blainehodder

80% $TQQQ, 20% $TMF and no really ugly bear markets. Could do 20%-25% CAGR.

"We" think the use of collective pronouns to describe a single persons thoughts on a topic to add some sort of air of superiority actually hurts "our" investment thesis. Perhaps "they" are just out to get "us" and "our" genius ideas, and that is why "our" stock picks aren't going up.

I kind of thought buybacks were driving it up at the close from 700-770. Here it seems like a reversion where one or two big players are using that price bump to get out. Or someone knows something. Or it is random stochastic movement. Who knows? Narratives are fun but not useful. I added at 700 today.

Wading into garbage at a "cheap" valuation is not a strategy a fairly heavily concentrated investor should pursue yet we see it time and again. If you are going to buy the bottom of the barrel, you need to diversify, as you never know which ones will rocket and which will fade away. An at least moderately diversified approach to capturing market anomalies is much more likely to do well over time.

Church and Dwight. Won't happen at today's price though.

It would probably be a good idea for you to post compensation ranges for the position.

TSLA puts. Yup Im crazy.

His argument on taxes is that a) the players should and will play the game as best they can, and b) the rules need to be improved. Nothing inconsistent about it. He isn't going to forgo personal tax savings because he wants rich people to pay more in taxes. That won't make a difference. He wants the rules changed so all rich pay more in taxes. Don't hate the player, hate the game

Ben Bridge Jeweler, Borsheims, Kraft-Heinz, Fruit of the Loom.

Whats the book about Nate? I enjoy your writing and could be a future customer.

Personally I don't believe it makes sense to wipe the common. Wiping common tells prospective capital providers (that will be needed) that they can and will be pillaged by the gov at will with no repercussions. And what does that achieve vs giving the existing holders 20% crumbs? I think the risk/return on the common is much more attractive. That also completely ignores the rule of law.

https://twitter.com/JaredALevine/status/851912080420732929 They are getting 11k...after another delay?

To buy time. It is an easy band-aid solution that pushes the need to address the whole debacle until after tax reform bills.

Doing so would have cost political capital. There was really no reason to suspend the payment before tax reform determines an immediate issue, and of priority right now is the budget and debt ceiling. To have come out of left field and forced conversation on housing reform now would have been counter-productive I think. Besides, Corker has accomplished just as much with his apparent desperation. The market seems bored but this has been a good morning, imo. There is of course the option to change to an annual div instead of quarterly. Gives the appearance of non suspension while building some cushion and buying time.

Interesting take by @jesse_livermore here: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2015/05/profit-margins-in-a-winner-take-all-economy/ http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2015/01/explosion/

It is mostly hard to beat the index because the majority of index gains come from very few stocks. Most stocks lose money. If you are actively selecting stocks it is likely you will miss those winners. If you closet index you will likely select the winners but have high fees. Therefore it makes sense that few outperform the index. It is not the case that 50% of people should outperform and 50% should underperform with random concentrated stock selection given the distribution of stock gains is waited heavily to a small subsection of the index. In that scenario most should underperform with some really massive winning fund managers. The momo effect of indexing also ensures you cut losses on nearly all stocks that go to zero and are invested in all stocks that compound value by default.

If so, you better be prepared for the very serious possibility of vaporizing half of your wealth at the whims of the government.

Death spiral seems too strong a term. Aeropostale was heavily bleeding cash for 3 years before it went under, its brand was nowhere near as strong, it had no international exposure worth speaking about, gross margins were poor. Abercrombie is a much better business and a stronger brand. The positive free cash flow has only just went negative this year. Fair enough. They are yet to enter a FCF/revenue death spiral, but unless they can regain a cool image, revenue will decline and the cash burn will accelerate. I think the best move here would be to wait for the turnaround to actually begin to turn.

"This was the pre-eminent brand when I was at college 15 years ago, yet here it is seemingly at risk of going under." 15 years ago is the key point. The company is no longer hip, and they can't seem to regain that mind share. I think it is in a death spiral and will follow Aeropostale and American Apparel. I much prefer NKE, UA or LULU at today's prices. Not as cheap, but much less likely for sales to cliff dive.

https://old.ycombinator.com/munger.html

But Nate, this is fuddy duddy value small cap stuff you keep talking about Show me a 450b megacap ready to triple.

The Magic formula component of my portfolio is up over 23% this year. Value is alive and well and the magicformula is still one of the simplest value quant strats out there.

My theory:

Gets back to oddballs point: It is way more productive to read 100 simple companies' 5 page annual reports than a single BAC report,

And debt issues to hire them can be monetized without any real worry of inflation. A real shame.