What are you buying today?

[cubsfan]

ValueADD - thanks for comments on share count. Seemed way too cheap in my quick ratios.

I'm confused as well.  

 

My quick scan gave me this result, so I may have sharecount botched.

 

I showed Yum @ 6X sales, MCD @ 9X sales, CMG @ 7X sales, SHAK @ 5X sales - with PTLO @ 2X sales

[Spekulatius]

I think the right sharecount is 71.5M shares outstanding after the IPO based on 33.6M/0.47=71.5M shares. the yahoo/finance market cap is off. I guess they only count the A shares but not the LLC units, which are economically equivalent.

 

Their NPS is on par with Chick Fill-A. I think their locations are more expensive. it not an explosive grower, the add a few locations every year. Revenues are ~ 516M / year if you annualize their 6 month revenue numbers.

 

I am getting an EV of 71.5M (shares)*$30+~300M debt = $2445M EV so a P/S of 4.74. Please feel free to correct me where I am wrong.

 

Probably a ~10% grower. It's not a cheap stock, imo.

 

 

 

71.5*30+300

 

[Gregmal]

Yea its 71

[cubsfan]

^ Thanks for the help guys - I blew the share count. So your P/S of 4.74 is accurate. So not so cheap..

PTLO will grow. The average Portillo does around $7.5M in sales vs MCD average around $2.5+.

Footprint is larger. Catering business is significant and drive through business is spectacular and

very well run. One to keep an eye on. Company has talked about 10% new openings per year.

 

[Gregmal]

I think one thing to keep in mind with restaurant growers, is that a good concept is incredibly valuable and you probably dont want them when theyre "cheap". The mature ones, sure, but thats a different type of investment. The early stage runway stuff I think is very different and a powerful brand can work almost by itself. Wingstop baffled me for years. Wings and tenders, WTF. But cult following, small store base to grow off, and solid execution made it work. If one wants to chase cheap garbage TAST has been luring value investors for years. However I think a more appropriate comp here might be something like SHAK. Especially as blue state migration continues, these awesome city concepts have room to move around and will undoubtedly have fans in much of the country dying for their hometown favorites. With 70 stores or so they say 10% a year but frankly I think if things keep ticking up they can pull forward a lot of growth and surprise to the upside. Not a big position at all, just took a starter today, but I like the idea. 

[Value_Added]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

I think the right sharecount is 71.5M shares outstanding after the IPO based on 33.6M/0.47=71.5M shares. the yahoo/finance market cap is off. I guess they only count the A shares but not the LLC units, which are economically equivalent.

 

Their NPS is on par with Chick Fill-A. I think their locations are more expensive. it not an explosive grower, the add a few locations every year. Revenues are ~ 516M / year if you annualize their 6 month revenue numbers.

 

I am getting an EV of 71.5M (shares)*$30+~300M debt = $2445M EV so a P/S of 4.74. Please feel free to correct me where I am wrong.

 

 

 

 

 

This makes perfect sense and I see that number represented here:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However, my continued confusion comes from their most recent quarterly filing in which they mention this reverse split that occurred around the time of their IPO yet wasn't mentioned in their IPO filing.  Their IPO filing which you've posted above, shows about 378m shares outstanding, yet it also shows as I've highlighted from the same document that the total number of LLC units is 71.5m.

 

Now if we look at the newest quarterly report and account for the 7.4 to 1 reverse split they mention, it equals roughly the number of shares outstanding in this quarterly filing (51m). The only way to get there is to start with 378m shares...

 

I'm not a guru at financial statements and am by no means correcting anyone, but it really seems there are discrepancies between the filings.  Are you all pretty certain that its 71.5m and it is just misrepresented on the newest filing?  Trying to dig into the business and this is throwing me off.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Well, 378M/7.4 (reverse split)= 51M shares + 20M (IPO offering) also gets you to ~71M shares. Different path but same result.

[Value_Added]

1 minute ago, Spekulatius said:

Well, 378M/7.4 (reverse split)= 51M shares + 20M (IPO offering) also gets you to ~71M shares. Different path but same result.

 

PERFECT, thanks.  I knew I was missing something, but just couldn't figure it out.  I appreciate it, I always learn a lot from this forum.

[Gregmal]

IPO was 23m but yea. What spek said basically 

[fareastwarriors]

More VICI

[ERICOPOLY]

On 1/12/2022 at 2:26 PM, Gregmal said:

Especially as blue state migration continues, these awesome city concepts have room to move around and will undoubtedly have fans in much of the country dying for their hometown favorites. With 70 stores or so they say 10% a year but frankly I think if things keep ticking up they can pull forward a lot of growth and surprise to the upside. Not a big position at all, just took a starter today, but I like the idea. 

 

Have you looked at Dutch Bros (BROS)?  There is always a line at my local Dutch Bros.

 

This is an interesting story:  https://archive.totalfratmove.com/apparently-dutch-bros-coffee-is-making-college-kids-rich-af/

[Gregmal]

Have not heard of Dutch Bros. More good reading to do!

[ERICOPOLY]

Dutch Bros is what our teens crave.

[Gregmal]

Yea kids have opened my eyes to certain stuff that otherwise I wouldn’t get myself. Nintendo and Roblox come to mind. I don’t get the younger age groups, but shit that’s addictive, educational, and engrained at early ages is probably somewhere a good formula for business opportunities. Or the brands they love early and often. That’s how to grab a long term customer.

[Gregmal]

Added a little Mickey Mouse at the open.

[Thrifty3000]

22 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Added a little Mickey Mouse at the open.

@gregmal I feel like you rattle off more investments than Jim Cramer. Haha. How many positions are in your portfolio?

[Gregmal]

1 minute ago, Thrifty3000 said:

@gregmal I feel like you rattle off more investments than Jim Cramer. Haha. How many positions are in your portfolio?

 About 60. 

[Thrifty3000]

37 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

 About 60. 

Well color me impressed. That's a bunch.

[Gregmal]

Eh its overstated though. Ive got like 80% in the top 10 investments or so. Bunch of trackers and stuff. DIS is mid single digit %,

[lnofeisone]

Added CVE/W and bought starter C (sold remainder WFC).

[3259]

2 hours ago, Gregmal said:

About 60. 

Whaaaaat? You're making me nervous. The way you talk about AIV, CLPR, & MSGE, I figured that would be 30% of your portfolio right there. I might have a larger weight in your ideas than you do! haha.

[Gregmal]

5 minutes ago, 3259 said:

Whaaaaat? You're making me nervous. The way you talk about AIV, CLPR, & MSGE, I figured that would be 30% of your portfolio right there. I might have a larger weight in your ideas than you do! haha.

 

Its roughly around there. 

[Gregmal]

MSGE low teens

AIV high single digits but more options than common so notional is close to double

CLPR ~4% after swinging some of that into ALX in 250s. My NYC basket of CLPR, VRE and ALX is low teens total. 

 

These # are for informational and entertainment purposes only though. Not advice. 

[Monsieur_dee]

Wix

[Value_Added]

12 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

MSGE low teens

AIV high single digits but more options than common so notional is close to double

CLPR ~4% after swinging some of that into ALX in 250s. My NYC basket of CLPR, VRE and ALX is low teens total. 

 

These # are for informational and entertainment purposes only though. Not advice. 

 

how about BKEP?  Do you just use it as a cash substitute until you find better investments or are you long and looking for the potential long term upside, or a combination of both?