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What are you buying today?


LowIQinvestor

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3 hours ago, Mephistopheles said:

Congrats on Pantheon! I just bought a small position based on Twitter research. I feel one needs to be a geologist to understand the true risk reward lol. What are your thoughts?

Only geologists with access to Pantheon's data room. Without David Hobbs' input based on his team's work, I'm not making this investment, or at least not sizing it the way I did. But even Hobbs went with the 80% success probability for Alkaid 2, which strikes me as something of a guess. An informed guess, sure. The dilemma: if the oil flows commercially, this investment can change one's financial future if sized sufficiently. If it doesn't flow well, you will be facing some quasi permanent capital impairment unless one of the other plays flows. Everyone is going to have a different answer about making the investment and how to size it.

 

I won't lie--today was fun and reminds me of my $2,000 win day-trading Safeskin a few decades ago (one and only day trade--took the wife out to Chili's to celebrate). Just a few more zeroes now and I'm not in this one for 20% gains. May we both do well.

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Bought a little MMM (1% position).   This is a stalwart, some moat, long history of slowly chugging forward.  Not something you will get rich on but also priced to underperform.   It's down over 50% from all time high and now trades around 12-13x earnings with a 4.7% dividend.   Anyone else looking at this one?

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52 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

Bought a little MMM (1% position).   This is a stalwart, some moat, long history of slowly chugging forward.  Not something you will get rich on but also priced to underperform.   It's down over 50% from all time high and now trades around 12-13x earnings with a 4.7% dividend.   Anyone else looking at this one?


I owned in the past- thanks for bringing it up, I’ll take another look. Generally I was successful buying as it approaches 10x earnings and selling as it approaches 20x.

 

I also thought it would be a decent takeover target for Berkshire.

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There is very little top line growth.  They have been able to grow earnings per share by roughly double if you go back to 2007 era while paying a dividend but some of the growth is from improved margins.   However, earnings should come and go.  It's kind of a statistical bet.  Onshoring should be a benefit to them as they seem to be have a lot of domestic US operations.

 

Debt is quite low at around 2x earnings so they could probably do some share buybacks.  The company is also supposed to  spinoff it's health care unit, it's good to see management being proactive.

 

The risk here is that there is a big lawsuit around faulty earplugs.  You are speculating that they are able to settle the suit at a reasonable amount.

 

This is not something I will claim to be an expert on, i appreciate the pushback.

Edited by no_free_lunch
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7 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

Bought a little MMM (1% position).   This is a stalwart, some moat, long history of slowly chugging forward.  Not something you will get rich on but also priced to underperform.   It's down over 50% from all time high and now trades around 12-13x earnings with a 4.7% dividend.   Anyone else looking at this one?

 

I've been writing puts on this name, seems reasonably cheap to me.

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