it is around 1/10 of current market cap.  I remember in GFC they sold below their net asset value (not saying that will be repeated but throwing it out for comparison).   

 

AAPL is 100% a bet on Corona virus blowing up the economy, I do not expect this to pan out otherwise. I am also almost fully invested so more a hedge against my gut that things will be okay.  I am buying relatively short duration puts (June 2020 maturity) that are deep out of the money.  If things really go to hell and apple get cut in half they could do 10-15x.

Posted

I sold the MKL purchased on March 18th for a 13% gain.  Pretty sure I will get another shot at MKL at an even lower price.

 

I don’t see this party lasting very long when all the non stimulus news is negative.

Posted

Any good short candidates out there?  I saw alwaysDrawing's post and it reminded me that this is a good day to put on a hedge.

 

One candidate I am looking at is AAPL.  How in the hell are people going to buy their products if they can't even pay rent?  This is a consumer discretionary company in my mind, it shouldn't be selling at 20x earnings.  Yes they have cash or tangible book but it is around 1/10 of current market cap.  I remember in GFC they sold below their net asset value (not saying that will be repeated but throwing it out for comparison).   

 

AAPL is 100% a bet on Corona virus blowing up the economy, I do not expect this to pan out otherwise. I am also almost fully invested so more a hedge against my gut that things will be okay.  I am buying relatively short duration puts (June 2020 maturity) that are deep out of the money.  If things really go to hell and apple get cut in half they could do 10-15x.

 

Ferrari at 40x P/FCF and Kinsale Capital (Insurance company at 6x BV) Not my original idea, but it just looks pricey.  Ferrari factory is also shut down for at least 2 weeks. 

Posted

Any good short candidates out there?  I saw alwaysDrawing's post and it reminded me that this is a good day to put on a hedge.

 

One candidate I am looking at is AAPL.  How in the hell are people going to buy their products if they can't even pay rent?  This is a consumer discretionary company in my mind, it shouldn't be selling at 20x earnings.  Yes they have cash or tangible book but it is around 1/10 of current market cap.  I remember in GFC they sold below their net asset value (not saying that will be repeated but throwing it out for comparison).   

 

AAPL is 100% a bet on Corona virus blowing up the economy, I do not expect this to pan out otherwise. I am also almost fully invested so more a hedge against my gut that things will be okay.  I am buying relatively short duration puts (June 2020 maturity) that are deep out of the money.  If things really go to hell and apple get cut in half they could do 10-15x.

 

Ferrari at 40x P/FCF and Kinsale Capital (Insurance company at 6x BV) Not my original idea, but it just looks pricey.  Ferrari factory is also shut down for at least 2 weeks.

 

Also million $ collector cars may be less important when folks are short on cash.

Posted

Just my 2c, but arent there easier targets here than a premium company that targets the ultra rich? It can/could work, but Ferrari is a great company, with a huge moat, and product with insatiable demand. Id gander Ford is a better short than Ferrari. I mean we just saw Ballmer pay $400M for a stadium-yesterday! Its possibly a one off. But its also not farfetched wealthy folks will continue to be better off than average folks. Why get cute going after a world class business when you can go after turds? Even if you hit, you still have to nail the landing trading wise, because like other best of breed companies, these do bottom and rebound hard.

 

 

Disclosure, I shorted some F today.

Posted

Any good short candidates out there?  I saw alwaysDrawing's post and it reminded me that this is a good day to put on a hedge.

 

One candidate I am looking at is AAPL.  How in the hell are people going to buy their products if they can't even pay rent?  This is a consumer discretionary company in my mind, it shouldn't be selling at 20x earnings.  Yes they have cash or tangible book but it is around 1/10 of current market cap.  I remember in GFC they sold below their net asset value (not saying that will be repeated but throwing it out for comparison).   

 

AAPL is 100% a bet on Corona virus blowing up the economy, I do not expect this to pan out otherwise. I am also almost fully invested so more a hedge against my gut that things will be okay.  I am buying relatively short duration puts (June 2020 maturity) that are deep out of the money.  If things really go to hell and apple get cut in half they could do 10-15x.

 

Ferrari at 40x P/FCF and Kinsale Capital (Insurance company at 6x BV) Not my original idea, but it just looks pricey.  Ferrari factory is also shut down for at least 2 weeks.

 

Also million $ collector cars may be less important when folks are short on cash.

 

Probably not for the 8k or so folks who buy the cars a year. Ferrari did just fine in 2008 and they'll probably do just fine now.

 

We can debate whether 40x is the right multiple (I'll bnot defend it), but I have zero concerns about the business.

Posted

ZBH

Well done! That looks like a 33% return over 8 days.

I just saw that ZBH traded at present levels in 2014. Then, they say markets are efficient.

Thanks I wish I got more. I caught a good bid for like 5 seconds. It closed up like 8% from my fill price on that day and it was a crappy day.

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