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Posted
22 hours ago, nwoodman said:

You stand a good chance, the circuit breakers have been popping on the TSE 😉

Unfortunately... Too greedy of me, should have bought at 6600¥.

Posted
6 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Unfortunately... Too greedy of me, should have bought at 6600¥.

These short-covering rallies are just as fierce as the sell-offs. If this is a real deleveraging event then I am sure Mr. Market will offer up another opportunity. 

Posted
7 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

Let's hope so. 😁

 

I did sell APO and KKR on Friday so I have some cash left, used part of it to buy OWL @ 16$.

Why did you sell APO and KKR? Both solid long-term compounders. I only own KKR and still think it’s reasonably priced (25 P/E) despite YTD outperformance.

Posted (edited)

Because I was expecting them to drop substantially further on Monday if the panic continued (which they did) and I wanted some cash available to pick things up that end up really cheap (I do not have margin access in the account I hold these).

 

The recent outperformance makes me biased to buy them back, got them so much cheaper last year. 😁 I don't think they are bad at this price it's just with all this talk about a recession I am feeling greedy and want to pick things up cheaper. I know I might regret it...

 

Why your preference of KKR over APO if I may ask?

Edited by Paarslaars
Posted
5 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

Because I was expecting them to drop substantially further on Monday if the panic continued (which they did) and I wanted some cash available to pick things up that end up really cheap (I do not have margin access in the account I hold these).

 

The recent outperformance makes me biased to buy them back, got them so much cheaper last year. 😁 I don't think they are bad at this price it's just with all this talk about a recession I am feeling greedy and want to pick things up cheaper. I know I might regret it...

 

Why your preference of KKR over APO if I may ask?

I don't have a strong preference. I've read that KKR is better suited for low rate environments and APO for high rate environments, so would expect KKR to perform a bit better if/when rates get cut. Also, I follow a few hedge funds (1 Main, Greenhaven, etc.) that are long KKR. Lastly, I thought that S&P 500 index inclusion would be a catalyst for KKR (which ended up materializing and resulting in a nice pop in share price).

 

I'd love to own APO at the right price...we'll see if the market affords me that opportunity.

Posted
6 hours ago, Castanza said:

GOOGL roughly ~20x is good enough for me. Last time I added was March 2022 at a very similar valuation. 
 

FRFHF 

 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if GOOGL sells off as a result of the court decision. I will also plan to add in the next month or so as it goes down and until it finds a support level.

Posted

Added to London Dominos. Seems way too cheap here. Guided to the lower end of EBITDA. So what? 144 EBITDA vs ~1500 EV on business that's grows earnings and FCF over 10% a year. New CEO has a great track record. 

 

Fits into the Todd combs 15x fwd PE, earn more in 5 years with a 90%confidence, compound earnings at 7% with 50% confidence. 

Posted
1 hour ago, keegomaster said:

 

I wouldn't be surprised if GOOGL sells off as a result of the court decision. I will also plan to add in the next month or so as it goes down and until it finds a support level.


Honestly AMZN, AAPL, MSFT and GOOGL all looked pretty damn good. GOOGL and META are the cheapest but I’m looking at AMZN as well tbh. I was a META hater back when the metaverse spend started (and they are still spending (~4b) with Reality Labs) and it was first cheap (oof). Capex guidance is definitely the negative theme for them all and seems to be the primary reason for the pullback. Maybe this lawsuit will cause some more sell off. 
 

AMZN (34x)

- Cloud rev +19% (accelerating) 

- Operating income up +91% (2nd largest ever) 

- Operating cash flow up +75% 

- Retail grew +9% slightly under expectations. 
 

MSFT (30x)

- Azure +29% (missed by 2% due to softness in EU)

- Overall rev +15%

- Xbox/gaming +61%
- Cloud+Office products +21% 

- Net Income +10%

 

GOOGL (20x)

- Cloud) +14% (cloud is profitable now) 

- Search +14%

- YT +13% (under expectations but Operating margins up 3%)


META (24x)

- best top and bottom 

- Sales up 22%

- DAU up +7%
- Ad Impressions +10% 

- Avg price per ad  +10%
 

AAPL(31x)

- Services +14% and is 30% of rev 

- iPhone refresh coming this fall that has the new Apple intelligence. 
- Capex spending under control compared to peers +3%

- iPhone sales (1%)

 

🤷‍♂️

 

 

 


 

Posted
2 hours ago, aesophawk said:

Added to London Dominos. Seems way too cheap here. Guided to the lower end of EBITDA. So what? 144 EBITDA vs ~1500 EV on business that's grows earnings and FCF over 10% a year. New CEO has a great track record. 

 

Fits into the Todd combs 15x fwd PE, earn more in 5 years with a 90%confidence, compound earnings at 7% with 50% confidence. 

i bought some more of this today as well. I like Rennie, although sometimes wonder how DPE ended up where it is (maybe valuation just got ahead of itself there). Along with the growth in stores over the next 5 years I think they'll make a good return on the Shorecal acquistion after they operate and refranchise. The DP Poland investment is interesting, there's another DPE guy who worked with Rennie running that. Not thrilled with the comments on "additional brands" but we'll see where that goes. Fits that same bucket for me.

Posted
30 minutes ago, hasilp89 said:

i bought some more of this today as well. I like Rennie, although sometimes wonder how DPE ended up where it is (maybe valuation just got ahead of itself there). Along with the growth in stores over the next 5 years I think they'll make a good return on the Shorecal acquistion after they operate and refranchise. The DP Poland investment is interesting, there's another DPE guy who worked with Rennie running that. Not thrilled with the comments on "additional brands" but we'll see where that goes. Fits that same bucket for me.

 

The "additional brands" commentary is the only thing preventing me from making this a huge position. I think it's a homerun if they just continue investing in their business and returning everything else to shareholders. 

Posted

Some of my resting limit orders for NTDOY and OXY got exercised when I was on vacation.  I bought another 10% to my existing position in OXY this morning (about 4% position size). 

 

Still assessing the damage and deciding if anything else looks good here. 

Posted (edited)

Bought some FFH and OXY.  Small adds to NTDOY and some other names that buy periodically with pocket change, TAYD, AOS, FRPH, NEP. 

 

Unfortunately, Merrill sux and unless my account and order are specifically is set up for after hours, it won't execute a buy/sell order even if the price is reached.  So it didn't hit the limit order I had for Coupang which dropped after hours when earnings came out, and popped when the market opened 😞 

Edited by Saluki
added one more stock
Posted
On 8/6/2024 at 3:23 PM, valueventures said:

I don't have a strong preference. I've read that KKR is better suited for low rate environments and APO for high rate environments, so would expect KKR to perform a bit better if/when rates get cut. Also, I follow a few hedge funds (1 Main, Greenhaven, etc.) that are long KKR. Lastly, I thought that S&P 500 index inclusion would be a catalyst for KKR (which ended up materializing and resulting in a nice pop in share price).

 

I'd love to own APO at the right price...we'll see if the market affords me that opportunity.

APO is set to launch two etf ...Investor day Oct 1, 2024 also could be added to S&P...These could be some catalyst ..

Posted
3 hours ago, Junior R said:

APO is set to launch two etf ...Investor day Oct 1, 2024 also could be added to S&P...These could be some catalyst ..

 

APO doesn't seem to need any catalysts, it's a monster. 

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