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ACooke

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  1. Just jumped in to post this, too. Well worth a read.
  2. I think it got pretty poor reviews but I loved it. Great movie (although I'd guess I enjoy the subject matter more than the average viewer). There's a book called Gold Rush by Jim Richards - it's a bio about a geologist hoping to fund and float his own mining business. He starts out prospecting for gold in Guyana, heads down to Brazil and a bunch of other places - oil in the middle east, Diamonds in Australia and at one stage gets caught up in the Bre-X fraud. Really interesting book if you enjoy that sort of topic. Easy read, too. It's probably more 'adventure' than it is geology heavy.
  3. I agree - they may do so. They've scaled back capex within the seg as far as I'm aware - I guess whether they make a further push or continue winding it down somewhat will depend on the PMTA outcome. Even if they're successful there, I'm not certain a whole lot comes of their in-house brands. I wonder what they could part the seg out for - surely the E-commerce side of it is worth *something*. As for the CEO - there's not many positives I could find spoken about him from his last role although that was mainly from forums and blogs. I can't recall the magazine exactly but it was a motorsport magazine which in his defence - i think any time you move in to a niche, cultish (too strong of a word here but meh) type hobby and start making business-savvy changes - you're asking for push back from fans. Bobby Kotick is probably a good example on a much grander scale. He's certainly an unknown quantity at the very least.
  4. PCYO too - almost a full position for me now - I've been buying from ~$11 down, added a chunk more today - might take another swing if we see something in the mid $8's. Also TPB - I think you can scratch the New Gen seg and you're getting some solid brands in ZZ and Stokers at a sub 10 earnings multiple. I think their sales should be reasonably sticky in a recessionary environment, they should have some pricing power. I think it's likely they can grow top and bottom line at something around mid - high single digits, especially if there's some cross synergies with the Clipper acquisition. Potentially some tailwinds from further weed legalization. There's potential vaping takes share of the joint market which wouldn't be ideal, and more stringent cigarette laws hinder paper sales but they'll hopefully have some horses in that race if that's the case. I think there's plenty of 'free options' in their New Gen seg and some of their minority holdings. The new CEO concerns me a little - mildly concerned that he may be a bit of a Malone wannabe without the capacity to pull it off. Debt levels also something that needs to be monitored.
  5. I've never really spent any time learning about call spreads and so forth. The goal here is just to juice your return, rather than lock in a spread or similar - as you might see done with long/short hedging and so forth. So if the deal closes you're return is the spreads ($15 - $5 = $10). Plus and minus the premiums ($3.30 -$8.70 = $5.40) = $4.60. So 186% is returned (86% ROI). This is better than buying the $8.70 call in isolation and the deal closing, returning 172% (72% ROI). Similarly the $3.35 $90 call nets less again at ~50%. Now I've typed the out a feel a little dense and the above seems clear. If I'm missing something I'll go ahead and spend some time on it myself rather than asking to be spoon fed.
  6. I can only wish - at least for now. I’m a couple of thousand kilometers (miles ) away from you lot. I can assure you, i’m extremely envious though.
  7. I've been watching 'Gold Rush' lately, namely the 'white water' seasons - mainly because it's fairly brainless and intriguing as to how they rig and build things to tackle certain scenarios they fall upon whilst being in the middle of nowhere and for some reason I'm always fascinated by prospecting and mining in general. I'd love to know their actual spend each year - I feel like I'm continually doing the math in my head (and it's very simple math) of how much their pulling in vs what they're likely spending, before the crew takes home a cent. It's truly brutal. I'm sure they're probably floated (excuse the pun) or supplemented to some extent by the film producers, and no doubt a chunk of it's mashed together in odd orders and over dramatized; but if what they show and suggest is in any way indicative of the true economics of an operation like that ------ mannnnn it boggles thy mind. Fun - if slightly repetitive - watch though.
