What are you buying today?

[Red Lion]

Starter position in AAPL about 1.5% of my investment portfolio. I don't think it's a great valuation right now, but I made a mistake selling AAPL many years ago after a nice short term return. I plan to hold this long term and add a lot if we get a pullback to a significantly lower valuation. 

[Saluki]

I sold some FFH in my retirement account and bought Fairfax India.  Bought some STNG and OXY in my taxable account.  

[Red Lion]

Added APO. 

[Luke]

6 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

The brands which offer the best customer experience imo are Apple, Nintendo and Disney. They will survive and thrive under most economic conditions. Google is more indispensable than fun, but also fantastic (if ChatGPT lights a fire under their ass, so much the better). A pretty good line up at these prices. I think you can own these and have time to pick up your kids at school every day. Please pitch other contenders for best customer experience.

Customer experience for Apple i agree, Nintendo does fine, Disney made some huge errors regarding their IP and i dont know if going into streaming was the right move but both nintendo and disney have strong IP that will stay for decades imo. If the current marketcap stays with us is another story and i am not yet willing to bet on disney, nintendo looks good but havent done enough DD to enter a position. 

 

I have read a decent take on alphabets chatgpt strategy aswell, i dont know how valuable your friend is as a ressource, might be valuable, but it could very well be that alphabet has an even better product but is just not coming out with it yet. They dont have to, chatgpt is funny but it does not replace google search or anything else for me. Alphabet can just come out late after everybody revealed their hand and show the royal flush: a more refined AI integrated in the search engine and the browser everybody loves+their hardware. I am not too worried since they spent a lot of money in that space already

[Cod Liver Oil]

@Lucato clarify, when my friend at IBM (head of a large division) says AI is Alphabet’s to lose, he means they own the space and need to royally fuck up to lose their lead. I agree with you that they are strategically playing coy with their capabilities. 

[Luke]

11 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

@Lucato clarify, when my friend at IBM (head of a large division) says AI is Alphabet’s to lose, he means they own the space and need to royally fuck up to lose their lead. I agree with you that they are strategically playing coy with their capabilities. 

Got it, sorry, i am from germany, my english is good but those metaphors i sometimes dont get  Yeah, thats what i am thinking too.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1/2024 $15 calls on Silvergate Bank

 

Haven't really followed the name, but they're experiencing a bank run post-FTX collapse despite being a traditional bank where deposits are FDIC insured. 

 

Down 40% today alone. Much more over the last several months.

 

Betting that it's a knee-jerk reaction, that they'll survive, and will be well positioned in the future.

 

Also recognizing that a takeout either from another bank OR billionaire crypto investor Brendan Blumer (who controls ~17% of shares) might be on the table. 

 

[longlake95]

A little add to HPS.A 

[lnofeisone]

4 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

1/2024 $15 calls on Silvergate Bank

 

Haven't really followed the name, but they're experiencing a bank run post-FTX collapse despite being a traditional bank where deposits are FDIC insured. 

 

Down 40% today alone. Much more over the last several months.

 

Betting that it's a knee-jerk reaction, that they'll survive, and will be well positioned in the future.

 

Also recognizing that a takeout either from another bank OR billionaire crypto investor Brendan Blumer (who controls ~17% of shares) might be on the table. 

 

feels like a binary play no?

[Spekulatius]

Bought a bit on Onex from BX sales proceeds. Need to do some more research on that one. Also did the @thepupil trade with a starter in both ESS and CPT multi family Reits. Small add to GOOGL for good measure as well.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

45 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

feels like a binary play no?

 

That's why I'm using options - and OTM ones at that. 

 

The run is largely based on fear - deposits are FDIC insured. So far, credit losses have been minimal. 

 

Run seems predicated largely on concern over continued fall-out from FTX dragging other firms down (which hasn't resulted in credit losses according to the firm) and if they played role in the fraud that occurred at FTX (which I think unlikely, but possible). 

 

In either case, deposits are safe so I'd think eventually they'll return. Taking a hard hit now to manage liquidity, but there's no reason currently that deposits should be leaving at the rate they are and I imagine will begin to return once things have calmed. 

Edited January 5, 2023 by TwoCitiesCapital

[lnofeisone]

3 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

That's why I'm using options - and OTM ones at that. 

 

The run is largely based on fear - deposits are FDIC insured. So far, credit losses have been minimal. 

 

Run seems predicated largely on concern over continued fall-out from FTX dragging other firms down (which hasn't resulted in credit losses according to the firm) and if they played role in the fraud that occurred at FTX (which I think unlikely, but possible). 

 

In either case, deposits are safe so I'd think eventually they'll return. Taking a hard hit now to manage liquidity, but there's no reason currently that deposits should be leaving at the rate they are and I imagine will begin to return once things have calmed. 

I love binary plays (when they work out). Any thoughts on them being liable for FTX and/or fines that might get imposed by the regulators? Just has a feel of dead money for 2+ years.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

9 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

I love binary plays (when they work out). Any thoughts on them being liable for FTX and/or fines that might get imposed by the regulators? Just has a feel of dead money for 2+ years.

 

Hard to say.

 

But seeing as they're a traditional bank with traditional risk controls/regulations/auditors/etc., I'd be willing to bet that they're not culpable and any fraud at FTX/Alameda was FTX/Alameda alone and that they didn't aid or abet it. 

