What are you buying today?

[Viking]

Added to Fairfax India at under $10. The only unknown is how much money i am going to make… and the timing. Like shooting fish in a barrel.

[CorpRaider]

Ebay

[fareastwarriors]

Ckx and msgs

[Red Lion]

Put on short term QQQ debit put spreads. I've been doing this with SPY to hedge, but QQQ might be more appropriate. 

[formthirteen]

ICE

[CorpRaider]

LAMR

[bennycx]

37 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

ICE

Any opinion on the decline of the mortgage business due to rising rates?

[Red Lion]

Approximately doubled my position in BX at 89.94. 
 

 

[Gregmal]

On 8/26/2022 at 5:11 PM, Gregmal said:

Yea I think it varies. All I own is some October and November IWM puts. The Oct $180 strike for instance went from $2.6-2.8 to now $5. I’ll probably hold it for a few more weeks. Obviously we need to start getting worked up for the September rate hike. I’ve heard the world ends with a 3.5-4% Fed funds rate. So you wanna sell just before everything goes to black.

Took some of these off and split the proceeds into Fairfax and some Novembers.

[formthirteen]

2 hours ago, bennycx said:

Any opinion on the decline of the mortgage business due to rising rates?

 

Seems like a small issue. One of the VIC write-ups had this to say about ICE revenue composition:

 

 35%: Market data (pricing & analytics, exchange data feeds, etc.)
 27%: Derivatives trading & clearing (Brent oil and other energy futures, agricultural and metals futures, European interest rate futures, etc.)

 10%: Transaction-based mortgage revenues (Ellie Mae, MERS, and Simplifile revenues tied to mortgage volumes)
 7%: Recurring mortgage revenues (Ellie Mae subscription revenues not tied to mortgage volumes)

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Added more WRK and few other small adds here and there.

[WayWardCloud]

Charter via Liberty Broadband. The market is pricing in the beginning of yet another classic "Malone incinerates a fortune buying back a melting ice cube to the death" and I just don't see it

[Gregmal]

Posted in wrong thread but added a bit more PCYO in last hour of trading. Here’s hoping Harding wakes the heck up.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Gregmal

[Spekulatius]

17 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Posted in wrong thread but added a bit more PCYO in last hour of trading. Here’s hoping Harding wakes the heck up.

I also bought some PCYO but paid a bit more than you (~$9.4). Had a position before but opportunistically traded out of if a short time ago and wanted exposure back.

 

With microcaps, buybacks rarely happen because the CEO are often concerned about reducing liquidity even more and also have quite obscure frameworks for capital allocation. Big picture - you get PCYO for COVID-19 prices but with better fundamentals.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Gregmal]

5 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I also bought some PCYO but paid a bit more than you (~$9.4). Had a position before but opportunistically traded out of if a short time ago and wanted exposure back.

 

With microcaps, buybacks rarely happen because the CEO are often concerned about reducing liquidity even more and also have quite obscure frameworks for capital allocation. Big picture - you get PCYO for COVID-19 prices but with better fundamentals.

Way better. I know Mark and he hates the idea of debt or levering up, but cash build could reach $40m by year end with no debt and minor future spending obligation. Lot deliveries have largely been satisfied. Tap fees are freebies from here. If they wanted a LOC and bank facility liquidity probably would stand around $80-100m.
 

When the market tanks I’d prefer this trade a little more like FRPH, when it rebounds I’m glad it doesn’t lol. Just how it goes I guess.

[fareastwarriors]

Joining the party. $PCYO too

 

and more CKX and MSGS. 

[Gregmal]

10 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said:

Joining the party. $PCYO too

 

and more CKX and MSGS. 

If inflation is real, sure the discount rates move. But hard assets with real earning and net cash should at some point call bullshit on the stock market. Or we deteriorate into an economic depression and then I just wallow with my semi illiquid land, energy, and sports teams. Still trying to figure it all out. PCYO and CKX have big chunk of cash that even if not put to a more aggressive use can now collect interest. FRPH too.

[ACooke]

PCYO too - almost a full position for me now - I've been buying from ~$11 down, added a chunk more today - might take another swing if we see something in the mid $8's.

 

Also TPB - I think you can scratch the New Gen seg and you're getting some solid brands in ZZ and Stokers at a sub 10 earnings multiple. I think their sales should be reasonably sticky in a recessionary environment, they should have some pricing power. I think it's likely they can grow top and bottom line at something around mid - high single digits, especially if there's some cross synergies with the Clipper acquisition. Potentially some tailwinds from further weed legalization.

 

There's potential vaping takes share of the joint market which wouldn't be ideal, and more stringent cigarette laws hinder paper sales but they'll hopefully have some horses in that race if that's the case.

 

I think there's plenty of 'free options' in their New Gen seg and some of their minority holdings.

 

The new CEO concerns me a little - mildly concerned that he may be a bit of a Malone wannabe without the capacity to pull it off. Debt levels also something that needs to be monitored.

[Spekulatius]

@ACooke re TPB I agree with your assessment. It’s one of my biggest losers (in terms of % loss). I have been adding just a little recently, but my concerns with the CEO (no consumer goods experience) prevent me from getting in bigger.

 

I think they should sell or close down the NewGen (vape) business

[jfan]

18 hours ago, formthirteen said:

 

Seems like a small issue. One of the VIC write-ups had this to say about ICE revenue composition:

 

 35%: Market data (pricing & analytics, exchange data feeds, etc.)
 27%: Derivatives trading & clearing (Brent oil and other energy futures, agricultural and metals futures, European interest rate futures, etc.)

 10%: Transaction-based mortgage revenues (Ellie Mae, MERS, and Simplifile revenues tied to mortgage volumes)
 7%: Recurring mortgage revenues (Ellie Mae subscription revenues not tied to mortgage volumes)

 

 

 

The one yellow flag for me with them is the discordance between they willingness to pay down their debt after an acquisition despite speaking about it publicly. The second yellow flag is it seems that there is a transition process occurring with Jeff out of the CEO role over the past year with him bring his top managers into the spotlight.

[ourkid8]

More BABA to bring down my cost.  

[sleepydragon]

1 hour ago, ourkid8 said:

More BABA to bring down my cost.  

 

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, ourkid8 said:

More BABA to bring down my cost.  

Any idea why BABA is down today ? I didn't see any relevant news.

 

The explanations I saw in the IBKR news feed seem unconvincing (Rate hikes etc.).

[sleepydragon]

There’s a research from JPM analyst Alex Yao (same analyst who called baba uninvestable) about Chinese cloud, saying SOEs will take more shares away from baba and Tencent.

 

 

[sleepydragon]

39 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Any idea why BABA is down today ? I didn't see any relevant news.

 

The explanations I saw in the IBKR news feed seem unconvincing (Rate hikes etc.).