  8. I don't use an awful lot either. I use a PDF editor - Microsoft Edge atm - in which I highlight and take short notes on 10k's and such. As I work through an idea I'll take longer notes and grab quotes etc. from call transcripts and other docs which I do in Microsoft Word and I'll eventually paste them in to the main document - the pdf - I've been taking notes on - usually the most recent 10k/AR. I'll also typically pen and paper up a bunch of stuff in a note book as I go - usually I'll compile important financial data here - work through a valuation model - draw cap structures if they're complex or a breakdown of subsidiaries and such and note some of the more objective and concrete things I'm using to build my valuation or want to keep tabs on. So I pretty much end up with the most recent 10k which I've blanked a few pages on and copy pasted some notes from a bunch of sources over the top - this typically runs 2 - 4 pages and my literal paper notebook which will have a 1 or 2 pager which shows how I've worked through a valuation, inclusive of any scribbling, adjusting I do (I find it easier to note and easier to retain if I do it there) plus anything I want to draw/diagram. I'll throw some brief notes on the pdf doc too outlining what I came up with valuation wise so it's easy and quick to address. The thing I'd like most (although not enough to pay for it - clearly ha ha) is a site that does 10yr (or longer) financials for a bunch of markets. QuickFS is great for US, Can, Uk but outside of that I find it tricky to find anything that's consistent. TIKR was good - I should probably just suck it up and pay.
  9. Just finishing this up now. Great, entertaining book on the Wirecard blow up. It always amazes me how these things float along for so long and the level of push back any pessimism - no matter how objective and provable - is given from regulatory and financial institutions. it's literally like they block their eyes and ears and repeatedly sing 'la la la, we can't hear you, la la la'; it's utterly absurd. Anyway - pretty easy and entertaining read - not financially heavy. Similar to something like Red Notice, Billion dollar whale, blood and oil. Certainly worthwhile picking up if financial shenanigans is your jam.
  10. I find it difficult to get my head around the market being at ATH's again by year-end. If margins continue to compress like they have been for many industries (without considering total sales) - input costs, supply chain issues, energy, labour, interest etc. - then assuming actual stock price/market cap is what's referred to, that'd involve some pretty meaningful multiple expansion; all the whilst we'll almost certainly still be dealing with inflated input costs and so forth. Keeping in mind valuations were very high pre this draw down. Seems like a big ask to me, I tend to think we probably go lower and almost certainly go longer, but then again - I have minimal faith in my ability to predict 'Mr. Market'.
  11. Almost through this one - truly fascinating. Essentially as the title suggests it's a diary from ~1930 through ~1940 America from the viewpoint of a small business owner - a lawyer - who's keenly interested (and very intelligible) in the securities markets, business, economic policy and politics of the time. Very intriguing to hear him think through what might be best practises for the time and forecast what he believes is to come, all the whilst real estate is being repossessed but unable to be moved on from bank's balance sheets, causing banks to close their doors. The world is bouncing between deflationary and inflationary scares, war and poverty, and whiplashing securities markets. Fascinating as to how brutal the period was. A lot of stuff can be related to today but most is difficult to imagine happening *here* again (at least for me).
  12. Sourcing/time drag is probably my largest concern here too, was hoping I'd grab an idea or two from this thread which has been fantastic so far - great hearing everyone's input. There's been a fair bit of commentary re. risk arb/special situations on some podcasts and blogs lately which is probably the main reason I'm considering throwing a basket together - plenty of stuff floating around and some decent looking spreads. Do you just equal weight for the most part? I think equal weighting say a 10% chunk or whatever of you're portfolio makes sense if: You're not bringing much to the table in regards to likelihood of closure. You're not wanting to spend a hefty sum of time on each situation.
  13. Has anyone considered throwing together a basket of merger-arbs? To be forth-coming, I don't bring much to the table in regards to the likelihood of certain deals closing or breaking which is why I'm intrigued by taking a basket approach. There seems to be a stack of pretty juicy spreads around; presumably many of these will close at close to current terms, and some will break. Assuming the above is correct and with regards to some of the current spreads - it seems at first pass that a basket of these could net some reasonably low risk, decent, and market-neutral returns. Would be interested if anyone is playing around with this approach. Again, I haven't much to add outside of a set of keen eyes.
  14. Mike's awesome - funny dude, too. The Stronger by Science and 3dmj guys are unreal as well, as is Jeff Nippard (if you're in to the non-PED side of things anyway).
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