 

 

[lnofeisone]

13 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Hard to say.

 

But seeing as they're a traditional bank with traditional risk controls/regulations/auditors/etc., I'd be willing to bet that they're not culpable and any fraud at FTX/Alameda was FTX/Alameda alone and that they didn't aid or abet it. 

 

 

thanks for the idea. will look into it a bit more.

[Spekulatius]

8 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

1/2024 $15 calls on Silvergate Bank

 

Haven't really followed the name, but they're experiencing a bank run post-FTX collapse despite being a traditional bank where deposits are FDIC insured. 

 

Down 40% today alone. Much more over the last several months.

 

Betting that it's a knee-jerk reaction, that they'll survive, and will be well positioned in the future.

 

Also recognizing that a takeout either from another bank OR billionaire crypto investor Brendan Blumer (who controls ~17% of shares) might be on the table. 

 

The reason for the run doesn’t matter. They hold a bunch of securities , some HTM and some MTM that are have a fair value below the price they are held on thr balance sheet. If there is a run in the bank, they need to sell the securities and realize the losses and this will deplete their capital.

 

I think SI is probably done here, I don’t think they will survive this. They also have liabilities from money laundering etc charges that are unknown and likely one of the causes of the run on the bank. FWIW, all these banks associated with crypto that have taken deposits have huge problems.

 

Thats where regulators need to look to make sure that crypto does not impact the banking system. These banks like SI are on-ramps to crypto ecosystem and with crypto deflating there is ann impact on those FDIC insured banks.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

10 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The reason for the run doesn’t matter. They hold a bunch of securities , some HTM and some MTM that are have a fair value below the price they are held on thr balance sheet. If there is a run in the bank, they need to sell the securities and realize the losses and this will deplete their capital.

 

I think SI is probably done here, I don’t think they will survive this. They also have liabilities from money laundering etc charges that are unknown and likely one of the causes of the run on the bank. FWIW, all these banks associated with crypto that have taken deposits have huge problems.

 

Thats where regulators need to look to make sure that crypto does not impact the banking system. These banks like SI are on-ramps to crypto ecosystem and with crypto deflating there is ann impact on those FDIC insured banks.

 

It possible. They will book a $700-800 million loss on the sale of securities to cover current liquidity needs which was announced today. Will definitely impact capital levels as will the new debt issue they also announced. 

 

Maybe they don't survive. But if they do, they're probably worth quite a bit more than $300 million/$12 share. 

 

They earned $1.28/share in the Q3 alone and we're growing fairly dramatically despite the crypto drawdown over the last 12-months and did so without incurring major credit losses despite Voyager, BlockFi, Celsius, Three Arrows, etc all being points of contagion pre-FTX. 

 

Seems like their underwriting and collateral procedures were fairly robust if not for the current run on the insured deposits which only occurred post-FTX since they had a relationship there in processing payments for FTX.

 

I expect there will be some strategic partner that might step in to stabilize. They'll take a pound of flesh and my calls will likely be money good, but of course it could all go to shit. 

 

Hence the OTM calls which risk WAY less capital on the front end. 

[Castanza]

GOOGL, TSM

[frommi]

S&P500 future puts.

and more Karelia Tobacco

Edited January 9, 2023 by frommi

[Luke]

On 1/6/2023 at 8:21 PM, Castanza said:

GOOGL, TSM

+1, also added Amazon

[Luke]

I opened a very small position on Nintendo, planning to add

[Jaygo]

Bought 10K of Visa and Google with proceeds from BRK sales. Brk is down to about 20% of my portfolio.

 

$3250.00 of both TC Energy and Aritzia with my TFSA contribution on Thursday. 

 

 

I need to find some more money now. !!  

[james22]

On 1/4/2023 at 9:15 AM, Cod Liver Oil said:

The brands which offer the best customer experience imo are Apple, Nintendo and Disney. They will survive and thrive under most economic conditions

 

Disney?? They aren't far from losing half the country.

[Cod Liver Oil]

IMO, all the Disney politics is just noise. All large companies need to balance their constituencies to keep business humming along.  If too many employees, customers, shareholders or regulators are not happy, the company adjusts. Chapek was especially tone deaf.

Edited January 9, 2023 by Cod Liver Oil

[DooDiligence]

59 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

IMO, all the Disney politics is just noise. All large companies need to balance their constituencies to keep business humming along.  If too many employees, customers, shareholders or regulators are not happy, the company adjusts. Chapek was especially tone deaf.

 

I saw an old Rodney Dangerfield bit the other day where he was poking fun at hippies. "You can't tell the boys from the girls these days", yada, yada, yada.

 

Social change is always occurring and people are constantly discomfited by it. Meanwhile, Disney keeps rolling along.

 

Rowan and Martins Laugh-In lampooned all the same issues that we hear about today. The names have changed but the issues are the same.

 

People want to be entertained.

[Red Lion]

Bought back my $78 June BX puts for a nominal profit. I still think these offer a pretty good risk:reward, but since I wrote these I purchased enough stock to make BX a full position. With this purchase I currently purchased back all of my short put positions which were a nice source of profits over the second half of 2022. I have a big chunk of money in t-bills I expect to use in a real estate acquisition and renovation, but otherwise I'm now pretty well fully invested other than an employer match in my retirement sometime in the next couple months.